Turning the Calendar Page to December

The start of the Winter season is officially three weeks away, and temperatures have been running cooler-than-normal recently. Yesterday's high temperature was 44 degrees, and the daily average of 37 was four degrees colder than the normal average of 41. However, a warm-up is ahead, and daytime high temperatures will flirt with 60 degrees by Monday and Tuesday of next week. A cold front will bring slightly cooler air by Wednesday.

The Winter Solstice occurs at 6:12 a.m., Eastern Standard Time, Friday, December 21, technically making it the “shortest” day of the year in terms of sunlight. Sunrise happens at 7:15, while the Sun sets at 4:26 on that day. Gradually, the length of daylight begins to increase by the last week of the month. As one would expect, the average temperatures in December start taking a nosedive based on 40 years of averages, or what we call climatology.

The average high temperature drops from 46 degrees on the first of the month to just 37 degrees on New Year’s Eve. The average daily temperature falls from 39 degrees to 30 degrees over the next 31 days. The record high temperature for the month is 76 degrees, established on December 7, 1998. The coldest days ever for December happened on Christmas Day, December 25, 1980, and the next day, December 26, 1980, when an all-time low of -4 was recorded at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. The mercury also fell to -1 on December 30, 1962.

I'm sure you haven't forgotten the post-Christmas blizzard two years ago, which "snowballed" into one of the most memorable Winters in recent memory. Heavy snow fell from Sunday, December 26, through Monday, December 27, kick-starting a nearly two-month stormy pattern which led to 60 inches of snow. Although that's double the norm, it fell short of the all-time snowiest Winter on record in southwestern Connecticut, when 78 inches fell during the 1995-96 season.

Officially, 12 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford from Sunday morning through early Monday morning, Dec. 26 & 27, 2010. The eight inches of snow which fell Sunday marked the third snowiest December day on record in southwestern Connecticut. Only December 19, 1948 (16 inches), and December 30, 2000 (10 inches) brought more snow in one day. Here are some impressive snow totals from that storm across southwestern Connecticut:

• Wilton: 18"
• New Canaan: 17.5"
• Greenwich: 17"
• Stratford: 16"
• Norwalk: 16"
• Westport: 14.8"
• Darien: 14.5"
• Milford: 14"
• Bridgeport: 12"

One of the more memorable snowstorms in December occurred on Christmas Eve, 1966, when seven inches fell. You may remember that 3.5 inches of snow fell on New Year’s Eve, December 31, 2008.

As far as precipitation is concerned, the average for the month is 3.47 inches. The wettest December on record happened in 1972 when 7.87 inches fell at the airport. Heavy rain plagued southwestern Connecticut  December 11 and 12, 2008, when 3.54 inches of rain fell over those two days, which is more than the average for the entire month. The driest December was in 1955 when only 0.33 inches filled the gauge. The average monthly snowfall is about 3.6 inches.

There is a "bright" side to the month. Although the time of sunrise gets later through the month, the Sun sets later and later, too. Today, for example, the Sun sets at 4:25, which is only one minute after the earliest Sunset in mid December. However, by New Year’s Eve, the Sun will fall below the horizon at 4:33. So, we’ll gain nearly 10 minutes of daylight in the evening through the end of the month.

The Full Cold Moon, otherwise known as the Full Long Nights Moon, happens Friday, December 28, at 5:21 a.m. EST. It is sometimes called the “Moon before Yule.” The term Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the midwinter night is indeed long, and the Moon is above the horizon a long time. The midwinter Full Moon takes a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite to the low Sun.

Happy December!

Paul

Full Beaver Moon to Shine Brightly Tonight

Now that our latest storm system has exited the region, high pressure will return today paving the way for a mostly clear and quite cold night. The Full Beaver Moon (9:46 a.m.) will shine brightly this evening after it rises at 4:40 p.m. However, temperatures will fall in a hurry as winds relax and dry air arrives. Tonight's lows will drop into the 20s across much of the region.

