*** Paul Piorek is editor and publisher of Paul's Local Weather Journal for southwestern Connecticut ... Paul is the on-air meteorologist at WICC 600 AM and 107.3 FM ... Paul is a New York Emmy award winner (2007), five-time Emmy nominee, and four-time winner of the Connecticut Associated Press Broadcasters' Association award for Best TV Weathercast (2006, 2008, 2009, 2012) ... Paul was voted Best Local Television Personality by the readers of Fairfield County Weekly Magazine (2012) ... Paul was inducted into the Housatonic Community College Hall of Fame and received the Distinguished Alumni Award (2012) ... The local weather journal is a two-time winner of the Communicator Award of Distinction (2012 & 2013) ... Paul is currently a full-time teacher of Earth Science and Mathematics in Fairfield ... Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulPiorekWICC ...

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Time-Lapse Video of Storm Surge

This time-lapse video, courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk, shows people putting sand in bags to protect their property from flooding the day before Sandy's arrival. The surge happened at close to midnight, and with the loss of power, he was unable to record the entire effect of the surge.

However, take a look at the swelling of the Sound and the rare waves. The camera was chained to a flag pole. Sand and ocean debris came onshore about a quarter-mile inland. There were "feet of sand" in spots.



 Paul

Hurricane Sandy Causes Death & Destruction to Region

Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the Eastern seaboard with powerful winds, record-low pressure, and historic tidal surges. The hurricane, which brought heavy rain and flooding across the mid-Atlantic region, made its heralded landfall near Atlantic City, N.J., around 8 p.m. Monday evening. It arrived slightly earlier than originally projected because it had picked up speed, moving at about 28 mph.

Although our region was spared the heavy rainfall, winds increased throughout the day Monday, reaching a peak wind gust of 76 miles-an-hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford Monday evening. The hurricane-force gusts resulted in massive power outages, downed trees and power lines, and three deaths in Connecticut.

Unfortunately, the storm came during a Full Moon, causing a storm surge of 10 feet at Bridgeport harbor late Monday night. Sandy's strength and angle of approach combined to produce a record storm surge of water into New York City. The surge level at Battery Park topped 13.88 feet at 9:24 p.m. Monday, surpassing the 10.02 feet record water level set by Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The local shoreline communities, especially Fairfield and Milford, were hit hardest. Many homes, which had been hammered by Tropical Storm Irene just over a year earlier, were severely damaged or destroyed by Sandy. Here is a video of the storm surge at nearby St. Mary's by the Sea in Bridgeport.


 
Flooding prevented some homeowners from even getting to their homes near the beach in Fairfield. People were getting around by kayaks and canoes in the shoreline neighborhood, which was buzzing with the sound of pumps taking water out of houses. At one point Tuesday, United Illuminating reported that 100% of its Fairfield customers were without power. Schools were closed at least through Friday, and Fairfield Ludlowe High School opened a shelter for displaced residents and pets.

An Easton volunteer firefighter died while clearing debris in front of a fire truck Monday night on Judd Road. Lt. Russell Neary was struck by a falling limb. The body of a missing 34-year-old man, who was last seen swimming in the heavy surf after jumping from a pier Monday evening,  was recovered in Milford. Also, a 90-year-old Mansfield woman was killed and two family members were seriously injuted when a tree fell on them during the storm Monday.

More than 750,000 people were reported to have lost power across the region. Cities including Washington and Boston closed their mass-transit systems. Schools were closed, and shelters began to fill with hundreds of thousands of people ordered to leave their homes and seek safety. Wall Street trading was disrupted, as were political campaigns throughout the region just eight days before election day. Here is a view of the waves at Laurel Beach in Milford.


When hurricane hunter aircraft measured its central pressure at 940 millibars -- 27.76 inches -- Monday afternoon, it was the lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The previous record holder was the 1938 "Long Island Express" Hurricane, which dropped as low as 946 millibars. Here is a time-lapsed loop of the surface pressure around Hurricane Sandy beginning October 26th.

