June Weather Preview

I certainly hope you enjoyed Memorial Day weekend. The weather was quite warm and humid, especially yesterday. The high temperature at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford Monday afternoon was 87 degrees, tying the record high for the date which was set in 1987. We'll finish May on a sunny and warm not, but it won't be as humid as highs reach the mid 80s inland and 70s along the immediate shoreline due to an afternoon sea breeze.

 
June is here already, and that means the length of daylight continues to grow, and the first day of Summer is just around the corner. The direct rays of the Sun strike the Tropic of Cancer at 1:16 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 21, reaching their northernmost point on the face of the Earth. That marks the start of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

As far as our June weather is concerned, the average high temperature for southwestern Connecticut jumps to 80 degrees by the end of the month, a leap of seven degrees from June 1. The all-time record high for the month is 97 degrees, which was established during the record-breaking heat wave on June 9, 2008.

That unusual late-Spring heat wave three years ago forced early dismissals and closings at area schools. The unseasonably warm air arrived Sunday, June 8, when the mercury reached 90 degrees. The next two days featured daytime high temperatures of 97 and 96 degrees, respectively, capping a most unusually hot stretch of weather for early June.

The mercury also reached 96 degrees two other times (June 19, 1994, and June 26, 1949). Record high temperatures of 95 degrees have been set three times, including back-to-back days of June 16 and 17 of 1957. The warmest June on record happened in 1994 when the average temperature for the month was 71.7 degrees, well above the 68.0 degree normal.

On the flip side, early June can still be gray, damp, and cool. Although the temperature has never fallen below 40 degrees for the month, the record lows for the first half of June are consistently in the lower 40s. The chilliest morning was 41 degrees on June 1, 1967. The “coldest” June on record happened in 1982 when the average temperature was 63.8 degrees, over four degrees colder than normal!

The wettest June on record happened 38 years ago in 1972 when nearly a foot-and-a-half of rain fell (17.7″). That’s well above the 3.57″ norm based on 40 years of climatology. Unbelievably, there was nearly a completely dry June in 1949 when only 0.07″ of rain was recorded. The most rain recorded in one day happened on June 19, 1972 when 6.18″ fell. Nearly five inches (4.79″) fell on June 5, 1982.

The length of daylight continues to grow during the month. In fact, by the start of June the sky begins to brighten in the East a little before 4 o’clock in the morning. I can actually hear a few birds chirping when I arrive at the News 12 Connecticut studios shortly after three o’clock in the morning. June features the “longest days” of the year, and by the end of the month the Sun sets at 8:30, the latest ever in southwestern Connecticut. The earliest Sunrise happens at 5:18 from June 13 through June 16.

June features the Full Strawberry Moon. It will be full on June 15th at 4:14 p..m. This name was was universal to every Algonquin tribe. However, in Europe they called it the Rose Moon. The relatively short season for harvesting strawberries comes each year during the month of June, so the Full Moon that occurs during that month was christened for the strawberry!

Happy June.

Paul

Rainy Pattern Keeps Local Reservoir Levels at or Near Capacity

More than a half-inch of rain fell yesterday, bringing the monthly total to well over five inches. The rainy pattern has persisted for most of May, keeping local reservoir levels at or near capacity. Officially, we've received 5.26" of rain this month, well above the 2.99" normal through yesterday. The yearly precipitation total (22.61") is nearly five inches above normal (17.78").

So, how are the local reservoirs doing? The latest report issued by the Connecticut Department of Public Health, shows levels above normal for most of the state's reservoirs. Aquarion Water Company of Connecticut reports that the Greenwich system is at 99.5% of capacity, which is 102% of normal. The Stamford and Norwalk systems are at 100% of capacity, putting Stamford at 106% of normal and Norwalk at  101% of normal.

The following bar graph illustrates that reservoir capacity levels statewide are at their highest point in more than a year. The levels were at their lowest point in September and October last year when they fell below 80 percent capacity. The current levels for each month are shaded in blue, while historical levels are indicated in purple.

