Severe Storms Expected This Evening

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a moderate risk of strong-to-severe weather from late this afternoon through about midnight. The atmosphere will become quite warm and humid today as temperatures soar into the mid-to-upper 80s, fueling the formation of strong thunderstorms, which may include damaging winds, small hail, vivid lightning, and even the possibility of tornadic activity. In short, the threat of severe weather is enhanced this evening.

Nearly three-quarters of Connecticut, especially the Western half, has a five percent chance of a tornado along the line of severe storms this evening. The image below shows the shaded areas in the Northeast with the accompanying probability of tornadic development.

The air is certainly more humid this morning, and some light rain developed during the morning commute. A line of thunderstorms moved across Western Fairfield County between 9 o'clock and 9:45 this morning. A storm over the Great Lakes region will track to the East today, moving into the region late this afternoon and through the area later this evening. That's when the best chance of severe weather will happen, generally between 5 p.m. and midnight.

What does this mean for us? First of all, be prepared for power outages. Our Power Outage Index is registering a "likely" for much of the region early tonight. Damaging winds may bring down tree limbs, power lines, and small trees. Have flashlights with fresh batteries at the ready. Also, make sure storm drains are cleaned and not clogged. Heavy downpours may cause ponding and flooding of low-lying areas. Finally, if you have a generator, make sure it's ready with a full tank of gasoline. You can never be too prepared for violent weather.

A frontal boundary will become nearly stationary late tonight as waves of low pressure move along the front tonight into Friday. That will bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms. The frontal system will slowly push across and then East of the region Friday night through Saturday night. Spot showers and storms are possible through this weekend, especially Saturday, before weak high pressure arrives Sunday into the beginning of next week.

Paul