Sunny, Blustery, & Colder Weather for Thanksgiving Day

The massive storm which brought one-to-three inches of rain, gusty winds, and power outages across southwestern Connecticut this morning will move away later this afternoon, paving the way for much colder and blustery weather to arrive for Thanksgiving Day. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and windy with an afternoon high temperature in the low-to-mid 30s, a far cry from the lower 60s this morning.

Obviously, with the date of Thanksgiving fluctuating from year to year, the weather can be very different from one year to the next. We've experienced a record-breaking rainstorm, record-setting snowstorm, unseasonably mild temperatures, and strong, gusty winds over the last 25 years on Thanksgiving Day. However, the two most memorable storms happened in 2006 and 1989.

The most memorable Thanksgiving Day over the last quarter century occurred on November 23, 1989. That's when over a half-foot of snow fell across southwestern Connecticut, marking the snowiest Thanksgiving on record in these parts. In fact, the snow began falling the night before, creating a nightmare at airports, bus depots, and roadways on the heaviest travel day of the year.

Officially, 6.2 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport. Coupled with the nearly half-inch that fell the night before, just about seven inches of snow blanketed the region. The Thanksgiving snow of 24 years ago also marked the snowiest day on record in November. Remember, the average snowfall for the entire month based on 40 years of climatology is less than an inch (0.7").

Seventeen years later to the exact day, nearly two inches of rain (1.84") fell during Thanksgiving Day, November 23, 2006, with most of it coming during the mid-to-late morning hours. That's over half the normal average rain for the entire month. I was the emcee at Fairfield Warde High School's halftime ceremony during the Mustangs' football game against arch-rival Fairfield Ludlowe. The gala event included the field dedication ceremony and 50th anniversary celebration of the opening of the school.

The heavy rain spoiled the festivities. It was almost impossible to read my tributes to Fern Tetreau and the late Bill Davis, Warde's first two football coaches, after whom the field was named. My papers were drenched, and the wind, which gusted to 30 miles an hour, nearly blew away what was left of my script. The driving rain and temperatures in the mid 40s also kept many people away from the game, and those who were left headed for shelter at halftime.

If you're counting, 11 of the last 25 Thanksgivings have produced measured rain, including a streak of four in a row from 2004 through 2007. The longest dry stretch was four years, from 2000 through 2003. Nearly an inch of rain fell on Thanksgiving Day 1998, and just about a half-inch was recorded the following year in 1999. The last two Thanksgiving days have been dry.

Paul

Thanksgiving Day Temperature Graph Over the Last 20 Years

Local climatologist Ralph Fato created this chart showing the Thanksgiving Day high temperatures at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford over the last 20+ years, since 1990.

This Thanksgiving will be one of the coldest with a daytime high temperature in the mid 30s and a gusty Northwest wind. Click the chart to enlarge for better viewing.

Paul

Thanksgiving Day Snowstorm 24 Years Ago Today Remains Snowiest November Day on Record

Twenty-four years later, the Thanksgiving Day snowstorm of November 23, 1989, still remains the snowiest November day on record in southwestern Connecticut. The storm, which began Wednesday evening, November 22, delivered over a half-foot of snow in less than 24 hours, while creating havoc on area roadways and major airports in the Northeast. Officially, 6.6 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford.

The first Thanksgiving Day snowstorm in 51 years postponed traditional high school football rivalry games and even prevented Snoopy and Bugs Bunny from making it to the big parade in Manhattan. Snow fell from Virginia to New England, breaking records in Boston, New Jersey, and New York City. By the time it dwindled to a flurry late Thursday, November 23, the storm delivered 4.7 inches of snow to Central Park.

The unforgettable storm was the seventh measurable Thanksgiving Day snow recorded in New York City since the National Weather Service started keeping records more than 120 years earlier. The last white Thanksgiving in the city was in 1938, when 3.9 inches of snow fell. In Newark, nearly six inches of snow fell in less than 24 hours, breaking the Thanksgiving record of four inches set in 1938.