November's Full Moon is so named because this was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm Winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for Winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

During the late 1800s, beavers were almost hunted to extinction by the white trappers and traders, because the beaver pelt became a very fashionable wardrobe accessory, especially for men's top hats in Europe and in New England. Since that time they have greatly increased in number and in the amount of damage that they cause during the building of their dams and dens.

Are you aware that a single beaver may chew down hundreds of trees every year as he continuously builds and repairs his lodges and dams? The beavers do provide habitat for other animals such as ducks and otters, but they can also cause unexpected large-scale floods.



Over ten years ago in the Washington, D.C. tidal basin, where many of the famous ornamental cherry trees bloom drawing tourists from all over the world, a family of beavers moved into the "luxurious digs." The beavers were noticed as soon as they began downing cherry trees to build their lodges. The National Park Service Rangers quickly set live humane traps and moved the family of pesky beavers to another area where the trees were not as famous or rare.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

As far as our weather goes, today will feature partly sunny skies, but it will be breezy and chilly with a high temperature in the low-to-mid 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the 20s to close to 30 degrees along the shoreline. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high once again in the lower 40s. Enjoy the Full Beaver Moon.

Paul

Thanksgiving Day to Bring Feast from Mother Nature

We're on a Thanksgiving weather winning streak! Another pleasant Thanksgiving Day is shaping up to be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with afternoon high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s. This will be the fourth dry Thanksgiving Day in the last five years. The only blemish during the streak happened two years ago when light rain fell on Thanksgiving Day, bringing four-hundredths of an inch of precipitation to the region.

Obviously, with the date of Thanksgiving fluctuating from year to year, the weather can be very different from one year to the next. We've experienced a record-breaking rainstorm, record-setting snowstorm, unseasonably mild temperatures, and strong, gusty winds over the last 25 years on Thanksgiving Day. However, the two most memorable storms happened in 2006 and 1989.

The most memorable Thanksgiving Day over the last 25 years occurred on November 23, 1989. That's when over a half-foot of snow fell across southwestern Connecticut, marking the snowiest Thanksgiving on record in these parts. In fact, the snow began falling the night before, creating a nightmare at airports, bus depots, and roadways on the heaviest travel day of the year.

Officially, 6.2 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport. Coupled with the nearly half-inch that fell the night before, just about seven inches of snow blanketed the region. It was the snowiest November day on record until this month's Nor'easter brought 8.3 inches of snow to the region. Remember, the average snowfall for the entire month based on 40 years of climatology is less than an inch (0.7").

Seventeen years later to the exact day, nearly two inches of rain (1.84") fell during Thanksgiving Day, November 23, 2006, with most of it coming during the mid-to-late morning hours. That's over half the normal average rain for the entire month. I was the emcee at Fairfield Warde High School's halftime ceremony during the Mustangs' football game against arch-rival Fairfield Ludlowe. The gala event included the field dedication ceremony and 50th anniversary celebration of the opening of the school.

If you're counting, 11 of the last 24 Thanksgivings have produced measured rain locally, including a streak of four in a row from 2004 through 2007. The longest dry stretch was four years, from 2000 through 2003. Nearly an inch of rain fell on Thanksgiving Day 1998, and just about a half-inch was recorded the following year in 1999. Just a trace of rain fell three years ago, November 26, 2009.



In fact, over the last 50 years, the numbers are strikingly similar. Measured rain has been recorded 24 times on Thanksgiving Day, or just about 50 percent of the time. As for the warmest Thanksgiving Day in recent memory, the mercury climbed to 69 degrees at Central Park in New York City on November 29, 1990, establishing a record high for the date. The coldest Thanksgiving morning in the last 20 years happened on November 28, 1996, when the temperature fell to 23 degrees.

