April-Like Temperatures to Christen the Start of February

This has been one of the quietest Winters in recent memory. Less than a foot of snow (11.4") has been recorded since the October Nor'easter, which is two-and-a-half inches below normal through this date. However, that doesn't come close to the 54.4 inch total we received through January one year ago. Now, a warm-up is expected today and tomorrow with daytime high temperatures climbing into the 50s. In case you're wondering, the first day of Spring is exactly seven weeks from tomorrow.

This Thursday is Groundhog Day. Another huge crowd is expected at Gobbler's Nob to find out whether Punxatawney Phil, the famed "weather prognosticator," sees his shadow. If Phil emerges from his burrow to see his shadow, we can be assured of at least six more weeks of Winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, Spring can't be far behind. I hope he doesn't see his shadow. This Winter has been a welcome change from what we experienced just one year ago.

Another benchmark of the season occurs two days later, Saturday, February 4th. That's when we reach the official midpoint of Winter, marking 45 days since the Winter Solstice and 45 days until the Vernal Equinox. I've always considered the date an important milestone, since we've begun "turning the corner," so-to-speak.  However, there is still quite a bit of Winter left.

As for February, it brings an average of 7.2 inches of snow locally, trailing only January as the snowiest month of the year based on 40 years of climatology. There have been a couple of memorable snowstorms in February, including the 16-inch President's Day blizzard, Monday, February 17, 2003. That still stands as the snowiest February day on record. Other impressive snowstorms next month include the 15.9 inch storm on February 9, 1969, and 13 inches of snow on February 16, 1958. There were three other snowstorms with at least a foot of snow, most recently the 12.5 inches which fell on February 12, 2006.

The average daily temperatures begin to slowly climb during February, from a mean of 30 on February 1 to a mean of 35 by the end of the month. The average daily high temperature jumps from 37 to 41 degrees, and the average overnight low temperature increases from 23 to 28. The coldest February day on record across southwestern Connecticut was five degrees below zero on February 8, 1963. The mercury fell to three degrees below zero on February 2, 1961.

There have been several mild days in February, too. The warmest temperature ever recorded during the month was 67 degrees, established three times, most recently on February 27, 1997. There have been 11 dates in February on which the mercury reached at least 60 degrees. The warmest February on record locally happened in 1997 when the average temperature was 37.3 degrees.

On the flip side, the coldest February on record happened in 1978 when the average temperature was only 24.1 degrees. That was also the year of the famous blizzard when nearly a foot of snow fell on February 6, and the late-Governor Ella Grasso effectively "closed the state" due to the heavy snow and icy roadways.

The amount of daily sunshine continues to increase throughout the month. On the first day of the month, we enjoy a little more than 10 hours of daylight. However, by the last day of the month, the Sun is out for 11 hours and 16 minutes. That's an increase of one hour and 12 minutes! In fact, the Sun sets at 5:09 tomorrow afternoon, but it doesn't drop below the horizon until 5:42 on February 28. Sunrise also happens earlier throughout the month. The Sun rises at 7:04 on the first day of the month, but it rises over a half-hour earlier (6:27) by the last day of the month!

Can Spring be far behind?

Paul

St. Thomas Aquinas Catholic School Third-Graders Shine as Weatherkids

I always enjoy visiting local elementary and middle schools across southwestern Connecticut every week as part of my Weatherkids program. The weekly feature is sponsored by Merit Insurance, and it is tremendously popular with teachers, students, and parents alike. The program started in 1993.

This week I met with the third-graders at St. Thomas Aquinas Catholic School in Fairfield. They enjoyed the weather experiments, trivia, and the opportunity to give the local forecast on television.



Paul

Blizzard-Like Snowstorm One Year Ago Produced Snowiest January on Record

A powerful storm exploded over southwestern Connecticut one year ago this morning, delivering heavy snow, gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. Nearly a foot-and-a-half of snow was reported in most communities in the area before the snow moved away by daybreak, January 26, 2011. Not surprisingly, it resulted in the snowiest January on record across southwestern Connecticut.