 
Monday's rain marked the 10th wet day this month. In fact, eight of the last ten days have featured measured rain, including 2.35" on May 18, 1.26" on May 17, and nearly a half-inch on May 4 and May 14. Since the start of meteorological Spring --- March 1 --- we've seen over a foot of rain (13.50"), nearly two-and-a-half inches above the 11.13" normal through today. In case you're wondering, 2.74" fell last May.

Today will be a warmer and more humid day with a chance of showers or thunderstorms developing later this afternoon as high temperatures reach into the 70s. Tonight will be cloudy and mild with early showers or storms and lows of 58 to 63. Tomorrow and Thursday will be the best days of the week under mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to close to 60 degrees. Scattered storms are likely Friday through Sunday.

Paul 

Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts in 11 days, and it will be a busy one if this year's predictions are accurate. Federal forecasters announced yesterday that they expect three-to-six major hurricanes during what they say should be an above-average Atlantic storm season. Thankfully, no major hurricane has made landfall in the United States during the last five years, but forecasters warned Atlantic and Gulf coast residents their luck could run out this year.

You may recall that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was well above average, with the most number of named storms since 2005. There were 19 named storms, which tied the 1995 and 1887 Atlantic hurricane seasons for the third largest number of named storms. It also featured 12 hurricanes, which tied the 1969 season for the second largest number of hurricanes. 

As for this year, as many as 18 named tropical storms may develop during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season which begins June 1. That's the word from forecasters at the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. Six-to-10 of those storms could strengthen into hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three-to-six of those could become major hurricanes, with maximum winds of 111 miles per hour or more. 

The 2011 season was not expected to be as extreme, since ocean temperatures are only two degrees warmer than normal. Last year, the ocean temperature was four degrees warmer. Also, a Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon known as “La Nina’’ was expected to dissipate early in the Summer before the season’s peak, which is typically from August to October.

The American Red Cross says families can take steps now to create an emergency plan. "This is an ideal time to get a disaster supply kit ready, make an evacuation plan with your family, and get information on what to do during a hurricane," said Charley Shimanski, senior vice president of Red Cross Disaster Services. "It's also the right time to learn how to locate a shelter, and new technology is making it even easier to do that."

Short-term, our weekend weather looks fairly good, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. However, keep an eye to the sky later this afternoon for a possible strong thunderstorm, especially if any sunshine breaks through to stir up the atmosphere. Today's high will reach the mid 60s along the coast and 70 degrees or better inland. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high of 72, and fair and cooler weather is expected Sunday.

Have a good weekend.

Paul 

Today Marks 15th Anniversary of Warmest Spring Day on Record

Today marks the 15th anniversary of the warmest May day on record. The mercury soared to 97 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on Monday, May 20, 1996, nearly 30 degrees higher than the average high temperature for the date. In fact, only one other Spring day has been as warm, and that happened on June 9 of 2008. What made the record high of 1996 so memorable was that it happened just 40 days after nearly a foot of snow capped the snowiest Winter on record, and just days after much colder-than-normal temperatures.

“Just over a week ago, the climate got rewound to Winter,” wrote N. R. Kleinfield of The New York Times in an article dated May 21, 1996. “Six inches of snow coated parts of upstate New York (as if the year required more snow). In the city last week, the high temperature dipped to the 50s. Spring, you might have noticed, either got lost or just forgot to come. Then came yesterday (May 20, 1996). It all got fast-forwarded to August. “Bathing suits instead of ski parkas,” he continued.

“Turn off the heater and turn up the air-conditioner. What’s going on? Is this Earth or is this Mars? People could be excused for being mystified, discombobulated, distraught, furious, dazed, crazed, tentative, dizzy and, of course, just plain really, really hot.” The temperature reached a record high of 96 degrees in Central Park, eclipsing the previous record of 91 set in 1959, and a new record was established in Newark, where it was 99 degrees. Incredibly, just over a week earlier, on the weekend of May 11 and 12, 1996, it snowed in upstate New York.