Paul

Glancing at the Snowy Record Book

The recent Nor'easter, which happened just nine days after Hurricane Sandy, delivered record snow to much of the Northeast. Officially, 8.3 of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on November 7 and 8, making it the snowiest November on record. The previous record happened 23 years ago, when a Thanksgiving storm brought over a half-foot of snow (6.6") on November 22 and 23, 1989, to the region. Consider that the normal average snowfall for the entire month is 0.6 inches.

Local climatologist Ralph Fato of Norwalk examined the record books and found that the Nor'easter brought the most November snow to the region in more than 61 years. However, what makes this year's snow even more impressive is that it happened well before Thanksgiving. In addition to Sikorsky's record snow, the official snow totals from the storm included 6.2" at Newark Airport and 4.3" at Kennedy Airport in New York.

According to Ralph, prior to this year's Nor'easter, the most snow for the month of November over the last 61 years at Newark Airport was 5.7" and 3.7" at Kennedy Airport on November 22 and 23, 1989. A quick glance at the record book for Sikorky Airport shows that there are only two other dates during the entire month on which at least three inches of snow fell. They include November 6, 1953 (3.4") and November 27, 2002 (3.0").

Take a look at the following graph which Ralph prepared. It shows National Weather Service data since 1950 for six coastal cities. The graph illustrates how the snowfall totals add up per decade. The average for an entire decade is highlighted by the first bar in black. Please note that the decade starts on the "0" year, ie: 1950-1959. Click the graph to enlarge it.

What is most striking is that coastal Connecticut needs just 58 inches of snow this decade to eclipse the total for the entire decade of the 1980s. Yes, there are still seven years remaining in this decade. Remember, the normal average snowfall is 27" at Sikorsky Airport.

In addition, this decade, Philadelphia has accumulated more snow than Chicago and Denver and has the same amount as Minneapolis. The "City of Brotherly Love" needs just 26 more inches of snow to beat the entire decade of the 1950s.

Baltimore needs just 55” of snow to have more than the entire decade of the 1950s. In fact, Baltimore needs the same amount of snow they have this decade (92”) to beat every single decade since the 1950s, with the exception of the 1960s.

Here are some additional interesting findings from Ralph's research:

* Since the 1980s, New York City and Bridgeport have been receiving more snow per decade;

* The last decade with below-normal snowfall in Boston was the 1980s;

* Washington, D.C. has not had an above-normal snowfall decade since the 1980s;

* Baltimore has not had an above-normal snowfall decade since the 1960s.

Special thanks to Ralph Fato for this compelling research. I found it quite interesting. I appreciate it, Ralph.

Paul

Leonid Meteors to be Active Early Tuesday Morning

The following was written by News 12 Westchester meteorologist and astronomer Joe Rao:

This is the time for the Leonids meteors, that middle-of-November, middle-of-the night celestial light show. These ultra-swift light streaks appear to emanate from out of the constellation of Leo (hence the name, “Leonid”), which begins to rise in the northeast around 11 p.m., then gradually ascends the sky, remaining in view for the balance of the night.

The meteors usually reach their peak each year on Nov. 17 or 18 as Earth travels through streams of dust left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle. Tempel-Tuttle orbits the Sun every 33-years, and during its closest approach the heat of the Sun causes some of the comet’s ice to bubble off, taking some dusty debris with it; stray bits of comet matter that go whipping through the solar system.

The average Leonid that is visible to the naked eye, is scarcely larger than a grain of sand. We know them best when they reach the Earth’s upper atmosphere and flare into streaks of light from friction with the rarefied air. They enter with an immense velocity—45 miles per second, or 162,000 miles per hour—and its kinetic energy is used up in such processes as the instantaneous production of light, heat and ionization.

Thus, such a small particle can be seen as a “shooting star” from more than 100 miles away. Obviously, however, it's really the light energy that it develops and not the particle itself that we see.

This year the best time to look for the Leonids will not be on the traditional nights of Nov. 17 or 18, but rather in the early morning hours of Tuesday, Nov. 20. Two reputable experts in the field of meteor science, Jeremie Vaubaillion of France and Mikhail Maslov of Russia, have independently calculated that the Earth is on target to pass directly through a small clump of dust that was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle when it swept around the Sun back in the year 1400. That interaction is to occur between 12:30 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. EST.
 