Officially, after that memorable storm, nearly three feet (34.8") of snow had fallen at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, breaking the previous January record of 26.2 inches set in 1965. The normal snowfall for the month is 8.5 inches. Two years ago, only 7.7 inches of snow fell in January. Take a look at this photo from viewer Margaret in Devon which was taken at 2 o'clock in the morning one year ago today.



Here are snowfall totals from Wednesday, January 26, 2011:

• Norwalk: 17.0"
• Darien: 15.5"
• Milford: 15.0"
• Fairfield: 15.0"
• Greenwich: 14.5"

Once again, my neighbor, Todd, who owns a snowplow, drove me to work. Without question, it was the worst ride to work in my 15-and-a-half years of doing morning weather at News 12 Connecticut. I have never seen I-95 as snow-covered and as dangerous as one year ago today. There were several tractor trailers jacknifed, and the backup was extensive on the Northbound side in Westport. The heavy, wet snow made driving extremely difficult.

I woke up to the sound of muffled thunder shortly after midnight, and when I went to look out the window, I saw nothing but white. The snow was falling heavily, and I knew the storm had intensified due to the gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. This was no ordinary snowstorm. Nearly a foot of snow had accumulated by midnight. When Todd arrived at my driveway at 2:20, I couldn't get the kitchen door open because the snow was piled so high. Just walking to his plow was a chore in itself. Here's another shot from Devon one year ago this morning.



Although there isn't any snow in the immediate or eight-day forecast, you'll need the umbrella later this afternoon. A storm system will bring rain for the evening commute, tonight, and tomorrow morning. Friday will be cloudy, windy, and much milder with rain tapering to showers by the afternoon. The weekend looks fair and colder. I'm glad this Winter isn't anything like last Winter.

Paul

Still No Comparison to Last Winter After Saturday Snowstorm

The first snowstorm of the Winter season brought over a half-foot of snow (6.2" at Sikorsky Memorial Airport) to much of southwestern Connecticut, but rain is expected this afternoon as temperatures climb into the low-to-mid 40s. The rain will gradually taper off late tonight, but readings will hold close to 40 degrees by daybreak.

The above photo of the Merritt Parkway in Norwalk was taken by viewer Ralph Fato of Norwalk during Saturday's storm. He reported 5.5" in Norwalk. The following two photos of the weekend Winter wonderland were take in Norwalk.

Thus far this month, we've received 7.4" of snow, which is just shy of the 8.5" normal for the entire month. However, last year at this time, we were buried under three feet of snow. The Winter weather actually started the day after Christmas, when a blizzard brought a foot of snow to Sikorsky Airport and up to a foot-and-a-half in many local communities.

However, last January was one for the ages. There was measured snow on 10 of the days, including a 15" snowstorm on January 12 and 15.5" from January 25 through January 27. Officially, three-and-a-half feet of snow (42") fell last January, bringing the five-week total to 54 inches. We haven't seen anything like that since the record Winter of 1995-96.

Interestingly, only 4.36" of snow fell last February, and the last measured snow of the Winter happened on February 27 with just a little more than a dusting across southwestern Connecticut. The jury is still out on this Winter, however, but there isn't any snow in the seven-day forecast. In fact, we may reach 50 degrees tomorrow, and the mercury will reach the upper 40s by the end of the week with more rain by Friday.

Paul

Thank you, Dr. Mel.

Thank you, Dr. Mel.

Perhaps no other person has influenced my life more than the iconic Connecticut meteorologist Mel Goldstein, who passed away yesterday at the age of 66 following a courageous 16-year battle with cancer. Dr. Mel was arguably the most respected weatherman in the Northeast, and he was a tremendous inspiration to me, professionally and personally, especially during his final years of life.

Dr. Mel first hired me, a 20-something youngster a few years removed from college, as an assistant at his Western Connecticut State University weathercenter in 1986. He knew about my interest in weather, and soon after I learned about his tremendous passion for all things meteorological, including his childlike excitement whenever a storm was brewing. Yes, that's a photo of Dr. Mel and me formulating a forecast at the WCSU weathercenter in 1986.