Remember, the first two-and-a-half weeks of May in 1996 were unseasonably chilly. The record heat and outages at two power plants, one in Westchester and one in upstate New York, reduced the electricity reserves of New York state’s power pool, leading Consolidated Edison to ask customers to curtail electricity consumption. With air-conditioners thrumming away, demand in New York City reached around 9,000 megawatts, well above the normal 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts for this time of year.

Twelve years later, a late Spring scorcher, which included another 97-degree Spring day, forced area schools to dismiss early and close in early June of 2008. Temperatures soared to 90 degrees or hotter on Sunday, June 8 (90 degrees), Monday, June 9 (97), and Tuesday, June 10 (96). The normal high temperature for the first week of June is 74 degrees. It’s the first time in recent memory that school systems shut down due to the oppressive heat.

It won't be nearly as hot this afternoon, but it will certainly be humid. There is a chance of a shower or stronger thunderstorm as the low pressure system which brought plenty of rain to the region continues to spin over the Northeast. High temperatures will hover close to 70 degrees. Another spot shower or storm is possible tomorrow, but the weekend weather will be much better than what we've experienced this week.

Paul

Second Straight Day of Record Rain Punctuates Dreary Week of Weather

This has been one of the dreariest weeks of weather in recent memory. Yesterday marked the fifth straight day with measured rain across southwestern Connecticut, and we haven't seen much of the Sun since last Friday. Unfortunately, the weather pattern responsible for this week's weather won't move away any time soon. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm are in the forecast the next two days with afternoon high temperatures into the 60s.

Officially, nearly two-and-a-half inches (2.35") of rain fell yesterday at Sikorsky Memorial Airport, marking the second straight day of record rain. Well over an inch (1.26") of rain was measured Tuesday, bringing the two-day total to more than three-and-a-half inches. The total amount of rain over the last five days (4.18") is greater than the normal rainfall (4.03") for the entire month, based on 40+ years of averages.
Take a look at the rain amounts from each of the last five days:

• Saturday: 0.45"
• Sunday: 0.09"
• Monday: 0.03"
• Tuesday: 1.26"
• Wednesday: 2.35"

Not surprisingly, this year's precipitation total is well above normal. Since January 1, nearly two feet (22.01") of liquid precipitation has been measured, which is much greater than the 17.13" normal through today. Thus far this month, the rain gauge shows 4.66" of rain, nearly double the 2.34" normal through May 19. In addition, since the start of climatological Spring --- March 1 --- over a foot of rain (12.90") has fallen, and that's more than the 10.48" normal through the last 40 days.


I'm afraid the unsettled weather pattern will continue the next couple of days. Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with patchy fog and a few scattered showers. There may even be a strong thunderstorm this afternoon if any sunshine is able to break through the clouds. Tomorrow will be cloudy with a few showers and a possible storm with daytime highs in the 60s.

I'm sick of this weather!

Paul

This Week's Weather Will Affect How We Feel

A Flood Watch is in effect for southwestern Connecticut through tomorrow evening with the potential of two-to-four inches of rain possible by late Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Watch has been posted for late tonight as tides may run one-and-a-half to two feet above normal. The rain will gradually taper to showers by the end of the week, but flooding of low-lying areas, basements, and local roads is possible.

Let's face it, this week's weather will affect how we feel, for sure. I know it's affecting me. How do you feel this week? Tired? Lethargic? Sleepy? The rainy weather and raw East wind will affect you more than you think. There has been measured rain at Sikorsky Memorial Airport each of the last two days, and the next two days will be the wettest this week. Today's high temperatures will not make it out of the 50s. So, if you're feeling "out of it," you probably aren't alone.



According to the Web site Science Daily, “The positive impact warm, sunny weather can have on mental health and mood are real,” are the findings of a University of Michigan study. “It should not be surprising that weather and seasons affect human behavior, given that humans have evolved with seasonal and weather changes since the dawn of the species.”

Researchers found that pleasant weather improves mood, memory, broadens our creative ability and our openness to new information. “Being outside in pleasant weather really offers a way to re-set your mindset,” said Matthew Keller, the University of Michigan post-doctoral researcher who led the weather-related psychological study. “We found two important variables: how much time you spend outside and what the season is.”

