Full Sturgeon Moon Happens This Weekend

It was brighter than normal when I left my home shortly before 3 o'clock this morning. That's because crystal clear skies helped illuminate a nearly-full Moon. Ralph Fato, a regular contributor to our Facebook weather page, sent this photo of the Moon. He wrote, "Anyone catch the moon tonight? (It was) nice and bright. Here's a picture I took of it at 10 p.m. facing Southeast. (The) camera didnt capture the bright white light it was giving off, but (it's) still pretty cool to see up close."

The Full Sturgeon Moon happens this Saturday, August 13, at 2:57 p.m. EDT. We should get another spectacular view of the nearly-full Moon later tonight under clear skies and dry air. Temperatures will fall into the 50s inland and lower 60s along the shoreline by daybreak. The Moon rises at 7:06 EDT this evening, and it sets tomorrow morning at 5:51.

So, how did the August full Moon get its name? The fishing tribes are given credit for naming it, since sturgeon, a large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water, were most readily caught during this month. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because, as the Moon rises, it appears reddish through any sultry haze. It was also called the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon.

Thunder and lightning are quite frequent with Summer storms in August. So, this month’s full Moon also goes by the name of the Lightning Moon for the Summer thunderstorms. Other names given to the Moon in August are the Red Moon and the Dog Moon.

Full Moon names date back to the days of the Native Americans, in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

There are some changes to the weekend weather forecast. High pressure will hold through tomorrow, and a storm system which promises to bring moderate to possibly heavy rain won't arrive until late Sunday or Sunday night. The rain may be heavy through early Monday.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

The "Dog Days" of Summer Officially End Today

The oppressive heat and humidity we've experienced quite often this Summer will take a break over the next couple of days. We'll enjoy sunny skies, lower humidity, and seasonable temperatures through the start of this weekend as high pressure dominates our weather picture. And, today is a significant, albeit symbolic, date on the calendar if you're pining for more comfortable weather.

The Dog Days of Summer officially come to an end today. In case you’re wondering, the dog days last for 40 days, from July 3 to August 11. They are directly related to the brightest star in the night sky, Sirius, in the constellation Canis Major, or the big dog. Sirius is known as the Dog Star, and we see it clearly illuminating the night sky from early Autumn through early Spring.

However, during this time of the year, Sirius rises and sets with the Sun. During late July, Sirius is in “conjunction” with the Sun, and the ancients believed that its heat added to the heat of the Sun, creating a stretch of very hot, humid, and sultry weather. Actually, the conjunction of Sirius with the Sun varies slightly with latitude, and a gradual drifting of the constellations over time means that they are not in exactly the same place in the sky as they were in ancient Rome.

Although this is typically the warmest time of the year in southwestern Connecticut, the added heat is not due to the added radiation of a far-away star, regardless of how bright it is. The heat of Summertime in the Northern Hemisphere is a direct result of the Earth’s 23.5 degree tilt on its axis. Today's normal high temperature is 82 degrees, just one degree shy of the normal for late July.

You'll certainly want to get outside today and enjoy the sunny skies and drier air. It will be mostly sunny, seasonable, and less humid with a high temperature in the lower 80s, typical for early-to-mid August. Tonight will be clear and comfortable with a low of 52 to 62 degrees. Tomorrow will be sunny and delightful with a high of 80. The "Dog Days" are going out in style!

Paul

Summer Heat Taking Its Toll on Athletes

Lets' face it, this has been one of the warmest Summers in quite some time. The average monthly temperature has been well above normal for each of the last four months, and August is off to a much warmer-than-normal start. In fact, the average temperature this month is 78.2 degrees, nearly four degrees above the 74.4-degree normal.

The temperature climbed to 103 degrees on July 22, which tied the all-time record high for southwestern Connecticut, and the mercury reached 96 degrees the following day. The highest temperature this month was 92 degrees on August 2. The brutal Summer temperatures and extreme humidity have affected just about everybody, especially athletes.

At least two high school football players and one coach have died in just the last week due to complications from the extreme heat. There has also been a report of an adult runner in Kansas City who died due to heat stroke over the weekend. Athletes of all kinds are suffering more than ever this Summer due to the relentless hot and humid weather.

Dr. Douglas Casa from the University of Connecticut said that this last week was "the worst week in the last 35 years in terms of athlete deaths." Locally, scholastic athletes will report for practice later this month, and doctors are warning student athletes to be careful when practicing in the Summer heat.

According to CNN.com, there are no nationwide specific rules written to protect high school athletes from complications due to the hot weather. However, many school districts do put out some sort of guidelines to deal with the extreme conditions. Climatologically, August is the second hottest month of the year.

Athletes are encouraged to weigh themselves before and after each practice session. If a player's weight drops by more than three percent, dehydration is setting in. If it should drop by more than five percent, heat-related illness has begun. If you do need to practice outside or participate in strenuous exercises, do so in the early morning hours or later in the evening.