I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Dr. Mel for giving me the opportunity to learn from him and work for him. He always smiled and was ever the optimist, no matter what obstacles or challenges stood in his way. In fact, I wouldn't be where I am today without his help and support. He taught me to give my best every day, and I truly wanted to emulate him.

"Part of it was the fascination," Dr. Mel explained about his passion for weather. "The other part was the excitement." I worked a 10-hour shift every weekend at his weathercenter, and many times I remember Dr. Mel greeting me when I arrived for work and wishing me a safe drive home when I left. It seemed like he lived at the weathercenter, and he lived for weather.

"I never lost the interest of sharing this with other people," Dr. Mel once said. "I wanted to explain and tell the story as I understood the story to be." For years, he authored a daily weather column which appeared in the Hartford Courant. I was amazed at the variety of topics and wealth of knowledge he shared with his readers. Many times he would call me and dictate his article to me over the phone, and I would send it to the newspaper. Why do you think I blog as often as I do?

Dr. Mel was a respected professor at Western Connecticut State University, and he started the state's first degree program in meteorology. However, his influence on me extended well beyond the weathercenter. He helped me become the best teacher I could during my 10-plus years as a middle school teacher of Science. Engaging the students in hands-on experiments piqued their interest in what we were studying.

Dr. Mel's tremendous courage while battling multiple myeloma was an inspiration to many people. He kept working and doing what he loved 15 years after he was given 18 months to live. During that time, he showed us that the will to live and help others was stronger than his failing health. "There's nothing more satisfying than the feeling of helping other people," he said. "Being decent to people, being human, being understanding is far more important than anything else that we can do."

I often tell people if you love what you do, you'll never work a day in your life. I learned that from Dr. Mel. My thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Arlene, and his daughters, Laura and Melody. Thank you, Dr. Mel. We will miss you very much.

Paul

Weather Musings for mid January

The Vernal Equinox is exactly nine weeks from today. We are nearly one-third of the way through Winter. Major league pitchers and catchers report to Spring training in just over four weeks. Can Spring be far behind? Don't get too carried away, though. Although this morning is rather mild, it will turn blustery and much colder this afternoon, and some light snow is expected tomorrow night.

Ralph Fato took the following photos earlier this week from the Mianus River and Cove Park in Stamford. He wrote, "(There were) some cool formations at the river today. (It's) amazing with a mild winter that just a couple days below 30 degrees ice starts to become present. But, (this is) a far cry from how it looked last year this time."

If you're looking forward to Spring, the most optimistic sign in mid January is the increasing daylight. The Sun sets at 4:52 this afternoon, and by the end of the month Sunset will happen at 5:08. Compare that to one month ago when the Sun fell below the horizon at 4:23 prior to the Winter Solstice. We've gained nearly a half-hour of daylight in the late-afternoon since the first day of Winter. By February 10, the rate of increased daylight accelerates, and we gain about 2.5 minutes of Sun each day.

Climatologically, we've hit rock bottom as far as the normal average high and low temperatures are concerned. Based on 40 years of data, the average high and low temperatures for January 18 are 36 and 23 degrees, respectively. The numbers don't get lower than that. By the start of February, the averages begin building, and the average afternoon high temperature reaches 40 degrees by February 20.

Two other benchmarks of Winter are Groundhog Day, which is just two weeks away, and the season's official midpoint, February 4. Those of us counting the days until Spring are eagerly awaiting word from Punxatawney Phil or any of his "relatives" as to whether we'll have to endure six additional weeks of Winter. This Winter has been extremely quiet as far as snow is concerned. That certainly wasn't the case last year, though, when a whopping 60 inches of snow fell from late December through January.

Make sure to bring your coat and hat as you head out the door this morning. The mercury will fall from 50 degrees early this morning into the 30s this afternoon, and there will be a gusty wind out of the Northwest. Tonight will be mostly clear and much colder with lows of 12 to 20 degrees. Clouds increase tomorrow with flurries or light snow developing by evening, and it may make for a slippery commute Friday morning.