But don’t expect a tremendous number of meteors. Maslov, in fact, doesn’t think there will be no more than 15 to 20 Leonids per hour as seen from a dark sky location; even less if you trying to watch from a brightly-lit city.

So why bother looking at all? In this case, it isn’t quantity, but quality.

When a comet releases particles into space most are indeed the size of dust and sand grains, but there are also some larger pieces too, ranging from pebble size to perhaps a child’s marble. Those kind of pieces can create outstandingly bright meteors—called “fireballs”—perhaps even meteors that explode in their flight across the sky—called “bolides.”

After a number of revolutions around the Sun, most of the dust-sized particles become dispersed so only the larger pieces remain. In the case of the clump of particles shed by Tempel-Tuttle in 1400, it has circled the Sun 18 times. So if there’s anything left out there in space, there should at least be some of those larger pebble-sized pieces.

If so, then during that 3- or 4-hour interval beginning soon after midnight on Tuesday morning, there’s a “chance” that we might be treated to a few of those types of meteors. The Leonids are well-known for leaving particularly long-enduring incandescent trains, sometimes lingering for many seconds or even minutes. With binoculars you can see these trains drifting against the backdrop of stars, indicative of swift winds in the very high atmosphere.

If you plan to watch, here are a couple of tips: Make sure to stay warm and get comfortable. Should you have a lawn chair that reclines, use it during your search for Leonid meteors since it will help keep your neck from getting stiff as well as make it easier to look at the night sky.

Just seeing one of those dazzlers will make your whole night. Hopefully, nature will be in a show-off mood in the predawn hours of Tuesday.

Shorter Days Lead to Seasonal Affective Disorder

After 18-and-a-half years of working the early-morning shift, I suppose I’ve gotten used to getting up and driving to work in the dark. However, I have an especially difficult time with the Sun setting so early in the afternoon. It seems that there is very little time to do anything outside before it gets dark. In fact, one of the late buses from our neighborhood school arrived just before 5 o’clock last night when it was completely dark out. I don’t like it.

Those who work the 9-to-5 shift are coming home in the dark now. Sunset this afternoon is at 4:33. And, it only gets earlier over the month. By the end of the month, Sunset is at 4:24. The earliest time the Sun sets at our latitude is 4:23 in early December. That is a striking contrast to late June, when the latest Sunset in southwestern Connecticut happens at 8:30.

Psychologically, the darker afternoons and evenings affect many people. You’ve no doubt heard about Seasonal Affective Disorder. According to the National Mental Health Association, some people suffer from symptoms of depression during the Winter months, with those symptoms subsiding during the Spring and Summer. This may be a sign of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). SAD is a mood disorder associated with depression episodes and related to seasonal variations of light.

How does SAD affect people? People with the disorder frequently experience the following:

• Sleep problems – oversleeping but not refreshed, cannot get out of bed, needing a nap in the afternoon
• Overeating – carbohydrate craving leading to weight gain
• Depression, despair, misery, guilt, anxiety – normal tasks become frustratingly difficult
• Family / social problems – avoiding company, irritability, loss of libido, loss of feeling
• Lethargy – too tired to cope, everything an effort
• Physical symptoms – often joint pain or stomach problems, lowered resistance to infection
• Behavioral problems – especially in young people

Melatonin, a sleep-related hormone secreted by the pineal gland in the brain, has been linked to SAD. This hormone, which may cause symptoms of depression, is produced at increased levels in the dark. Therefore, when the days are shorter and darker the production of this hormone increases.

Phototherapy or bright light therapy has been shown to suppress the brain’s secretion of melatonin. Although, there have been no research findings to definitely link this therapy with an antidepressant effect, many people respond to this treatment.