 

 Paul

Friday, October 26, 2012

Prepare Now for Sandy's Arrival

Now is the time to prepare for the impending coastal storm, which should arrive Sunday night through Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center is expecting Sandy to make landfall late Monday night and early Tuesday morning across southern New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic. However, the GFS model, which indicated that Sandy would move out to sea earlier this week, is moving the storm over Old Saybook Monday night. If that scenario unfolds, it would be devastating for southwestern Connecticut.

The biggest issue with the impending storm will be the wind. Tropical storm force winds may gust between 60 and 70 miles an hour Monday into Tuesday. Naturally, power outages will be more than likely, considering what happened last year during Tropical Storm Irene and the October Nor'easter. Coastal communities need to take extra precautions due to the strong Southeast wind and astronomically high tides due to the Full Moon.



The Full Hunter's Moon happens this Monday at 3:50 p.m. EDT. The tide will be high at Bridgeport harbor Sunday at 11:21 p.m., Monday at 11:33 a.m., Monday night at 11:59 p.m., and Tuesday at 11:33 a.m. The tides are forecast to crest at 6.88 feet Sunday night, 7.59' Monday midday, and 6.81' Monday night. However, expect much higher tides due to the Full Moon and the tropical storm force winds. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are more than likely.

As of 8 o'clock this morning, Sandy was a category one hurricane with 80 mile-an-hour winds, located about 480 miles South-Southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. It's moving Northeast at 10 miles an hour, and the central pressure is 28.64 inches. Here is the projected forecast map for Hurricane Sandy.


There are several things you can do to prepare for such a storm. First, make sure your roof gutters and storm drains are cleared of any leaves, dirt, or debris. They're bound to be clogged this time of the year due to the falling leaves. If you have a sump pump or pumps in your basement, test them before the storm hits. Have flashlights, batteries, bottled water, and canned food in case the power is out for an extended period of time. Also, make sure your car and generator --- if you have one --- are full of gas. You don't want to have an empty tank during a severe storm. Let's hope for the best.

Paul

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Tracking Hurricane Sandy

Here is my latest forecast for Hurricane Sandy and its potential impact on southwestern Connecticut Monday and Tuesday of next week:


Sandy Forecast by PaulWXman

Paul

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Drama Over Tropical Storm Sandy Continues to Unfold

The drama of Tropical Storm Sandy continues to unfold this week. The big question is how much of an effect the storm will have on southwestern Connecticut late this weekend into the start of next week. The European model is suggesting a huge impact on southwestern Connecticut. Once the storm passes over Cuba, we'll have a much better idea as to where it is headed. A hurricane or tropical storm in mid-to-late October is extremely rare. However, if the storm does strike, it would occur on the one-year anniversary of last October's memorable Nor'easter.

The various computer models for early next week continue to show Tropical Storm "Sandy" moving north out of the Caribbean, while an upper level trough of low pressure swings eastward from the Midwest. There is a decent consensus that the trough will interact with "Sandy" and will continue to support its northward movement. However, the exact position of these steering features will ultimately determine whether the storm impacts the Eastern United States or stays chiefly out to sea.


So the range of possibilities is still anywhere from "no impact" (GFS model) to a very significant impact (European and Canadian models). But an extremely unusual upper-air pattern and storm track would be required for the worse-case scenario of heavy rain and winds. So, we are still at the "wait and see" stage for this potential system, which again could have a minimal impact or a significant impact or something in between.

Joe Rao, the meteorologist at News 12 Westchester, wrote, "Actually I have come up with an analog, but it involves a Winter set-up: The Blizzard of February 6 &7, 1978. Those of us "old timers" will remember that on Monday morning, February 6, 1978, a low pressure system was positioned 175 miles east of Elizabeth City, North Carolina. It would have passed harmlessly out to sea well to our south, except there was a rapidly digging shortwave cutting across the Great Lakes that ultimately captured and intensified the offshore low before the morning was over, literally dragging it back toward the mainland on a highly anomalous northwest trajectory (sound familiar?).