Although no extreme heat is expected over the course of the next week, daytime high temperatures will continue to hover close to the 81-degree normal for this time of the year. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and periods of rain are likely through midnight. Skies will gradually clear tomorrow, and great weather is expected Thursday and Friday.

Paul

View of Northern Lights Tonight is in Mother Nature's Hands

If Mother Nature cooperates, we could be in for a fantastic show of Northern Lights tonight. A major solar flare erupted at 11:57 p.m. EDT Wednesday night which propelled a cloud of subatomic particles directly toward the Earth. That's the word from good friend Joe Rao, News 12 Westchester meteorologist and astronomer.

Skies are expected to be partly cloudy this evening and mostly cloudy after midnight as the humidity level increases. Temperatures will hold in the mid-to-upper 60s by late tonight. I had lunch with Rao this past Wednesday while attending a media seminar at Cablevision's corporate headquarters in Bethpage, New York. I have always admired the passion he has for Science, particularly meteorology and astronomy.

Rao told me that analysts at the Space Weather Lab say the cloud of subatomic material should reach Earth sometime today. The impact on the Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level is high, and that means we might be treated to a nice display of the Northern Lights tonight.

Here's a view of the coronal mass ejection: http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/04aug11/cme_04aug11.gif?PHPSESSID=23sunmi35tu90un6vtis53hfd7.

According to Rao, as soon as it gets dark tonight, just scan the sky, especially toward the North. If there is an aurora in progress you'll know immediately because it can appear as bright moving rays or curtains waving in a breeze. Obviously, the farther away you can get from bright city lights, the better your chances of seeing any activity. The colors are usually whitish, but aquamarine and reds can also appear as well.

However, Rao cautions that we might see nothing more than an amorphous band of light sitting just above the northern horizon. It all depends on how energetic the cloud of particles shot from the Sun interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. These particles do not head directly for the Earth's magnetic poles. They actually hit the radiation belts which encircle the Earth near the equator.

Let's hope Mother Nature gives us this unique opportunity. I know I'll be watching.

Paul

Hurricane Forecast Team Sticks to Earlier Prediction

Longtime area residents will no doubt remember the two hurricanes which struck southwestern Connecticut with great fury 56 years ago this month. Hurricane Connie soaked New England with torrential rains on August 12 and 13, 1955. Then, just five days later, Tropical Storm Diane followed suit creating massive flooding not seen since the 1930s.

While the two hurricanes affected the entire Atlantic coast, Connecticut suffered the most damage. For example, of the 180 lives that were lost, 77 were in Connecticut. Of the 680 million dollars in property damage, over 350 million dollars occurred in Connecticut. Over 200 dams in New England suffered partial to total failure. This is a photo of Winsted, virtually devastated by the flood.

We've been extremely fortunate in recent years with respect to hurricanes and tropical weather, but that doesn't mean we should let our guard down at all. The well-respected forecast team at Colorado State University stuck to its earlier seasonal hurricane forecasts yesterday, calling for 16 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major storms packing winds of more than 110 miles per hour.

The CSU team’s leaders, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, predict that this season be similar to hurricane seasons in 1952, 1966, 2005, and 2008. The team points to a warm sea surface temperature and unusually low sea-level pressure in the tropical Atlantic among the reasons Florida could see a very active hurricane season.

They also point to Pacific Ocean conditions that are neutral between El Nino and La Nino. El Ninos is a warmer-than- usual pattern in the Pacific that can create winds that shear apart hurricanes before they form. La Nina — a cooler than usual pattern — and neutral conditions have no such effect.

For the remainder of the season, Klotzbach also recalculated probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast:

•A 70 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the United States coastline;

•A 46 percent chance for the East Coast, including Florida. The long-term average for the last century is 31 percent;

•A 45 percent chance for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle West to Brownsville. The full-season average for the last century is 30 percent.

Many people still remember Hurricane Gloria in September of 1985, but the combination of Connie and Diane 30 years earlier yielded rainfall totals close to 25 inches in some areas, resulting in unprecedented flooding. Nearly all of the major rivers in the lower Connecticut Valley exceeded flood stage. Some rivers rose more than 20 feet over their banks. Let's hope we never see that again.

For now, though, we continue to watch Tropical Storm Emily, which showed continued signs of disorganization and slowed to dump torrential rains on Hispaniola. Emily's forecast track still shows the storm will regroup and brush past South Florida, with the latest track a bit further east than had been feared Wednesday.

Paul

Lightning Over the Atlantic Video

Ralph Fato of Norwalk sent the following video to me. He wrote, "Here’s a five minute edited video of lightning over the Atlantic Ocean Monday night (August 1). I caught over 15 bolts on camera. It was incredible to watch. Winds were sustained around 15-20 mph at one point on the beach."

He used a Kodak z990 to capture the video. Click the 720 HD option.



Paul