I admit, the early darkness always shocks me in early November. Remember, it was just over two months ago we were still enjoying Summer and relatively brighter evenings. The Sun set at 7:25 on the first day of September. Seemingly, in the blink of an eye, we’re just about five weeks from the first day of Winter. Yeah, it’s a bummer, to be sure.

Personally, the only positive about the longer nights is the relative ease of falling asleep. I actually feel as though I should be going to bed at 8 p.m., even though it’s an early time by most people’s standards. During the Summer, it’s virtually impossible to fall asleep when the Sun is still shining, my son is playing, and I hear people laughing and talking outside. I actually embrace the darker evenings for that reason alone. After all, the 2 o’clock alarm is not a “friend,” no matter the time of the year.

So, if you don’t enjoy the shorter days and longer nights, we have about a month before the length of daylight begins to increase once again. The first day of Winter is technically “the shortest day of the year.” Before you know it, the evenings will start getting a little brighter once more.

It can’t get here fast enough!

Paul

Possible Coastal Storm Next Week

It's not time to panic just yet, but there is the potential for a prolonged coastal storm early next week. The two main weather models --- the European and the Global Forecast System --- have fashioned two completely different scenarios for next week. The Euro, which picked up on Hurricane Sandy more than a week before its arrival, has been the more accurate of the two. It shows the Northeast getting blasted for a prolonged period of time through the middle of next week. Click on the image to enlarge it.

Take a look at each of the different panels. The storm is just taking shape late Sunday, but by Monday evening, the center of low pressure begins to move North along the Atlantic coast. A steep pressure gradient develops between the low to the South and the high pressure system to the North and East, delivering a gusty East wind. That's certainly not good news for Long Island Sound and the coastal communities.

The GFS model, which didn't pick up on Sandy until much later, takes the center of the storm out to sea to the East. By Monday evening (Tuesday 00Z), the center of the storm has moved well to the East, and the gusty winds are just offshore. By Tuesday evening, the storm slowly pulls away to the East, and a drier North wind develops. Take a look at each of the panels.

Naturally, next week is the busiest travel week of the year. We'll certainly have a better gauge on the track of the storm by the end of this week. Fortunately, the local weather picture is fairly quiet the rest of the week and through the upcoming weekend. Today will be mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly with a high temperature in the mid-to-upper 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with a low of 24 to 33 degrees. Make sure you bundle up before you head outside today.

Paul

A Tale of Two Months

The current streak of 20 consecutive warmer-than-normal months may be coming to an end. October's average temperature of  58.1 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford was 3.2 degrees above normal. In fact, the last 14 days of last month were warmer-than-normal, including four days with average temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. In addition, the first six days of October were warmer-than-normal.

This month, however, has been a different story. Yesterday's high temperature of 62 degrees notwithstanding, November's average temperature of 44 degrees through the first 11 days is 4.4 degrees below normal. Although we're expecting one more day with above average temperatures, a cold front will deliver much cooler air later tomorrow through the end of the week.

Take a look at the following bar graph created by Ralph Fato of Norwalk. He wrote, "Here is a look at the departure from normal for maximum temperatures for (two) Connecticut locations. Don’t let the line fool you. The line represents the normal temperature as you can see from the axis on the right. The bars show how much we have been above or below normal since October 1. November is looking cold so far. BDL was 20 degrees below normal on the 7^th!" Click the image to enlarge it.

Thus far this month, six days have been colder-than-normal. Three days (November 6 through 8) were at least ten degrees colder-than-normal. Only two days (November 10 & 11) have been warmer-than-normal. Just two days this month featured morning low temperatures at or below 32 degrees. The current brief stretch of mild weather will come to a close tonight as a cold front brings some rain and much cooler air in its wake. Daytime highs won't escape the 40s by Thursday.

Paul

Wettest November on Record Happened 40 Years Ago

Even though we've experienced two historic storms over the last two weeks, we've only had two days with any measured rain thus far this month. Just under three quarters of an inch of rain fell November 7 (0.45") and November 8 (0.25") combined, leaving us below normal in the rain gauge this month. Rain is expected Tuesday morning as a cold front arrives, but the remainder of the week will be mostly sunny and cooler.