"Eventually, the shortwave and the surface low became 'vertically stacked' south of Long Island, where the storm took 24-hours to perform a small 'loop-de-loop' before finally moving on its way late on February 7. Parts of Long Island and southern New England were buried with three to four feet of snow. Tropical cyclones that adversely affect the Northeast US usually move either on southwest-to-northeast or south-to-north paths; but I don't ever remember a tropical system coming at us on a southeast to northwest track."  

At any rate, it should be a very interesting couple of days ahead. As for the short-term forecast, today will be mostly cloudy and cool with light sprinkles or a few light showers and a high temperature in the lower 60s. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a low of 44 to 52 degrees. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of afternoon sun and a high in the lower 60s. Friday and Saturday look fine. But the big question mark occurs later Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned.

Paul

Monday, October 22, 2012

October a Harbinger of Winter?

Here we go again. This month's average temperature is running nearly two degrees (+1.9) above normal through yesterday. If October's daily average temperature finishes above normal, it will mark the 20th straight warmer-than-normal month across southwestern Connecticut. The last time the average monthly temperature fell below normal was February of 2011.

However, the warmer-than-normal average temperature this month may carry more significance as far the as the long-term forecast is concerned. Ralph Fato took a closer look at the October mean temperature departures for Bridgeport and Syracuse, New York, since 1990 and compared the results to the subsequent four months to see if there was any correlation.

Interestingly, seven out of nine times (78%) when October's average temperature was above normal by at least +0.50 degrees, the following Winter was warmer-than-normal. The only two exceptions were the Winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11. Take a look at the following chart which Ralph created. Click the chart to see a larger version.


The Winters of 1990-91, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures each month from October through February. The two colder-than-normal Winters which followed mild Octobers are prominent on the graph. You'll see the red outline below the normal (0 degrees) average temperature.

It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues this year. All signs are pointing to a colder and snowier Winter-than-normal, but the climatological statistics don't lie: a warmer-than-normal October leads to a milder Winter nearly 80 percent of the time over the last 22 years! Thanks, Ralph.

Paul

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Orionid Meteor Showers to Peak This Sunday Morning

It may not be quite as exciting as the baseball playoffs or the political debates, but another meteor shower arrives this week. The Orionids have a very broad peak from October 17 through October 25, so just about any night should be good for observing, weather permitting. However, the meteor shower will peak early this coming Sunday morning. The meteor shower normally produces up to 20 "shooting stars" visible per hour before dawn, given good sky conditions.

“We expect to see about 25 meteors per hour when the shower peaks on Sunday morning, October 21st,” says Bill Cooke, the head of NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office. “With no Moon to spoil the show, observing conditions should be ideal. The Orionid meteor shower isn’t the strongest, but it is one of the most beautiful showers of the year. It really is a wonderful morning to be awake,” added Cooke. “Just don’t plan on going anywhere in a hurry.”



So, what are the Orionids? They are bits of debris shed long ago by Halley's Comet which the Earth intersects during its annual orbit around the Sun. The comet last came through the Solar System in 1985-86, and its nucleus shed a layer of dirty ice about six meters thick on average. During that time the dirt bits have spread all around Halley's orbit, which is why some of the particles now intersect the Earth even though the comet's orbit does not. The first known Orionid shower was recorded by the Chinese in 288 AD when "stars fell like rain." Astronomers first recognized it in 1864.

Across southwestern Connecticut, the meteor shower rises high in the Eastern sky, at least 45 degrees high, by 2 a.m. That's when the meteor activity begins to reach its peak. To watch the Orionids comfortably, bundle up, and bring a lawn chair. Find a dark spot with an open view of the sky. The less light pollution, the better the view will be. Sky and Telescope Magazine encourages viewers to "Arrange the chair so that any bright lights are behind you out of sight, bundle up, lie back, and watch the stars. Be patient."

