Rainy Pattern Keeps Local Reservoir Levels at or Near Capacity

More than a half-inch of rain fell yesterday, bringing the monthly total to well over five inches. The rainy pattern has persisted for most of May, keeping local reservoir levels at or near capacity. Officially, we've received 5.26" of rain this month, well above the 2.99" normal through yesterday. The yearly precipitation total (22.61") is nearly five inches above normal (17.78").

So, how are the local reservoirs doing? The latest report issued by the Connecticut Department of Public Health, shows levels above normal for most of the state's reservoirs. Aquarion Water Company of Connecticut reports that the Greenwich system is at 99.5% of capacity, which is 102% of normal. The Stamford and Norwalk systems are at 100% of capacity, putting Stamford at 106% of normal and Norwalk at  101% of normal.

The following bar graph illustrates that reservoir capacity levels statewide are at their highest point in more than a year. The levels were at their lowest point in September and October last year when they fell below 80 percent capacity. The current levels for each month are shaded in blue, while historical levels are indicated in purple.

 
Monday's rain marked the 10th wet day this month. In fact, eight of the last ten days have featured measured rain, including 2.35" on May 18, 1.26" on May 17, and nearly a half-inch on May 4 and May 14. Since the start of meteorological Spring --- March 1 --- we've seen over a foot of rain (13.50"), nearly two-and-a-half inches above the 11.13" normal through today. In case you're wondering, 2.74" fell last May.

Today will be a warmer and more humid day with a chance of showers or thunderstorms developing later this afternoon as high temperatures reach into the 70s. Tonight will be cloudy and mild with early showers or storms and lows of 58 to 63. Tomorrow and Thursday will be the best days of the week under mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to close to 60 degrees. Scattered storms are likely Friday through Sunday.

Paul 

Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts in 11 days, and it will be a busy one if this year's predictions are accurate. Federal forecasters announced yesterday that they expect three-to-six major hurricanes during what they say should be an above-average Atlantic storm season. Thankfully, no major hurricane has made landfall in the United States during the last five years, but forecasters warned Atlantic and Gulf coast residents their luck could run out this year.

You may recall that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was well above average, with the most number of named storms since 2005. There were 19 named storms, which tied the 1995 and 1887 Atlantic hurricane seasons for the third largest number of named storms. It also featured 12 hurricanes, which tied the 1969 season for the second largest number of hurricanes. 

As for this year, as many as 18 named tropical storms may develop during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season which begins June 1. That's the word from forecasters at the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. Six-to-10 of those storms could strengthen into hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three-to-six of those could become major hurricanes, with maximum winds of 111 miles per hour or more. 

The 2011 season was not expected to be as extreme, since ocean temperatures are only two degrees warmer than normal. Last year, the ocean temperature was four degrees warmer. Also, a Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon known as “La Nina’’ was expected to dissipate early in the Summer before the season’s peak, which is typically from August to October.

The American Red Cross says families can take steps now to create an emergency plan. "This is an ideal time to get a disaster supply kit ready, make an evacuation plan with your family, and get information on what to do during a hurricane," said Charley Shimanski, senior vice president of Red Cross Disaster Services. "It's also the right time to learn how to locate a shelter, and new technology is making it even easier to do that."

Short-term, our weekend weather looks fairly good, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. However, keep an eye to the sky later this afternoon for a possible strong thunderstorm, especially if any sunshine breaks through to stir up the atmosphere. Today's high will reach the mid 60s along the coast and 70 degrees or better inland. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high of 72, and fair and cooler weather is expected Sunday.

Have a good weekend.

Paul 

Today Marks 15th Anniversary of Warmest Spring Day on Record

Today marks the 15th anniversary of the warmest May day on record. The mercury soared to 97 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on Monday, May 20, 1996, nearly 30 degrees higher than the average high temperature for the date. In fact, only one other Spring day has been as warm, and that happened on June 9 of 2008. What made the record high of 1996 so memorable was that it happened just 40 days after nearly a foot of snow capped the snowiest Winter on record, and just days after much colder-than-normal temperatures.