However, 40 years ago today, the weather picture was quite different across southwestern Connecticut. Residents were recovering after a drenching rain and wind storm. Winds gusted to 67 miles-an-hour and over three inches of rain fell across the region, causing broken windows, downed trees, power outages, and significant property damage. It was the first of two significant rainstorms within a week during the wettest November on record.

Nearly a foot of rain (10.22") fell during November of 1972, establishing an all-time record for the month. Consider that the normal average rain for the entire month is 3.65 inches. This November, by contrast, nine of the first 10 days were completely dry. The November 8, 1972 storm delivered 3.04 inches of rain. Just six days later, November 14, nearly three more inches (2.84") soaked the area.

According to the Thursday, November 9, 1972 edition of The Bridgeport Post, "The full force of the coastal storm struck between 2 and 4 o'clock yesterday, slowing traffic on the Connecticut Turnpike and the Merritt Parkway, as the wind-driven rain cut visibility sharply. Public Works Department crews in Bridgeport and across the county were kept busy throughout the afternoon and evening cleaning up fallen tree limbs and branches."



The report stated that the worst electrical interruptions occurred in Norwalk and New Canaan, where 2,600 customers of the Connecticut Light and Power Company were without electricity for varying amounts of time yesterday afternoon and last night. The United Illuminating Company reported a large number of small power failures, resulting from wind gusts, but no major power interruption.

According to the newspaper account, in Milford, a wind gust sent a beach umbrella high in the air and smashed it down on a police patrol car at 2:30 p.m. at Yale Avenue and Easy Street. The policeman said he was unable to avoid the umbrella. It damaged the patrol car's searchlight and left fender, and a moment later struck a parked car anb flew off. Smashed display windows were plentiful as wind gusts reached gale level. One gust of wind peeled off a 30-foot section of a new roof on the Pleasure Beach ballroom.



This November is quite different from the soaker we experienced back in 1972. After Tuesday's morning rain, the next threat of any rain won't happen until early next week when a stalled coastal storm may bring rain and wind to the Northeast.

Paul

Nor'easter Snow Video

I took this video of the snowstorm outside my home, Wednesday afternoon, November 7, 2012.


November 7, 2012, Nor'easter by PaulWXman

Paul

Classic Nor'easter Brings Record-Breaking Snow to Region

Just nine days after Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of southwestern Connecticut, especially shoreline communities, a classic Nor'easter brought gusty winds, cold temperatures, and record-breaking snow to southwestern Connecticut. The snow began falling late yesterday morning as the storm exploded, causing bands of moderate-to-heavy snow to fall the rest of the day and through the night.

Officially, Sikorsky Memorial Airport recorded 5.4 inches of snow yesterday, which was a record for the date and the second snowiest November day on record. More than a half-foot of snow (6.2 inches) fell on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 23, 1989. Three inches of snow fell as recently as November 27, 2002, but nothing quite like what we experienced over the last 24 hours. The photos are courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk.

Here are some snowfall totals from across southwestern Connecticut:

• Monroe: 11.5"
• Danbury: 9.9"
• Bridgeport: 8.0"
• Ridgefield: 8.0"
• Darien: 7.9"
• Greenwich: 6.0"
• Trumbull: 6.0"
• New Canaan: 6.0"
• Norwalk: 5.8"
• Stamford: 5.3"

A strong North wind continued to pull colder air into much of New England throughout the day. Yesterday's high temperature of 39 degrees happened at 10:21 a.m. By mid-afternoon, the mercury had dropped into the low-to-mid 30s, causing the precipitation to fall as heavy wet snow. The low temperature fell to 31 degrees at 8:24 p.m. The normal high and low temperatures for November 7 are 56 and 40 degrees, respectively. Wednesday's average temperature of 35 degrees was 13 degrees colder than the normal average of 48.