We certainly won't be able to see the Orionids tonight or tomorrow night since an approaching storm will bring periods of moderate-to-heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm. But, conditions are expected to improve this weekend, just in time for the peak viewing of the meteor shower. Saturday will feature a few early showers followed by gradual clearing, while Sunday will offer a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 60s. Enjoy the show.

Paul

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Photos Illustrate the Beauty of Autumn

Ralph Fato of Norwalk took these following photos which display the beauty of Autumn in southwestern Connecticut. Ralph is a regular contributor to this site, and is a photographer, weather observer, and weather historian.


Paul

Monday, October 15, 2012

Remembering the Devastating Flood of October 14 & 15, 1955

The following was written by Brent M. Colley on the 50th anniversary of the October 14 & 15 devastating flood and printed by the Norwalk River Watershed Association

In 1955, the worst natural disasters to strike Connecticut since the hurricane of 1938 occurred within a two-month span. Two hurricanes, one tropical storm, and a pair of floods ravaged homes and businesses throughout the state in the months of August and October.

The August disaster was a result of back-to-back hurricanes in mid-August 1955. Hurricanes Connie and Diane arrived toward the end of a wetter-than-usual Summer, combining to drop over 24 inches of rain on the Northern regions of Connecticut between August 13th and August 20th, leaving record levels of flooding and widespread havoc in their wake.



Many Connecticut rivers, particularly the Housatonic, Naugatuck, Still, Quinebaug, Mad, and Farmington, overflowed their banks as never before; towns and cities in Litchfield and Hartford counties were particularly hard hit. The downtowns of many cities were devastated, including Winsted where the downtown was completely washed away. Property damage mounted into the tens of millions of dollars. Almost 100 people were killed, an estimated 4,700 were injured, and countless others were left homeless.

Surprisingly, towns and residents of the Norwalk and Saugatuck Watershed in the Southwestern section of Connecticut did not sustain rainfall accumulations as high as those to the north and were spared of flood conditions in August. Their time was yet to come.


The Cross Street Bridge in Norwalk, underwater, collapsed, and buried in debris. This was the highway from New York to Boston.

In October, a four day tropical storm dumped an additional 12-14 inches of rain on southwestern New England. This event was not as widespread as the August storms; however, the Flood of October, 1955, was devastating to the local communities along the Norwalk and Saugatuck Rivers. Millions of dollars and several lives were lost as a result of the rains that fell between Friday Oct. 14, and Monday Oct. 17th, 1955. 

Newspaper reports from several local publications varied greatly on the amount of rain and the amount of time in which it fell. These numbers varied from the 12.58 inches reported by Georgetown Weatherman's George Howes to as much as 13.88 inches reported in Ridgefield. The time frame also varied from 36 hours to 48 hours depending on the source of information. Regardless of the exact amount and time frame, a great deal of rain fell upon an already saturated watershed on the weekend of October 14th, 1955.


The dam broke and was washed away at the Gilbert and Bennett factory in Georgetown.

All of Fairfield County was hit, but Branchville, Georgetown, Norwalk, Wilton, and sections of Ridgefield were hit worse, because of the Norwalk River. According to Charles Howes, Georgetown's weather observer, and his assistant, Conrad Borgensen. Starting at 7am on Friday morning, Mr. Howes recorded .62 inches by 5:30pm, and another 2 inches by midnight. By noon Saturday, another 2.23 inches had fallen. During the next 24 hours, 7.82 inches of rain was dumped upon this area.

By mid-afternoon Saturday, the Georgetown Fire Department and all available men were stationed at the bridges into town and at Branchville. The danger: fire and/or explosions from the washed-out gasoline tanks of the Branchville Motors garage, their contents riding the crest of the flood, causing alarm for several hours.

By 6pm the Norwalk River had flooded Route 7 from Branchville Station to just south of the Georgetown Motors garage. The Branchville train station, businesses, and homes in the area were swamped, the bridge near Branchville cemetery completely washed away.