Paul

Wind Advisory Stirs Memories of Powerful Storm Six Years Ago This Weekend

An Artctic cold front will push through southwestern Connecticut today, creating strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 miles an hour. A Wind Advisory is in effect through midnight tonight, and power outages are likely once again. I can't help but think back to Tropical Storm Irene and the October Nor'easter and the sustained massive power outages which happened throughout Connecticut. However, six years ago this weekend, we experienced one of the most memorable storms in recent memory.

In fact, several storms brought heavy rain, accumulating snow, damaging winds, and dangerous icing to southwestern Connecticut over a six-day period which began on Saturday, January 14, 2006, and continued through the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. The wild weather ride actually didn't end until nearly a week later. Ironically, the dates are exactly the same as this year.

I recorded the following entries in my weather log, which I chart daily. Although most days are rather mundane, I highlighted these three days for obvious reasons. The weekend included record-high temperatures, record rainfall, tropical storm force winds, bitter cold wind chills below zero, icy roadways, and three-and-a-half inches of snow.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 --- A powerful Winter storm came barreling into the Northeast, producing record heavy rainfall of 1.59 inches, which broke the old mark of 0.91 inches, established in 1958. Strong southerly winds ahead of a well-defined cold front (51 miles-an-hour wind gust) brought down trees and power lines, and mild temperatures (56 degrees at 7:53 am) began a 36-hour stretch of severe weather across southwestern Connecticut.



I took each of these photos of the damage in my neighborhood from the storms. The first two show a truck and a car which were destroyed by falling trees in 50+ mile-an-hour wind gusts from January 14.



Sunday, January 15, 2006 --- Continued strong wind gusts (48 miles-an-hour) out of the North behind the front delivered much colder air (32 degree high and 11 degree low), and 3.5 inches of snow, creating a nightmare for local residents as power outages, below zero wind chills, and icy roadways punctuated the day's weather. The damage from the wind was extensive, as evidenced by the many trees which came tumbling down.



Monday, January 16, 2006 --- Bitter cold wind chills greeted early-morning risers as temperatures hovered between zero and ten degrees at daybreak. The high (29 degrees) and low (10) were well below normal for mid-January. Although the wind began to relax somewhat, we still had a peak wind gust of 31 miles-an-hour. United Illuminuating crews were out in full force attempting to restore power to many residents who were braving the ice, wind, and extreme cold for several days.



Personally, what I remember most from that weekend was losing power Saturday night, January 14, while my son and I were watching the New England Patriots' playoff game at Denver. We awoke to frigid, snowy, and icy conditions the following morning. However, fortunately for us, we were one of only a handful of families in our neighborhood to have power restored late the following morning. The majority of homes in our neighborhood remained without power for several days.

Oh, and by the way, the Patriots are playing Denver tomorrow evening, exactly six years to the day from that brutal Saturday night. Hopefully, this weekend we don't lose power, and the Patriots win their divisional playoff game this time around.

Paul

Local Weather Photos

Paige Palmer of Fairfield took this photo along Fairfield Beach early this afternoon during the time of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory was in effect due to a persistent East wind and tides running about one-and-a-half to two feet above normal.

Hilkka Schulz of Stamford sent this photo of a "perfect landing" which occurred a few days ago at Holly Pond in Stamford.

What great photos!

Paul

Blizzard Hit Region One Year Ago Today

One year ago today we began digging out of the second major snowstorm to strike southwestern Connecticut in just over two weeks. Heavy snow began just before midnight, Tuesday, January 11, 2011, and continued through much of the early morning, Wednesday, January 12, delivering between a foot-and-a-half and two feet of snow to southwestern Connecticut.

Snowplows were already on the roads as early as one o'clock one year ago this morning to keep up with the heavy snow, which was falling at the rate of one-to-two inches per hour between two and six o'clock in the morning. It certainly was one of the most difficult commutes to work I've ever experienced.