Initially, it appeared the storm would be more of a wind-maker rather than a snow-maker, as computer models pushed the center of the storm farther to the East. However, the winds never reached the 50-mph forecast gusts which were anticipated. The highest wind gust at Sikorsky Airport was 36 miles per hour out of the North, and the highest wind speed was 29 miles an hour. The average wind speed yesterday was 19.2 miles an hour.

Fortunately, our weather picture will improve over the next couple of days, and the Veteran's Day holiday weekend is shaping up to be mostly sunny and warmer. The rest of today will be cloudy, breezy, and chilly with a high of 44 degrees. Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold with lows of 27 to 32. Tomorrow will be sunny and milder with a high near 50. Plenty of sunshine is expected Sunday & Monday with daytime highs into the lower 60s each afternoon.

Paul

Weather Plays a Role in Election Outcomes

Election Day is tomorrow. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high temperature in the middle 40s. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. By tomorrow night we'll know who the next President, United States Senator, and local legislators will be. There are many other races on the ballot, too. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut Tuesday evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul

Hurricane Sandy Satellite Loop

This is the GOES satellite loop for Hurricane Sandy from the Caribbean to Canada from October 23 to November 3.

Paul

November by the Numbers

Hurricane Sandy is long gone, but its effects will be felt for quite some time. Many people are still without power today, including those in homes and businesses throughout southwestern Connecticut. Now, it's time to look ahead to November and how the month shapes up climatologically. Don't forget to "fall back" this weekend. Standard Time begins this coming Sunday morning, November 4, at 2 o'clock.

Snow is certainly not out of the question during this month. Perhaps the most memorable Thanksgiving Day in recent memory occured in 1989 when over a half-foot of snow fell that day. The snow began falling shortly after midnight, and by the time it ended late Thanksgiving afternoon, it was the biggest single-day snow event in November.

Snow also fell twice in 1995, including 2.4 inches on November 29 of that year. That was the snowiest Winter on record across southwestern Connecticut. Another "snowstorm" of note happened on November 6 and 7 of 1953 when a combined 5.4 inches fell. However, the average snow for the month is only 0.6 inches.

November can also be a wet month, too. The most precipitation in November occured in 1972 when 10.22 inches were recorded. There have also been some impressive single-day totals, including 3.12" (Nov. 2, 1954), 3.04" (1972), and 2.91" (Nov. 10, 1948). The average precipitation for the month is 3.81 inches, ranking it fourth behind March, May, and April as the wettest months of the year. The driest November happened 36 years ago when only 0.36" fell in 1976.

We begin to experience a dramatic decline in average temperatures, too. At the start of the month, the normal high and low are 59 and 43 degrees, respectively. However, by month's end, the normals are 47 and 33. That's an 11-degree drop in the mean temperature. The average high temperature is 53 degrees, while the average low for the month is 38.2 degrees.

The warmest November on record occured in 1975 when the average temperature was a relatively balmy 50.5 degrees. The coldest November happened 15 years ago, in 1996, when the mercury averaged 40.7 degrees. Although the temperature has never officially reached 80 degrees at the airport during the month, we've come close a few times. The warmest single day reading was 78 degrees which happened twice, on Nov. 4, 1975, and Nov. 15, 1993. Other notable warm days include 77 degrees (Nov. 2, 1950), and 72 degrees (Nov. 5, 1961).

The length of daylight continues to decrease with each passing day. We're a little more than seven weeks from the Winter Solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. By the middle of the month, Sunrise and Sunset are at 6:41 a.m. and 4:33 p.m., respectively. By the last day of the month, the Sun rises at 6:58 in the morning and sets at 4:24 in the afternoon. That's only one minute later than the earliest Sunset, at 4:23, in early-to-mid December.

The Full Beaver Moon happens November 28 at 9:46 a.m. EST. Why the Beaver Moon? This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

Welcome to November.

Paul