However, the warmer-than-normal average temperature this month may carry more significance as far the as the long-term forecast is concerned. Ralph Fato took a closer look at the October mean temperature departures for Bridgeport and Syracuse, New York, since 1990 and compared the results to the subsequent four months to see if there was any correlation.
Interestingly, seven out of nine times (78%) when October's average temperature was above normal by at least
+0.50 degrees, the following Winter was warmer-than-normal. The only two exceptions were the Winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11. Take a look at the following chart which Ralph created. Click the chart to see a larger version.
The Winters of 1990-91, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures each month from October through February. The two colder-than-normal Winters which followed mild Octobers are prominent on the graph. You'll see the red outline below the normal (0 degrees) average temperature.
It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues this year. All signs are pointing to a colder and snowier Winter-than-normal, but the climatological statistics don't lie: a warmer-than-normal October leads to a milder Winter nearly 80 percent of the time over the last 22 years! Thanks, Ralph.
Paul