For the second time in as many weeks, I asked my neighbor to drive me to work. He has a snowplow, and I feel much more relaxed when he is in the driver's seat. I didn't have to worry about shoveling my driveway and cleaning the snow off my car during the height of the storm in the middle of the night. Although the drive was somewhat harrowing, we kept a steady pace at about 25 to 30 miles an hour along Interstate 95 from Fairfield to Milford.



The photo above is from Patty, Erik, and Emily in Fairfield. As predicted, the storm was a 12-hour event, and the heaviest snow began to exit the region from West-to-East between 8 and 9 o'clock. Snow totals as of mid-morning were quite impressive. Here is a rundown of snow totals from many communities across southwestern Connecticut:

• Weston: 24.5"
• Redding: 24.1"
• Wilton: 18.7"
• New Canaan: 18.0"
• Darien: 17.5"
• Milford: 18.0"
• Westport: 17.4"
• Bridgeport: 16.0"
• Greenwich: 15.5"

Unofficially, up to 30 inches of snow were recorded for the season at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, well above normal for this time of the year. Last Winter was just as memorable as the Winter of 1995-96 when 78 inches of snow fell in southwestern Connecticut. More than 100 inches fell in Danbury and Hartford, and it remains the snowiest Winter on record. In fact, a significant snowstorm happened during the first week of January in 1996, much like last January's event.

Although we're experiencing another stormy day, the conditions are much different than they were one year ago today. Moderate rain and gusty winds will be with us this morning before the rain tapers to showers by midday. High temperatures will reach close to 50 degrees. However, much colder air arrives tomorrow courtesy of a gusty wind. There will be snow squalls around, but nothing quite like last year.

Paul

Full Wolf Moon Howls Above January Night Sky

Clear to partly cloudy skies afforded me an opportunity to see the Full Wolf Moon on my drive to work early this morning. A light wind and temperatures in the 20s to close to 30 degrees caused widespread frost which glistened under the light of the Moon. The full Wolf Moon officially happened at 1:30 this morning.

Since the length of daylight is still relatively short, the full Moon will appear for nearly its longest duration of the year. In fact, today's moonrise happens at 5:28 p.m., and tomorrow's moonset is at 7:54 a.m. That means the Moon will be "out" for nearly 14-and-a-half hours. Sunrise this morning was at 7:18. During the Summer, when the Sun rises earlier and sets later, a full Moon isn't "out" nearly as long since the daylight is much longer.

The Moon rises about 30 to 70 minutes later each day, so the Moon is out during the daytime as often as it is out at night. As the Moon wanes, it becomes a half Moon and a crescent Moon on the way to a new Moon. The complete phase cycle is about 29.5 days average duration. The time in days counted from the time of New Moon is called the Moon's "age." Each complete cycle of phases is called a "lunation."



So how did the name of the January full Moon originate? Amid the cold and deep snows of midwinter, the wolf packs howled hungrily outside Indian villages. Thus, the name for this month's full Moon. Sometimes it was also referred to as the Old Moon or the Moon After Yule. Some called it the Full Snow Moon, but most tribes applied that name to the next Moon. The next three full Moons this year include the February 7th Snow Moon, March 8th Worm Moon, and April 6th Pink Moon.

As far as our weather is concerned, fair weather is expected through Wednesday before the next storm system delivers rain late Wednesday night into Thursday. Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs of 38 to 43 degrees. Tonight will become mostly cloudy with a flurry or two and a low of 26 to 32. Tomorrow will offer early clouds followed by developing sunshine with a high in the 40s.

Paul

This Weekend Marks Anniversary of Blizzard of 1996

The recent cold snap didn't last very long, due in no small part to the absence of any deep snow cover across much of the United States. In fact, we'll enjoy moderating temperatures this afternoon under developing sunshine and a high in the mid 40s. Tomorrow will be even warmer under a mix of sun and clouds with a high near 50. There are no major storms expected through the middle of next week.