Shortly after 6pm residents were evacuated from Branchville and Georgetown, some by boat, others by heavy-duty trucks. Residents who did not have relatives or friends they could not reach in the area were taken to the Georgetown Firehouse where they remained overnight.


Bridge approach washed out entering Wilton from New Canaan (on the Silvermine River). A dog checks it out.

The Press reported the Peatt family on Mamanasco Lake brought in boats and "went to Branchville to rescue some people whose houses were surrounded by still rising waters of the Norwalk River."


A house in Norwalk that has become an island in a turbulent river. The floodwaters had dropped from from their peak when this shot was taken.

Nazzareno Ancona reported seeing the gas station on Route 7 flooded with water half-way up the garage door, water coming in the back door and coming out the front door "bringing everything with it," he said.

The dam at Perry's Pond, on Route 53, above Georgetown (now Route 107) gave way a little before 9pm Saturday night sending a rush of water into the heart of Georgetown. In addition, there was a landslide about a half mile up Route 53 (now Route 107), but cars were able to get through.

At 9pm a northbound train out of Norwalk came to a halt in the "wilds" between Honey Hill and Seeley Roads in Cannondale. The stalled train and its 83 passengers would remain stranded for the next 14 hours until three U.S. Army helicopters were able to airlift them to safety in a rescue mission that spanned 3 hours. They were all transported to Danbury via buses.

By 10:30pm water was 4 feet deep in the center of Georgetown. Factory pond was so high that residents later reported water up to their porches on Portland Avenue.

The nearly 8 inches of rain that fell between Saturday and Sunday taxed the dams along the Norwalk River, in all likelihood already fatigued by the storms of August, to such an extent that at approximately 10:30pm the dam at Great Pond gave way, sending a surge of water through the Norwalk River Valley with such force that all dams and most of the bridges in its path crumbled in its wrath.

The concrete bridge on Route 7, which is parallel to the railroad trestle (between DeLuca's Hardware and Bob Sharp), crashed into the river just before 11pm Saturday night, and shortly after that the trestle, undermined by the flood waters, collapsed as well, leaving the tracks still spanning the river, but with no visible means of support.


Temporary bridge for Route 7 over Norwalk River.

At approximately 11pm, there was an audible "pop" as the embankment surrounding the the dam that had served the Gilbert & Bennett factory for over 100 years gave way sending water levels in Georgetown and through the factory to heights estimated from 8 to 12 feet deep.

Connery's Lumber Yard was washed away when the dam broke at the factory, and evidences of it could be found as far down the Norwalk River as Cannondale. It's safe to say Harold Connery was a good humored man. Following the Flood, Harold was asking all his customers downstream if they had received the shipments of lumber he sent them.

The dam at the "old mill" (Old Mill Road) went shorty after the dam at the factory gave way, sending more tons of water down the valley.

As dams to the north succumbed to the avalanche of water surging down the valley, Cannondale and Wilton were next in the river's path of destruction. Flood waters inflicted heavy damage on the New Haven Railroad tracks at several points in Wilton. The trestle in Cannondale, just below what was left of the Cannon Grange Hall, collapsed. At the northern approach to the Cannondale trestle, the tracks twisted crazily off their embankment; and were seriously undermined at several other points throughout Wilton.

Four Wilton bridges spanning the Norwalk River - at Honey Hill, Seeley, Old Ridgefield, and Kent Roads - were wiped out, as were bridges at Silver Spring and Cedar Roads. Washouts made other bridges at Old Mill Road, Wolfpit Road, Arrowhead Road, and Cannondale impassable; but these washouts and others in Silvermine were patched up with gravel on Monday and Tuesday by town road crews and contractors.

In houses along Cottage Row in the center of Wilton which frequently experienced cellar floods but nothing worse, the water rose above the main floors- almost to the ceilings in the Grover Bradley and George Barringer homes. The home of Mrs. Millie Beers in South Wilton was twisted off its foundation. Mrs. Beers was rescued by two firemen.