The New York City police department said there were about 1.8 million spectators and marchers at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. They described it as a light to medium turnout. Strong gusts in the early morning tore at the seams and patches of the giant Snoopy and Bugs Bunny helium balloons, puncturing Snoopy's nose and tearing a hole in his comrade's side, a Macy's parade official, said.

Boston experienced the heaviest Thanksgiving Day snow in 65 years, and in southern New England, three to eight inches were recorded. Long Island was the hardest hit, in particular Northport and Centerport, where five to seven inches fell. In Brooklyn and New Jersey, up to five inches were reported. There were no record lows in temperature, however.

What do I most remember about the snowstorm? I just began working as the evening weather anchor at News 12 Connecticut two months earlier, and the snow caught just about everybody by surprise. Although there was some snow in the forecast, I distinctly remember telling the viewers that it shouldn't amount to much, and travel shouldn't be adversely affected. Boy, was I ever wrong!

Paul

A Fateful Decision That May Have Saved JFK's Life

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. The following is a CBS article on how the weather may have played a role on that fateful day.

(CBS News) President John F. Kennedy was murdered in Dallas fifty years ago today. Among the young reporters on the scene that day were Peter Jennings of Canadian TV and later ABC; Dan Rather of CBS; Jim Lehrer of the Dallas Times Herald and later PBS; and a cub reporter from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram -- our very own Bob Schieffer.

Those who covered the assassination and who are still around all these years later have had a long time to think about what might have been. It was a misty morning as the president spoke in Fort Worth. But by the time he got to Dallas, the sun had come out. Jim Lehrer was at Love Field assigned to cover the president's arrival for the Dallas Times Herald. He remembers seeing the bubble top on the presidential limousine.

"I asked the agent, a man I knew, who was the agent in charge of the Dallas office of the Secret Service," he said, "'You gonna leave the bubble top up?' I'll never forget it, Bob, he looked up at the sky and [said], 'It's clear.' So then he turns to the other agents who were all there by the car ... and he said, 'Lose the bubble top.'"

Lehrer believes it was a fateful decision. "I think Lee Harvey Oswald probably would not have taken the shots," he said had the bubble top been on the limousine.

The bubble top was not bullet proof, but it could have made the president a difficult target or it could have deflected the bullet.

Jim Lehrer ran into that same Secret Service agent later that evening at the Dallas police station. He recalls that the agent came up to him and said, "Jim, if i just hadn't taken off the bubble top."

Shorter Days Lead to Seasonal Affective Disorder

After 18-and-a-half years of working the early-morning shift, I suppose I’ve gotten used to getting up and driving to work in the dark. However, I have an especially difficult time with the Sun setting so early in the afternoon. It seems that there is very little time to do anything outside before it gets dark. In fact, one of the late buses from our neighborhood school arrived just before 5 o’clock last night when it was completely dark out. I don’t like it.

Those who work the 9-to-5 shift are coming home in the dark now. Sunset this afternoon is at 4:33. And, it only gets earlier over the month. By the end of the month, Sunset is at 4:24. The earliest time the Sun sets at our latitude is 4:23 in early December. That is a striking contrast to late June, when the latest Sunset in southwestern Connecticut happens at 8:30.

Psychologically, the darker afternoons and evenings affect many people. You’ve no doubt heard about Seasonal Affective Disorder. According to the National Mental Health Association, some people suffer from symptoms of depression during the Winter months, with those symptoms subsiding during the Spring and Summer. This may be a sign of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). SAD is a mood disorder associated with depression episodes and related to seasonal variations of light.

How does SAD affect people? People with the disorder frequently experience the following:

• Sleep problems – oversleeping but not refreshed, cannot get out of bed, needing a nap in the afternoon
• Overeating – carbohydrate craving leading to weight gain
• Depression, despair, misery, guilt, anxiety – normal tasks become frustratingly difficult
• Family / social problems – avoiding company, irritability, loss of libido, loss of feeling
• Lethargy – too tired to cope, everything an effort
• Physical symptoms – often joint pain or stomach problems, lowered resistance to infection
• Behavioral problems – especially in young people

Melatonin, a sleep-related hormone secreted by the pineal gland in the brain, has been linked to SAD. This hormone, which may cause symptoms of depression, is produced at increased levels in the dark. Therefore, when the days are shorter and darker the production of this hormone increases.

