Moderate-to-Severe Drought Across Region

It's that time of the year again when lawns turn brown, gardens are drying out, and we desperately need rain. It seems like every Summer we experience a prolonged period of hot, dry weather, and this year is no exception. We've only had one day with measured rain this month, and that happened on Independence Day when less than a third-of-an-inch (0.29") fell across the region.

As each day passes, our yearly rainfall deficit grows. We've received nearly a foot-and-a-half (17.82") of precipitation since January 1, which is nearly five inches below the normal value of 22.64" through July 12. In fact, there have been just two days with measured rain dating back to June 26. Last year, however, was a completely different story. We had over 30 inches in the rain gauge, highlighted by over a half-foot of rain in June.

Take a look at the comparison between this year's and last year's monthly rainfall totals. The data is taken from weather observations at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford:

Month              2011                      2012                Normal

January                 4.75"                       2.98"                   3.73"

February               4.36"                       1.58"                   2.92"

March                   3.61"                       1.04"                   4.15"

April                     4.63"                        2.97"                  3.99"

May                      5.61"                       4.57"                   4.03"
June                     6.54"                       4.39"                   3.57"

July                       2.00"                       0.29"                   3.77"

You'll notice that last year's totals were higher every month, and there was only one month (March) which featured below-normal rainfall. More than a half-foot of rain fell in June, and nearly a half-foot was recorded in May. This year, however, only May and June have delivered above-normal rainfall. This month has been especially dry, and it comes when the Sun's rays are strongest and the average daytime temperatures are at their warmest. A quick glance at the latest Drought Severity Index map shows that we are experiencing moderate-to-severe drought conditions.

Some rain is in the forecast, however, as the heat and humidity build by the end of the weekend. A frontal boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning, and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected later Sunday. Daytime highs will reach into the 80s over the weekend, while nighttime lows hold close to 70 degrees. We'll bake and broil Monday through Wednesday before a powerful cold front brings the potential for strong storms to the region by Wednesday. We do need the rain!

Paul