“Just over a week ago, the climate got rewound to Winter,” wrote N. R. Kleinfield of The New York Times in an article dated May 21, 1996. “Six inches of snow coated parts of upstate New York (as if the year required more snow). In the city last week, the high temperature dipped to the 50s. Spring, you might have noticed, either got lost or just forgot to come. Then came yesterday (May 20, 1996). It all got fast-forwarded to August. “Bathing suits instead of ski parkas,” he continued.

“Turn off the heater and turn up the air-conditioner. What’s going on? Is this Earth or is this Mars? People could be excused for being mystified, discombobulated, distraught, furious, dazed, crazed, tentative, dizzy and, of course, just plain really, really hot.” The temperature reached a record high of 96 degrees in Central Park, eclipsing the previous record of 91 set in 1959, and a new record was established in Newark, where it was 99 degrees. Incredibly, just over a week earlier, on the weekend of May 11 and 12, 1996, it snowed in upstate New York.

Remember, the first two-and-a-half weeks of May in 1996 were unseasonably chilly. The record heat and outages at two power plants, one in Westchester and one in upstate New York, reduced the electricity reserves of New York state’s power pool, leading Consolidated Edison to ask customers to curtail electricity consumption. With air-conditioners thrumming away, demand in New York City reached around 9,000 megawatts, well above the normal 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts for this time of year.

Twelve years later, a late Spring scorcher, which included another 97-degree Spring day, forced area schools to dismiss early and close in early June of 2008. Temperatures soared to 90 degrees or hotter on Sunday, June 8 (90 degrees), Monday, June 9 (97), and Tuesday, June 10 (96). The normal high temperature for the first week of June is 74 degrees. It’s the first time in recent memory that school systems shut down due to the oppressive heat.

It won't be nearly as hot this afternoon, but it will certainly be humid. There is a chance of a shower or stronger thunderstorm as the low pressure system which brought plenty of rain to the region continues to spin over the Northeast. High temperatures will hover close to 70 degrees. Another spot shower or storm is possible tomorrow, but the weekend weather will be much better than what we've experienced this week.

Paul

Second Straight Day of Record Rain Punctuates Dreary Week of Weather

This has been one of the dreariest weeks of weather in recent memory. Yesterday marked the fifth straight day with measured rain across southwestern Connecticut, and we haven't seen much of the Sun since last Friday. Unfortunately, the weather pattern responsible for this week's weather won't move away any time soon. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm are in the forecast the next two days with afternoon high temperatures into the 60s.

Officially, nearly two-and-a-half inches (2.35") of rain fell yesterday at Sikorsky Memorial Airport, marking the second straight day of record rain. Well over an inch (1.26") of rain was measured Tuesday, bringing the two-day total to more than three-and-a-half inches. The total amount of rain over the last five days (4.18") is greater than the normal rainfall (4.03") for the entire month, based on 40+ years of averages.
Take a look at the rain amounts from each of the last five days:

• Saturday: 0.45"
• Sunday: 0.09"
• Monday: 0.03"
• Tuesday: 1.26"
• Wednesday: 2.35"

Not surprisingly, this year's precipitation total is well above normal. Since January 1, nearly two feet (22.01") of liquid precipitation has been measured, which is much greater than the 17.13" normal through today. Thus far this month, the rain gauge shows 4.66" of rain, nearly double the 2.34" normal through May 19. In addition, since the start of climatological Spring --- March 1 --- over a foot of rain (12.90") has fallen, and that's more than the 10.48" normal through the last 40 days.


I'm afraid the unsettled weather pattern will continue the next couple of days. Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with patchy fog and a few scattered showers. There may even be a strong thunderstorm this afternoon if any sunshine is able to break through the clouds. Tomorrow will be cloudy with a few showers and a possible storm with daytime highs in the 60s.

I'm sick of this weather!

Paul

This Week's Weather Will Affect How We Feel

A Flood Watch is in effect for southwestern Connecticut through tomorrow evening with the potential of two-to-four inches of rain possible by late Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Watch has been posted for late tonight as tides may run one-and-a-half to two feet above normal. The rain will gradually taper to showers by the end of the week, but flooding of low-lying areas, basements, and local roads is possible.