Ten mood variables were related to eight weather variables in a multidimensional study on weather according to pubmed.org. Data was collected for 23 male subjects over 11 consecutive days. Mood variables included concentration, depression, sleepiness, optimism, and skepticism. The weather variables included hours of sunshine, precipitation, and temperature.

“Humidity, temperature, and hours of sunshine had the greatest effect on mood,” the study found. “High levels of humidity lowerered scores on concentration while increasing reports of sleepiness. Humidity was the most significant predictor in regression.” Our humidity will be extremely high all week long. Were you feeling tired or having trouble concentrating? The study adds that the implications for school and work performance are critical, and it highlights the importance of humidity as a weather variable.

We won't begin to see any improvement until this weekend. This may be one of the worst weeks of weather in recent memory. Fortunately, this weekend is looking much better under developing sunshine and milder temperatures. I don;t know about you, but I can't wait for the weekend. Until then, it wouldn't be a bad idea to take a long nap.

Paul

Walk for Wishes Hero Parade Takes Place Tomorrow at Jennings Beach in Fairfield

I was honored to accept an invitation as an honorary event chair and master of ceremonies for the annual Walk for Wishes and Hero Parade, sponsored by the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Connecticut, tomorrow morning at Jennings Beach in Fairfield. The event kicks off at 10 o'clock under mostly cloudy skies and a chance of a sprinkle or shower. The mission of the foundation is to grant the wishes of children with life-threatening medical conditions to enrich the human experience with hope, strength, and joy.

The 25th Anniversary Walk for Wishes and Hero Parade, which in the past has helped to grant countless wishes, will feature the annual walk with the "wish kids" past and present, accompanied by their "heroes," such as police officers, firefighters, doctors, teachers, and whomever the kids invite to walk with them to raise money for the foundation. Approximately 500 people, including me will take part in the walk. Following the walk is a beach and block party for the kids and their families with moon bounces, a disc jockey, face painting, and hula lessons on the beach.

"With your dedicated involvement in the community, to the local schools and kids, and being the fun and engaging weatherman you are, we could not think of anyone else to help us in our efforts," said Michael Dominick, the communications manager for the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Connecticut. "We would love to (have you) as an honorary event chair and help us to spread awareness of the event in Fairfield and surrounding areas."



Dominick has an exciting day planned for the participants. Before the walk, superheroes Batman and Riddler will arrive. Not surprisingly, a chase will ensue, during which the Riddler is captured by the Fairfield police and put into a police car. The walkers will warm up with yoga stretching exercises, and the disc jockey will play uptempo music to kick off the walk. Lunch will be served at 12 o'clock, and the fundraising awards will close the program.

Dominick added, "My brother was a wish kid way back in 1983, so I can speak from personal experience on just how magical the essence of a wish truly is. It gives kids something to look forward to when there's not a whole lot of wonderful things to look forward to, and it gives the entire family a chance to be just that again --- a family."

Paul

Four Planets Visible in Early Morning Sky This Month

We're enjoying another delightful Spring day across southwestern Connecticut under mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 60s, which is just about normal for this time of the year. However, there is a gusty Northwest wind, but that is helping to keep a huge ocean storm well offshore. Some more clouds are expected tomorrow, but the rest of the week will be fairly quiet as daytime highs reach into the lower 70s by Friday.

You may want to get up a little earlier the next two mornings if you'd like to see a rare sight of three planets "clustering" together in the early morning sky. Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter will be involved in a series of conjunctions this month, and they will be joined at the end of the month by a waning crescent Moon. Twice this month three planets will converge in the sky to form a trio just above the Eastern horizon.

The first show happens the next two mornings. Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter will converge within 2.05 degrees of each other. Although they are millions of miles apart, Venus and Jupiter will seem to come within inches of each other in the sky, while Mars will appear to the lower left. Unfortunately, the best view of the formation will be in the Southern states. However, binoculars and telescopes should help, since earlier daylight makes the formation harder to see as dawn approaches.