Phototherapy or bright light therapy has been shown to suppress the brain’s secretion of melatonin. Although, there have been no research findings to definitely link this therapy with an antidepressant effect, many people respond to this treatment.

I admit, the early darkness always shocks me in early November. Remember, it was just over two months ago we were still enjoying Summer and relatively brighter evenings. The Sun set at 7:25 on the first day of September. Seemingly, in the blink of an eye, we’re just about five weeks from the first day of Winter. Yeah, it’s a bummer, to be sure.

Personally, the only positive about the longer nights is the relative ease of falling asleep. I actually feel as though I should be going to bed at 8 p.m., even though it’s an early time by most people’s standards. During the Summer, it’s virtually impossible to fall asleep when the Sun is still shining, my son is playing, and I hear people laughing and talking outside. I actually embrace the darker evenings for that reason alone. After all, the 2 o’clock alarm is not a “friend,” no matter the time of the year.

So, if you don’t enjoy the shorter days and longer nights, we have about a month before the length of daylight begins to increase once again. The first day of Winter is technically “the shortest day of the year.” Before you know it, the evenings will start getting a little brighter once more.

It can’t get here fast enough!

Paul

Full Beaver Moon Happens This Sunday

You may have noticed the Moon waxing over the last several nights. In fact, it was shining brilliantly on my way to work this morning just after 3 o'clock. The Full Beaver Moon happens this Sunday morning, November 17, at 10:16. Unfortunately, there skies will be mostly cloudy late Saturday night and Sunday as a frontal system approaches from the West.

November's Full Moon is so named because this was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm Winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for Winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.



During the late 1800s, beavers were almost hunted to extinction by the white trappers and traders, because the beaver pelt became a very fashionable wardrobe accessory, especially for men's top hats in Europe and in New England. Since that time they have greatly increased in number and in the amount of damage that they cause during the building of their dams and dens.

Are you aware that a single beaver may chew down hundreds of trees every year as he continuously builds and repairs his lodges and dams? The beavers do provide habitat for other animals such as ducks and otters, but they can also cause unexpected large-scale floods.

Over ten years ago in the Washington, D.C. tidal basin, where many of the famous ornamental cherry trees bloom drawing tourists from all over the world, a family of beavers moved into the "luxurious digs." The beavers were noticed as soon as they began downing cherry trees to build their lodges. The National Park Service Rangers quickly set live humane traps and moved the family of pesky beavers to another area where the trees were not as famous or rare.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

As far as our weather goes, today will feature sunshine mixing with high clouds and temperatures in the middle 50s. Tonight will become mostly cloudy and not as cold with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Early clouds will give way to sunshine tomorrow with a high in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with some light drizzle or a sprinkle or two by afternoon with a high near 58 degrees.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

Holland Hill School's Third- and Fourth-Graders Well-Prepared for Weatherkids Visit

I visited with the third- and fourth-graders at Holland Hill School in Fairfield, Wednesday morning, November 13, 2013. They were well-prepared for my visit.

   

Paul

First Snow of Season Coats Lawns

A strong cold front brought a burst of snow to the region early this morning, which caused wet roads and a whitening of the lawns. Officially, one-tenth of an inch of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, but two inches of snow were unofficially reported in Redding. This view along Route 107 in Redding was taken by our camera during the mid-morning snow.

This wasn't the earliest snow in recent memory. That happened two years ago when a Nor'easter delivered up to a foot of snow in parts of Northern Fairfield County October 29, 2011. More than eight inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Airport last November 7 and 8. Here is a look at the dates of the first snowfall from each of the last seven years, courtesy of local climatologist Ralph Fato:

• November 12, 2013
• November 7, 2012
• October 29, 2011
• November 8, 2010
• December 5, 2009
• November 30, 2008
• December 13, 2007

The temperature was in the lower 50s at midnight, but once the cold front cleared the region, the mercury dropped like a rock. In fact, the temperature quickly fell into the low-to-mid 30s by mid-morning. Light drizzle was reported in Norwalk between 3 and 6:45 a.m. before transitioning to a mix of rain and wet snow from 6:45 to 7 o'clock. A half-inch of snow was measured in Norwalk between 7 and 9 o'clock before it tapered off.