It was quite different 16 years ago, though. Did you know that tomorrow marks the anniversary of The Blizzard of 1996? That snowstorm still ranks as one of the most memorable in my nearly-17 years of providing the morning weather forecasts at News 12 Connecticut. In fact, it was one of only two times I stayed the night and slept in the weathercenter due to the heavy snow and strong, gusty winds.

The storm actually started late-morning, Sunday, January 7, as light snow overspread the entire Northeast. The snow gradually became heavier through the afternoon, and by evening, roads were just about impassable due to the rapid accumulation. By the time the storm began moving away the following day, nearly two feet of snow blanketed much of southwestern Connecticut.

The two-day snow total at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Statford was 15 inches, including seven inches on January 7 and eight on January 8. That eclipsed the snow total of the so-called March 13, 1993 "Storm of the Century," which was 10.8 inches. Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks received 18.2 inches, just shy of the 21-inch record snowfall at the time, but more than the 14.8 inches just three years earlier.

Central Park in New York City recorded 20.2 inches of snow, making it the third highest snowfall at the time. Staten Island measured more than 27 inches of snow, and  LaGuardia International Airport recorded 24 inches, which exceeded the normal for the entire season of 22.6 inches.

An Arctic air mass covered New England as a massive storm developed over Virginia. The storm was actually energized by a 60-degree surface temperature contrast across western Montana which propelled a 175-mile-an-hour wind in the jet stream southward into the Plains causing the storm to form. This storm eventually brought the heavy snow from western North Carolina to southern New England.

Incredibly, the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains from northern Virginia to Pennsylvania measured more than three feet of snow. The following map shows just how impressive the storm was. Southwestern Connecticut fell within the 15 to 20 inch range as far as total snow accumulations, with the heaviest amounts of 30 inches across southeastern Pennsylvania. The lightest amounts, oddly, fell well to the North.



It's hard to believe that 16 years have passed since the January blizzard of 1996. There aren't any worries about significant snow or Arctic cold over the next few days. This weekend will be quite nice for this time of the year, with a slight cool down by Sunday. The next storm threat will happen Wednesday night into Thursday with the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds. Let's worry about that next week. Have a good weekend.

Paul

Earth Closest to Sun on Coldest Morning of the Season

Even though this morning's low temperatures were the coldest readings since last February 4, the early Winter is the time of the year when the Earth is nearest to the Sun. In fact, Tuesday afternoon at 2 o'clock EST, when the temperature was only in the 20s and there was a gusty wind out of the Northwest, the Earth was closer to the Sun than at any other time in 2012. This is when the Earth is at perihelion.

Since last July, the Earth has been falling ever closer to the Sun. Every moment since then, our planet has edged closer to the nearest star in the universe. The Earth’s orbit around the Sun is not a perfect circle. It’s actually an ellipse, so sometimes we’re closer to the Sun, and sometimes farther away. Various factors change the exact date and time every year, but aphelion (when we’re farthest from the Sun) happens in July, and perihelion (when we’re closest) in January.


At perihelion, our planet is about 91 million miles from the Sun. It moves outward to about 95 million miles from the Sun at aphelion. So, the Earth is about three percent farther from the Sun at aphelion than it is at perihelion. Naturally, some people have the mistaken impression that our seasons are caused by the changes in Earth's distance from the Sun, but this is not the case.

The temperatures and the seasons are not affected by the proximity of the Earth to the Sun or even the rotation of the planet on its axis. Rather, it is the tilt of the Earth that determines the climate. When it is at perihelion in January, the Earth is tilted away from the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere, and the sunlight is not "getting a direct hit" on the Earth's atmosphere. However, when it is at aphelion in July, the Earth is tilted toward the Sun.

So, as you bundle up and head outside on the second day back to work and school for many people after a long holiday break, take comfort in the fact that the Earth is closer to the Sun today than it is in the middle of Summer. I'm sure that's of little consolation, though, with a daybreak temperature close to 10 degrees and temperatures only climbing into the mid-to-upper 20s this afternoon. Remember, though, it's the thought that counts.

Paul