A second celestial "show" happens ten days later on May 21. Another trio, this time formed by Mercury, Venus, and Mars, will crowd within a 2.13-degree circle in the early morning sky. Then late in the month, on three successive mornings from May 29th through the 31st, the waning crescent Moon will arrive, sweeping past Jupiter, Mars, Venus, and Mercury stretched out across the Eastern sky from the upper right to lower left.

The Moon and planets will rise into view during late twilight and will be visible very low on the East-Northeast horizon by sunrise. In order to see them, you shouldn't have any obstructions in your line of sight, such as trees or buildings in that direction. Since they'll be so close to the horizon just before sunrise, you may only see Venus and Jupiter with unaided eyes. It's still worth it, though. Good luck.

Paul

Snow Fell Across Connecticut on This Date in 1977

Here's a little-known fact which just may surprise you: snow fell across southwestern Connecticut and much of New England on this date — May 9 — in 1977. Just to be sure, I visited the local library and found several newspaper articles documenting the snow. While only a trace of snow was recorded at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, substantial snow was reported in much of northern Connecticut.

According to a story which appeared in The Bridgeport Post the following day, the Northeast felt the lingering effects of a storm that brought more than a foot of snow in some areas and power failures to thousands. Utilities in Connecticut and Massachusetts said about 110,000 customers were without electricity because of power lines knocked down by snow-laden tree limbs. The temperature dropped to a record-low of 37 degrees in our region.



Unofficially, up to a foot of heavy snow fell in the Northwest hills of Connecticut, and the Greater Hartford area recieved its first measurable May snow since 1903 when records were first kept. The National Weather Service reported eight-tenths of an inch of snow at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, about 20 miles North of Hartford.

The snow forced the closing or delayed-opening of schools in the harder hit areas of Connecticut. At its peak, it left an estimated 25,000 Northeast Utilities customers without electricity. A spokesman was quoted as saying that the heavy snow snapped off tree limbs, and they dragged down power lines. The Southern New England Telephone Company reported about 500 customers lost service in Torrington and Kent, also due to downed lines.



The snow also tore down acres of tent-like coverings over tobacco fields in Connecticut and Massachusetts. As the wet snow ripped through the thin, billowing cloth, poles and wires used to support the snow snapped. The executive dorector of the Connecticut Shade Tobacco Growers Association said a modest estimate of the damage was $1.5 million. He said 80 percent of the damage was in Connecticut.

The story writer added, “On the brighter side, operators of two shopping malls in Eastern Connecticut apparently felt it was better to join Mother Nature than to fight her. So, in recognition of a Winter that refused to say farewell, they piped in Sleigh Bells Ring and I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas.”

Interestingly, today is not the latest date on which snow has fallen across southwestern Connecticut. A trace of snow actually fell as late as May 27, 1961, when the temperature dropped to a record low of 36 degrees at the airport. Consider the normal high temperature for that date is 70 degrees. That’s why I love our weather so much. Just about anything can happen!

Paul

Dogwood Festival Kicks off Mother's Day Weekend

Mother's Day weekend is here, and Mother Nature will deliver a gift to us with a fairly nice Sunday under a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the mid 60s. There is a slight chance of a scattered shower but most, if not all, of the day will be dry. Unfortunately, a shower or two can be expected late tonight, and tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers, but there won't be any heavy, day-long rain.

That's certainly good news, considering two of the last three weekends featured well over an inch of rain. However, since the start of the year, our weekend weather has been pretty good. In fact, only six of the 18 weekends (33%) thus far this year have had any measured rain. Even better, just two of the last eight weekends have been wet, dating back to the first weekend of March.
Here's a look at our weekend weather this year

• January: 2 wet weekends, 3 dry weekends; total weekend rain 0.06"
• February: 1 wet weekend, 3 dry weekends; total weekend rain 0.05"
• March: 1 wet weekend, 3 dry weekends; total weekend rain 1.26"
• April: 2 wet weekends, 3 dry weekends; total weekend rain 2.82"
• Yearly total: 6 wet weekends, 12 dry weekends; total weekend rain 4.19"

The Mother's Day weekend gets off to an early start today as the 76th annual Dogwood Festival begins high atop Greenfield Hill in Fairfield. The event, which is traditionally held on Mother's Day weekend, draws people from all over the Northeast. From its humble beginnings on a card table that displayed handmade aprons and similar items three-quarters of a century ago, the Festival has grown into an event which attracts thousands each year.