Here are three more photos taken by Ralph. The first shows a Wintry scene along the Merritt Parkway in Stamford. The second was taken in Greenwich at 9 o'clock. The last photo was taken at the country club in New Canaan at 11 o'clock.

Paul

Wettest November on Record Happened 41 Years Ago

The last seven weeks have been extremely dry across southwestern Connecticut. Officially, just eight of the last 50 days have featured any measured rain at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. Some light rain and snow showers are expected later tonight into early tomorrow morning, but it should do little to offset a half-foot deficit in the rain gauge this year.

However, 41 years ago today, the weather picture was quite different across southwestern Connecticut. Residents were recovering after a drenching rain and wind storm. Winds gusted to 67 miles-an-hour and over three inches of rain fell across the region, causing broken windows, downed trees, power outages, and significant property damage. It was the first of two significant rainstorms within a week during the wettest November on record.

Nearly a foot of rain (10.22") fell during November of 1972, establishing an all-time record for the month. Consider that the normal average rain for the entire month is 3.65 inches. This November, by contrast, nine of the first 10 days were completely dry. The November 8, 1972 storm delivered 3.04 inches of rain. Just six days later, November 14, nearly three more inches (2.84") soaked the area.

According to the Thursday, November 9, 1972 edition of The Bridgeport Post, "The full force of the coastal storm struck between 2 and 4 o'clock yesterday, slowing traffic on the Connecticut Turnpike and the Merritt Parkway, as the wind-driven rain cut visibility sharply. Public Works Department crews in Bridgeport and across the county were kept busy throughout the afternoon and evening cleaning up fallen tree limbs and branches."

The report stated that the worst electrical interruptions occurred in Norwalk and New Canaan, where 2,600 customers of the Connecticut Light and Power Company were without electricity for varying amounts of time yesterday afternoon and last night. The United Illuminating Company reported a large number of small power failures, resulting from wind gusts, but no major power interruption.

According to the newspaper account, in Milford, a wind gust sent a beach umbrella high in the air and smashed it down on a police patrol car at 2:30 p.m. at Yale Avenue and Easy Street. The policeman said he was unable to avoid the umbrella. It damaged the patrol car's searchlight and left fender, and a moment later struck a parked car anb flew off. Smashed display windows were plentiful as wind gusts reached gale level. One gust of wind peeled off a 30-foot section of a new roof on the Pleasure Beach ballroom.

This November is quite different from the soaker we experienced back in 1972. After tomorrow morning's light rain and snow showers, it will turn windy and much colder with a daytime high temperature in the lower 40s. Temperatures will begin to moderate by the end of the week and this weekend, but no rain is in sight until at least the beginning of next week.

Paul

Classic Nor'easter Dumped Over a Half-Foot of Snow to Region One Year Ago

Just nine days after Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of southwestern Connecticut, especially shoreline communities, a classic Nor'easter brought gusty winds, cold temperatures, and record-breaking snow to the region, Wednesday, November 7, 2012. The snow began falling late-morning as the storm exploded, causing bands of moderate-to-heavy snow to fall the rest of the day and through the night.

Officially, Sikorsky Memorial Airport recorded 8.3 inches of snow from November 7 through early November 8. The six inches that fell November 7 was a record for the date and the second snowiest November day on record. More than a half-foot of snow (6.2 inches) fell on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 23, 1989. Three inches of snow fell as recently as November 27, 2002, but nothing quite like what we experienced last year at this time. The photos are courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk.

