So, what kind of Winter can we expect? All signs are pointing to a cold and snowy Winter in the Northeast, based on the North Atlantic Oscillation trend, the jet stream, and developing weather patterns. However, Ralph Fato of Norwalk took it a step further. He decided to research our local climatology and examine if any pattern developed after mild and relatively dry Winters. I'm sure you recall how easy we had it last Winter. The results are quite interesting.
Ralph scoured the record books to find six years which had similar amounts of snowfall as last Winter and then compare that to the following Winter. In every case, the amount of snow the following year was much greater. Just over a foot (13.60") of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford last Winter, well below the 27-inch normal for the season. Take a look at the chart Ralph created and see what happened each of the following six years with similar snow totals to last year's (click the chart to enlarge):
Upon closer inspection, the Winter of 1950-51 had just about the same amount of snow as last year (13.70"), but the following year brought nearly two feet (23.50"). The Winter of 1999-2000 delivered just 13.30" to the region. However, the following year (2000-2001) brought more than four feet (52.2") to southwestern Connecticut. Further, just over a foot (13") of snow fell in 1988-89, but Mother Nature dumped 31.3" the very next year.
The pattern is quite clear. Based on the climate data for southwestern Connecticut, a snowy Winter follows a relatively mild and snow-free one. We don't have any snow to worry about in the near future, but some showers are headed this way later this evening through early tomorrow. Another chance of scattered showers is expected later Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny, dry, and slightly cooler-than-normal. Winter can wait as far as I'm concerned.
Paul