The Silvermine River in the southwest corner of Wilton also went on a rampage. Several families along the river fled their homes as the raging waters threatened to wash them away. Many evacuees spent the night with neighbors; several families slept in the Wilton Congregational Church and parsonage, the firehouse and town hall.




At Wall Street in Norwalk, more details of the destruction along the Norwalk River.


Over in Redding the damage was primarily roadway and bridge wash-outs along the Saugatuck and its tributaries. The small brook that courses down Route 53 (now 107), at the top of the Glen Hill, became a raging torrent undermining the road there. The road was passable until late Monday afternoon when, S. Harold Samuelson, first selectman of Redding, ordered the road closed.

Halfway down the Glen Hill, a landslide blocked the highway until Sunday afternoon, when a bulldozer pushed a one-way lane through it. At the foot of Glen Hill, the road was impassable over the bridge at the junction of Routes 53 and 107; the bridge withstood the raging Saugatuck, but the roadway was completely washed away on either side. On Monday afternoon, a car was still standing in a deep hole that had been the approach to the bridge, leaning crazily against a telephone pole. Further downstream was another car in the river. Its occupants had abandoned it on the road Saturday night.

Upstream was the site of the tragedy which saddened the whole town. At the Diamond Hill Road bridge, Edward Arthur Phoenix, 53, and his wife, Veronica, 47, of Fox Run Road lost their lives on Saturday night when the Phoenix's car was swept into the river below the bridge. Mr. and Mrs. Phoenix were coming home from dinner at the home of Mr. and Mrs. Matthew Blair of Great Pasture Road.

A three and one-half hour frantic and near successful attempt to rescue Mrs. Phoenix from a tree, after her husband had been swept to his death, made the tragedy even more horrifying. While volunteer firemen and neighbors tried vainly to reach her in the darkness she clung doggedly to the tree, aware of the efforts to save her. But at length her strength failed and she fell into the river and drowned. At one time the rescuers were within 20 feet of the tree but were turned aside by the tremendous force of the torrent.

An Army helicopter spotted the woman's body Monday morning, 1,500 feet from the Diamond Hill Bridge. Mr. Phoenix's body was recovered early Tuesday about 50 feet further downstream.

All approaches to West Redding were blocked; not a bridge was left intact by the tributaries of the Saugatuck River. Route 53 all the way to Bethel was blocked, the only route to Bethel or Danbury left open was the Black Rock Turnpike, which people reached by devious ways.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Weatherkids off to a Super Start

I visited with the third-graders at Nichols School in Stratford this week. It was my second Weatherkids program of the year. The kids, teachers, and administrators are always excited when I visit their schools. Nichols School was one of the first schools I visited when Weatherkids began back in the mid 1990s.

"Thank you again for taking the time to visit our classroom and film the live broadcast and the weather kids," wrote third-grade teacher Janet McSally. "The children have sent you thank you notes that you should be receiving shortly. We loved the live broadcast. I showed it to them when they returned from Art. I am sending you the banner in the mail tomorrow, so you should receive that shortly.

"What a wonderful experience for all of the children.  Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to visit with the children. This was an experience they will cherish forever. We plan on performing The Crooked Man (song) at our whole school assembly in January."

"I am not surprised to read such glowing remarks about you," wrote News 12 Connecticut's promotions manager Carlos Austin. "Your commitment to both your work and community is exemplary and it truly shows. Your message is one that resonates with kids and they will remember it forever.  Thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to educate, entertain and bring smiles to the faces of so many of our youth.  It's appreciated, sir!"

This year, I've taken the program to a higher level by giving the LIVE weather forecast from the classroom at 10:01 and 10:11 a.m. each week. It's a thrill for everybody. Weatherkids is a sponsored franchise of News 12 Connecticut.


Nichols School's Third-Grade Weatherkids by PaulWXman

Paul

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Still No Sign of October's Guests, the Asian Beetle Bug

The month of October got off to a relatively mild start. In fact, the first five days this month were warmer-than-normal, and yesterday's average temperature of 60 degrees was three degrees above normal. The average monthly temperature through the first 10 days this month is 60.6 degrees, which is exactly two degrees above normal.