Every year, the festival offers an opportunity for all to share the beauty of the historic hill. I've been at Greenfield Hill to provide LIVE weather reports a number of times to promote the Dogwood Festival, and it seems that rain has always been in the forecast just about every year. This year, Mother Nature is promising some showers Saturday, but we'll enjoy a nice finish to the Mother's Day weekend.

Happy Mother's Day!

Paul

Celebrate National Teacher Day & Teacher Appreciation Week

Today is National Teacher Day, which is observed on Tuesday during the first full week of May. We honor professional educators and acknowledge the crucial role teachers play in making sure every student receives a quality education. Each week when I visit a different school across southwestern Connecticut, I'm always impressed with the commitment and dedication of our teachers to their craft and their students. Clearly, they have a passion for what they do, and it shows through their creativity and energy.

The demands and challenges teachers face today are much different than when I left the classroom nearly 16 years ago. I taught middle school Science and English from 1985 to 1995, long before the widespread use of modern-day technology, which has become an integral part of the educational experience. Educators are constantly improving their curricula, and many attend classes and seminars during the Summer months to learn new methods of instruction and classroom management.

This week is National Teacher Appreciation Week. According to the teacher appreciation Web site, "Teaching is possibly one of the most vocational jobs. It is simply impossible to teach if you don’t like that activity, or if you don’t care for your students. Care, that’s the word. But, how often do we, the rest of us, care for our current or former teachers? How often do we show our teacher appreciation? How often do we thank them for their care, efforts and help?"

A teacher’s highest reward is feeling the true appreciation and gratitude of his or her current or former students. I know, because I've received letters and phone calls from former students of mine. I can't tell you how rewarding it is to hear from a student I taught 25, 20, or even 15 years ago telling me how much they learned and enjoyed my classes. I still enjoy teaching today. Here are two photos of my recent school visits with News 12 Connecticut's Weatherkids from Fairfield Woods Middle School and West School in New Canaan.





If you have children in the school system, I'm sure you're grateful for the work of our teachers. Even if you don't have any school-aged children, I'm sure you're aware of the work of our dedicated educators. They deserve our support, and I applaud them. I have a son at Fairfield Ludlowe High School and another son at Fairfield Woods Middle School. I'll be sure to thank both of my sons' teachers this week.

Thank you, teachers.

Paul

Connecticut Associated Press Broadcasters' Association Honorable Mention Award Continues Impressive Eight-Year Stretch of Accolades

The honorable mention award I received from the Connecticut Associated Press Broadcasters' Association for Best Weathercast at its annual awards banquet last Friday continued a remarkable and impressive eight-year stretch of professional awards and accolades. Here is a yearly summary of my accomplishments since 2004:

• 2004 - Connecticut Associated Press, honorable mention, Best Weathercast
• 2005 - New England Emmy nomination
• 2006 - Connecticut Associated Press, award winner, Best Weathercast
• 2007 - New York Emmy award winner, Best Weathercast
• 2008 - Connecticut Associated Press, award winner, Best Weathercast; New York Emmy nominee
• 2009 - Connecticut Associated Press, award winner, Best Weathercast; Fairfield County Weekly Readers' Poll, runnerup, Best Local TV Personality
• 2010 - New York Emmy nominee; Fairfield County Weekly Readers' Poll, runnerup, Best Local TV Personality
• 2011 - Connecticut Associated Press, honorable mention, Best Weathercast; Fairfield County Weekly Readers' Poll, runnerup, Best Local TV Personality

Paul