Drama Over Tropical Storm Sandy Continues to Unfold

The drama of Tropical Storm Sandy continues to unfold this week. The big question is how much of an effect the storm will have on southwestern Connecticut late this weekend into the start of next week. The European model is suggesting a huge impact on southwestern Connecticut. Once the storm passes over Cuba, we'll have a much better idea as to where it is headed. A hurricane or tropical storm in mid-to-late October is extremely rare. However, if the storm does strike, it would occur on the one-year anniversary of last October's memorable Nor'easter.

The various computer models for early next week continue to show Tropical Storm "Sandy" moving north out of the Caribbean, while an upper level trough of low pressure swings eastward from the Midwest. There is a decent consensus that the trough will interact with "Sandy" and will continue to support its northward movement. However, the exact position of these steering features will ultimately determine whether the storm impacts the Eastern United States or stays chiefly out to sea.

So the range of possibilities is still anywhere from "no impact" (GFS model) to a very significant impact (European and Canadian models). But an extremely unusual upper-air pattern and storm track would be required for the worse-case scenario of heavy rain and winds. So, we are still at the "wait and see" stage for this potential system, which again could have a minimal impact or a significant impact or something in between.

Joe Rao, the meteorologist at News 12 Westchester, wrote, "Actually I have come up with an analog, but it involves a Winter set-up: The Blizzard of February 6 &7, 1978. Those of us "old timers" will remember that on Monday morning, February 6, 1978, a low pressure system was positioned 175 miles east of Elizabeth City, North Carolina. It would have passed harmlessly out to sea well to our south, except there was a rapidly digging shortwave cutting across the Great Lakes that ultimately captured and intensified the offshore low before the morning was over, literally dragging it back toward the mainland on a highly anomalous northwest trajectory (sound familiar?).

"Eventually, the shortwave and the surface low became 'vertically stacked' south of Long Island, where the storm took 24-hours to perform a small 'loop-de-loop' before finally moving on its way late on February 7. Parts of Long Island and southern New England were buried with three to four feet of snow. Tropical cyclones that adversely affect the Northeast US usually move either on southwest-to-northeast or south-to-north paths; but I don't ever remember a tropical system coming at us on a southeast to northwest track."  

At any rate, it should be a very interesting couple of days ahead. As for the short-term forecast, today will be mostly cloudy and cool with light sprinkles or a few light showers and a high temperature in the lower 60s. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a low of 44 to 52 degrees. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of afternoon sun and a high in the lower 60s. Friday and Saturday look fine. But the big question mark occurs later Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned.

Paul