That got me wondering about a potential problem with unwelcome guests. About a week ago I started checking the windows and doors outside my home for signs of the Asian lady beetle. You may recall that three years ago, there was an infestation of these "stink bugs." Hundreds and even thousands of these harmless creatures were invading homes and businesses in October, 2009. However, the past two years I didn't see any.

Three years ago I wrote about the invasion of the lady beetle. The onset of warmer air in mid-October usually signals the return of the ladybugs, lured out of forests by the warm daytime sun and driven indoors with the evening chill. It happens every year just about this time, and it’s not that unusual, according to Eric Day, manager of the Insect Identification Lab at Virginia Tech. “You get these warm days (in) October, and they get active,” he said. “If you have a house that’s infested, you can literally find thousands and thousands inside.”

I decided to examine the windows more closely after I saw many of them in my hone in October of 2009. It didn’t take long to figure out how the ladybugs were getting between the screen and window. The insulation at the top of the screens was all but destroyed, and the little creatures were flying inside. I needed to take action by securing the window and door frames with strong tape. I did the same thing each of the past two years, just in case.

Day said the type of ladybug that causes the ruckus is known as the Asian lady beetle, an invasive species present in the Eastern United States for about 15 years. How the bugs got here is unclear, but the best guess, he opined, is that they hitched a ride on cargo ships or escaped from the United States Department of Agriculture experimental fields, a charge the agency denies.

As if the mere presence of tens of thousands of bugs in your living room isn’t enough, they emit a gut-churning musky odor that lingers after they die, and they die quickly in dry, indoor air. They also leave yellowish stains on everything, caused by a defense mechanism called “reflex bleeding.” The ladybugs aren’t particularly harmful, and in most cases, the bugs will just retreat or die without any treatment.

If the lady bugs haven't appeared by now, I think we're going to be okay. Much cooler air is expected by the start of this weekend. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Northern Fairfield and New Haven counties for late Friday night and early Ssaturday morning. However, milder temperatures will arrive Sunday into Monday after the passage of a warm front. Daytime temperatures should return to the mid 60s by the middle of next week.

Paul

Monday, October 8, 2012

Winter's Forecast Based on Local Climatology

It certainly was a chilly start to the day. Temperatures fell into the 30s at daybreak in Redding, Easton, Orange, and Woodbridge under clear skies and light winds. Bridgeport's morning low temperature dropped into the lower 40s, much cooler than the 49-degree normal low for this date. Yes, Winter can't be that far off. In fact, the first day of Winter is less than eight weeks away.

So, what kind of Winter can we expect? All signs are pointing to a cold and snowy Winter in the Northeast, based on the North Atlantic Oscillation trend, the jet stream, and developing weather patterns. However, Ralph Fato of Norwalk took it a step further. He decided to research our local climatology and examine if any pattern developed after mild and relatively dry Winters. I'm sure you recall how easy we had it last Winter. The results are quite interesting.

Ralph scoured the record books to find six years which had similar amounts of snowfall as last Winter and then compare that to the following Winter. In every case, the amount of snow the following year was much greater. Just over a foot (13.60") of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford last Winter, well below the 27-inch normal for the season. Take a look at the chart Ralph created and see what happened each of the following six years with similar snow totals to last year's (click the chart to enlarge):


Upon closer inspection, the Winter of 1950-51 had just about the same amount of snow as last year (13.70"), but the following year brought nearly two feet (23.50"). The Winter of 1999-2000 delivered just 13.30" to the region. However, the following year (2000-2001) brought more than four feet (52.2") to southwestern Connecticut. Further, just over a foot (13") of snow fell in 1988-89, but Mother Nature dumped 31.3" the very next year.