Let's face it, this week's weather will affect how we feel, for sure. I know it's affecting me. How do you feel this week? Tired? Lethargic? Sleepy? The rainy weather and raw East wind will affect you more than you think. There has been measured rain at Sikorsky Memorial Airport each of the last two days, and the next two days will be the wettest this week. Today's high temperatures will not make it out of the 50s. So, if you're feeling "out of it," you probably aren't alone.



According to the Web site Science Daily, “The positive impact warm, sunny weather can have on mental health and mood are real,” are the findings of a University of Michigan study. “It should not be surprising that weather and seasons affect human behavior, given that humans have evolved with seasonal and weather changes since the dawn of the species.”

Researchers found that pleasant weather improves mood, memory, broadens our creative ability and our openness to new information. “Being outside in pleasant weather really offers a way to re-set your mindset,” said Matthew Keller, the University of Michigan post-doctoral researcher who led the weather-related psychological study. “We found two important variables: how much time you spend outside and what the season is.”

Ten mood variables were related to eight weather variables in a multidimensional study on weather according to pubmed.org. Data was collected for 23 male subjects over 11 consecutive days. Mood variables included concentration, depression, sleepiness, optimism, and skepticism. The weather variables included hours of sunshine, precipitation, and temperature.

“Humidity, temperature, and hours of sunshine had the greatest effect on mood,” the study found. “High levels of humidity lowerered scores on concentration while increasing reports of sleepiness. Humidity was the most significant predictor in regression.” Our humidity will be extremely high all week long. Were you feeling tired or having trouble concentrating? The study adds that the implications for school and work performance are critical, and it highlights the importance of humidity as a weather variable.

We won't begin to see any improvement until this weekend. This may be one of the worst weeks of weather in recent memory. Fortunately, this weekend is looking much better under developing sunshine and milder temperatures. I don;t know about you, but I can't wait for the weekend. Until then, it wouldn't be a bad idea to take a long nap.

Paul

Walk for Wishes Hero Parade Takes Place Tomorrow at Jennings Beach in Fairfield

I was honored to accept an invitation as an honorary event chair and master of ceremonies for the annual Walk for Wishes and Hero Parade, sponsored by the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Connecticut, tomorrow morning at Jennings Beach in Fairfield. The event kicks off at 10 o'clock under mostly cloudy skies and a chance of a sprinkle or shower. The mission of the foundation is to grant the wishes of children with life-threatening medical conditions to enrich the human experience with hope, strength, and joy.

The 25th Anniversary Walk for Wishes and Hero Parade, which in the past has helped to grant countless wishes, will feature the annual walk with the "wish kids" past and present, accompanied by their "heroes," such as police officers, firefighters, doctors, teachers, and whomever the kids invite to walk with them to raise money for the foundation. Approximately 500 people, including me will take part in the walk. Following the walk is a beach and block party for the kids and their families with moon bounces, a disc jockey, face painting, and hula lessons on the beach.

"With your dedicated involvement in the community, to the local schools and kids, and being the fun and engaging weatherman you are, we could not think of anyone else to help us in our efforts," said Michael Dominick, the communications manager for the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Connecticut. "We would love to (have you) as an honorary event chair and help us to spread awareness of the event in Fairfield and surrounding areas."



Dominick has an exciting day planned for the participants. Before the walk, superheroes Batman and Riddler will arrive. Not surprisingly, a chase will ensue, during which the Riddler is captured by the Fairfield police and put into a police car. The walkers will warm up with yoga stretching exercises, and the disc jockey will play uptempo music to kick off the walk. Lunch will be served at 12 o'clock, and the fundraising awards will close the program.

Dominick added, "My brother was a wish kid way back in 1983, so I can speak from personal experience on just how magical the essence of a wish truly is. It gives kids something to look forward to when there's not a whole lot of wonderful things to look forward to, and it gives the entire family a chance to be just that again --- a family."

Paul