Memorial Day Forecast Includes Mother Nature's Fireworks

Memorial Day weekend --- and the unofficial start of Summer --- is upon us. Unfortunately, this will not be an ideal weekend weatherwise, but it won't be a washout, either. Tomorrow will be the best day of the three-day holiday weekend with partly-to-mostly sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 80s. Here is my latest forecast:


Memorial Day Forecast by PaulWXman

Although it seems like we've had a fair share of rain recently on Memorial Day, last year was the only time in the last five years there has been measured rain on Memorial Day in southwestern Connecticut. You may recall that Monday, May 30, 2011, brought a third of an inch of rain and extremely warm temperatures. In fact, the mercury climbed to 87 degrees last Memorial Day, establishing a new record high for the date.

According to the National Weather Service climate summary for the Greater New York City metropolitan area, measured rain fell on Memorial Day just nine times in the last 25 years (since 1987). The rainiest Memorial Day occurred on May 26, 2003, when over an inch (1.28") of rain fell during the morning hours. Rain fell on successive Memorial Days in 1995 (0.68") and 1996 (0.11"), and then again in 2003 and 2004 (0.21").

Take a look at the last five Memorial Day weather summaries for southwestern Connecticut, including the high and low temperatures, daily average, and rainfall totals:

• May 30, 2011: 87 - 67 - 77 - 0.33"
• May 31, 2010: 73 - 62 - 68 - 0.00"
• May 25, 2009: 76 - 61 - 69 - 0.00"
• May 26, 2008: 73 - 55 - 64 - trace
• May 28, 2007: 85 - 60 - 73 - 0.00"

A frontal boundary will be the focus of our holiday weekend weather. A weak warm front to the South will dissipate today, while high pressure remains to the East, and a cold front approaches from the West. The front will approach later tonight and stall over the Northeast through early Sunday, and then lift slowly North as a warm front later Sunday and Sunday night. Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes Memorial Day and move through southern Canada Monday night through Wednesday morning.

If you're wondering, the normal high and low temperatures across southwestern Connecticut for this time of the year are 70 and 54 degrees, respectively, for a daily average of 62 degrees. The record high and low temperatures for this Monday, May 28, are 90 (1991) and 40 (1961), respectively. Sunrise is at 5:23 a.m. and sunset is at 8:17 p.m. The wettest May 28 on record happened in 1985 when nearly an inch-and-a-half (1.48") was recorded at Sikorsky Airport.

Happy Memorial Day weekend.

Paul