The pattern is quite clear. Based on the climate data for southwestern Connecticut, a snowy Winter follows a relatively mild and snow-free one. We don't have any snow to worry about in the near future, but some showers are headed this way later this evening through early tomorrow. Another chance of scattered showers is expected later Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny, dry, and slightly cooler-than-normal. Winter can wait as far as I'm concerned.

Paul 

Friday, October 5, 2012

Rainy Ten-Day Stretch Pushes Yearly Total Above Normal

Early last week I was lamenting the yearly rainfall deficit across southwestern Connecticut. We were running about four-and-a-half inches below normal until the weather pattern dramatically changed. In fact, over a half-foot (6.14") of rain has fallen at Sikorsky Memorial Airport over the last 10 days, highlighted by nearly five inches (4.80") a exactly one week ago. A viewer sent this video of the flooded Stamford Transit Way following last week's heavy rain.



Seven of the last 10 days have featured measured rain, including over a half-inch (0.64") this past Tuesday and just under a half-inch (0.45") yesterday. In fact, three of the first four days this month brought measured rain to southwestern Connecticut. As a result, the annual rainfall total is finally above normal through yesterday. The yearly total (33.31") is almost a half-inch above normal (32.84").

Since September 1, we've received more than eight inches (8.10") of rain, which is more than double the 3.94" normal through yesterday. Fourteen of the 34 days over that stretch saw measured rain, including four of the first eight days of September. Six of the last eight days of last month had measured rain, pushing the monthly total to seven inches, just about double the norm (3.52") for September.

Mother Nature is providing a break from the cloudy and damp weather we've experienced over the last 10 days. However, more rain is in the forecast. An approaching front will bring a few scattered showers later tomorrow afternoon before a wave of low pressure will skirt the New England coast with rain and much cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs will reach the mid-to-upper 70s today but only reach the mid 50s by Sunday.

It's been said that Mother Nature always finds a way to balance everything out, including the rain. That's never been truer than this year. Have a good weekend.

Paul

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Today Marks 25th Anniversary of Earliest Snow on Record

We're off to another mild and humid morning with patchy dense fog. Temperatures were well into the 60s before daybreak and will reach the lower 70s this afternoon before a cold front arrives later today. However, it was quite a different story 25 years ago today. The earliest snow on record fell across the Northeast, delivering up to a foot of snow in parts of Vermont and even a half-inch along the Connecticut shoreline at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford.

The storm knocked out power to more than 300,000 homes. Remember, many trees still had their leaves at this time of the year, which was a major contributing factor to the number of fallen trees and limbs, many of which took down power lines. The snow-to-liquid ratio was 3.5 to 1. The hardest hit areas were Dutchess, Ulster, and Columbia counties in New York, where power was out for as much as two weeks. Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Dutchess, Greene, and Montgomery counties were declared disaster areas. Take a look at the satellite image from October 4, 1987, at 11 a.m.


The storm was caused by a collision of cold and wet air masses. Coastal areas of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey were lashed by a cold rain, which eventually turned to snow, but were spared heavy snowfall as temperatures held in the 40s. The National Weather Service reported snow accumulations of up to 20 inches in upstate New York, 18 inches in Western Massachusetts, 12 inches in parts of Vermont, and nine inches in upstate Connecticut. Even the Northwest corner of New Jersey reported three inches of snow.



According to a New York Times article, "For thousands of people, it was a day to go nowhere and to do nothing, a day without power, heat, or television, or visitors, with time to look out the window at the tapestries of falling snow and silent woodlands." Connecticut had 77,000 homes without power as utility crews labored throughout the day. Snow removal efforts were handicapped because trucks had not yet been fitted with plows, and eventual melting was expected to do the job.

At least two deaths were attributed to the storm. The victims were killed by falling trees. Scores of minor traffic accidents were reported across the region, and Metro North trains were stranded for as much as two hours on some routes. The snow began late Saturday night, October 3, in some areas, and moved East where it continued throughout Sunday morning, October 4. The precipitation eventually tapered off by early-to-mid afternoon.

Paul