Here are some of the snowfall totals from across southwestern Connecticut:

• Monroe: 11.5"
• Danbury: 9.9"
• Bridgeport: 8.0"
• Ridgefield: 8.0"
• Darien: 7.9"
• Greenwich: 6.0"
• Trumbull: 6.0"
• New Canaan: 6.0"
• Norwalk: 5.8"
• Stamford: 5.3"

A strong North wind continued to pull colder air into much of New England throughout the day. The high temperature of 39 degrees November 7 happened at 10:21 a.m. By mid-afternoon, the mercury had dropped into the low-to-mid 30s, causing the precipitation to fall as heavy wet snow. The low temperature fell to 31 degrees at 8:24 p.m. The normal high and low temperatures for November 7 are 56 and 40 degrees, respectively. The average temperature of 35 degrees on November 7 was 13 degrees colder than the normal average of 48.

Initially, it appeared the storm would be more of a wind-maker rather than a snow-maker, as computer models pushed the center of the storm farther to the East. However, the winds never reached the 50-mph forecast gusts which were anticipated. The highest wind gust at Sikorsky Airport was 36 miles per hour out of the North, and the highest wind speed was 29 miles an hour. The average wind speed during the storm was 19.2 miles an hour.

Paul

Weather Plays Role in Election Day Outcomes

Today is Election Day. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate, although you'll need to wear a coat or jacket. Today will become partly sunny and chilly with a high near 50 degrees. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. There are many local races on the ballot. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut this evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul

Previewing November's Weather

November is starting on a mild note with high temperatures climbing well into the 60s to close to 70 degrees today. However, a front will push through the region later today followed by a secondary cold front late tomorrow, and that will bring the coldest air in quite some time to the region Sunday night into Monday morning. So, what can we expect during the month of November? Just about anything.

Snow is certainly not out of the question during this month. You may recall that last year over eight inches of snow (8.3") fell at Sikorsky Airport in Stratford from November 7th to the 8th. The most memorable Thanksgiving Day in recent memory occurred in 1989 when over a half-foot of snow fell that day. The snow began falling shortly after midnight, and by the time it ended late Thanksgiving afternoon, it was the biggest single-day snow event in November.

Snow also fell twice in 1995, including 2.4 inches on November 29 of that year. That was the snowiest Winter on record across southwestern Connecticut. Another "snowstorm" of note happened on November 6 and 7 of 1953 when a combined 5.4 inches fell. However, the average snow for the month is only 0.6 inches.

November can also be a wet month, too. The most precipitation in November occured in 1972 when 10.22 inches were recorded. There have also been some impressive single-day totals, including 3.12" (Nov. 2, 1954), 3.04" (Nov. 8, 1972), and 2.91" (Nov. 10, 1948). The average precipitation for the month is 3.81 inches, ranking it fourth behind March, May, and April as the wettest months of the year. The driest November happened 37 years ago when only 0.36" fell in 1976.

We begin to experience a dramatic decline in average temperatures, too. At the start of the month, the normal high and low are 59 and 43 degrees, respectively. However, by month's end, the normals are 47 and 33. That's an 11-degree drop in the mean temperature. The average high temperature is 53 degrees, while the average low for the month is 38.2 degrees.

The warmest November on record occured in 1975 when the average temperature was a relatively balmy 50.5 degrees. The coldest November happened 17 years ago, in 1996, when the mercury averaged 40.7 degrees. Although the temperature has never officially reached 80 degrees at the airport during the month, we've come close a few times. The warmest single day reading was 78 degrees which happened twice, on Nov. 4, 1975, and Nov. 15, 1993. Other notable warm days include 77 degrees (Nov. 2, 1950), and 72 degrees (Nov. 5, 1961).

The length of daylight continues to decrease with each passing day. We're a little more than seven weeks from the Winter Solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. By the middle of the month, Sunrise and Sunset are at 6:41 a.m. and 4:33 p.m., respectively. By the last day of the month, the Sun rises at 6:58 in the morning and sets at 4:24 in the afternoon. That's only one minute later than the earliest Sunset, at 4:23, in early-to-mid December.

The Full Beaver Moon happens November 17th at 10:16 a.m. EST. Why the Beaver Moon? This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

Welcome to November.

Paul