Active Atlantic Tropical Season & Cold, Snowy Winter in the Cards?

There are many variables and factors to consider when making a long-range forecast as it pertains to seasonal weather and tropical activity. One of the more important factors to consider is the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a large-scale fluctuation in atmospheric pressure between the subtropical high pressure system located near the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean and the sub-polar low pressure system near Iceland.

The surface pressure drives surface winds and Wintertime storms from West-to-East across the North Atlantic, ultimately affecting weather and climate from New England to Western Europe, as far eastward as central Siberia and the Eastern Mediterranean, and southward to Africa. In case you're wondering, we broke the record for the deepest negative NAO for the month of June since 1950. The negative phase of the NAO increases sea surface temperature due to decreased evaporational cooling. This chart was provided by Ralph Fato. Take a look:

So, why is this important? When the NAO Index is in its negative phase, the Tropical Atlantic and Gulf Coast have an increased number of strong hurricanes, northern Europe is drier, and Mediterranean countries have increased precipitation. When the NAO is positive phase, the northeastern United States sees an increase in temperature and a decrease in snow days, the central U. S. has increased precipitation, the North Sea has an increase in storms, and Northern Europe has warmer temperatures and increased precipitation.

The negative NAO typically enhances tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic due to weaker trade winds, while a positive NAO typically suppresses tropical cyclone activity due to stronger than normal trade winds that prevent the disturbance from attaining a well-defined center. The positive NAO correlates with above average Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), which is unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis. A negative NAO correlates with below average MSLP, which enhances tropical cyclogenesis.

As far as the long-range forecast is concerned, the negative NAO index phase results in fewer and weaker Winter storms crossing on a more West-to-East pathway. They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe. The East Coast of the United States experiences more cold air outbreaks and snowy weather conditions.

As for the long-term, will there be more tropical activity in the Atlantic this season? Are we in for a Winter similar to the one two years ago? The NAO suggests we may very well be. As for the short-term forecast, another sunny and warm day is ahead with afternoon temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Tonight will be mostly clear and mild with lows in the 60s. The weekend will become quite warm and more humid with showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Daytime highs will reach well into the 80s.

 Paul

Use Caution When Exercising Outdoors in Summer Heat

This has been an especially warm July. Thus far this month, the average temperature in southwestern Connecticut is 79.1 degrees, which is a whopping 5.6 degrees above normal. Daytime high temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s the rest of the week and may reach 90 degrees by the weekend. If you spend any amount of time outside exercising during the Summer, use common sense.

The first rule of thumb, naturally, is to avoid any strenuous exercise during the hottest part of the day. That's generally between 11 o'clock in the morning through 3 o'clock in the afternoon when the Sun's rays are the hottest. The early morning and evening hours are the best time to exercise outside. Obviously, you'll want to avoid any outdoor exercise when there is an Air Quality Alert or the air pollution is especially high.

When you exercise in the Summer heat you need to protect your body from overheating. Be sure to take precautions for a safe summer workout. Exercising outdoors in the Summer heat can be dangerous, or even fatal, to your health if you don’t use good judgment. Of course, the logical alternative is to work out indoors in cool temperatures. But if you must exercise in the heat, here are some guidelines, courtesy of suite101.com.

Although keeping hydrated is important regardless of the temperature, it’s even more crucial in the hot Summer months. Besides drinking a basic requirement (at least six eight-ounce glasses) of water daily, include sports drinks both before and after a workout. Staying hydrated is especially critical if you plan to exercise for an extended period. Runners should always carry a water pack. Failing to do so could put you in jeopardy of circulatory failure.

As for clothing, wear light fabrics such as synthetics and silks that don’t retain heat, as well as release moisture from your body for good airflow. As for colors, select clothes with light colors, avoiding darks. Select fabrics that "breathe," allowing moisture to be released from your body. Not only do hats shield your skin from the sun, but they also shield the sun from heating up the blood vessels lining your scalp. When wearing a hat in the heat, occasionally take it off to let the heat escape.

If your choice of exercise is a sport such as tennis, be sure to take short, frequent breaks. By doing so, you allow your body parts that are working hard to rest, reducing your odds of injury. Also, pay close attention to your body. For example, if you’re in the middle of a run and your body tells you to rest, then take a break.

When you feel the least bit faint or nauseous --- which could be red lights for heat exhaustion --- stop exercising. Failure to not rest in the shade and hydrate until you recover could result in a heat stroke or even worse conditions. If you work out for more than an hour, be sure to have some carbohydrates handy to eat because carbs are quickly metabolized in the heat. Some sports drinks also contain carbs.

Use precaution and common sense when exercising in the water. A pool or lake may cool you off on a hot Summer day. But you can still get dehydrated and overheated. If you’re planning a rigorous water workout, check the water temperature (75 to 78 degrees Farenheit is ideal). A pool temperature higher than 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius) is too hot and not suitable for a workout. Take breaks, drinking sufficient water to make sure you stay hydrated.

Paul

Deadly & Destructive Tornadoes Struck Connecticut 23 Years Ago Today

What a difference a week makes. The oppressive humidity and prolonged hot stretch of weather has been replaced with drier and more seasonable temperatures across southwestern Connecticut. The daily high temperature climbed to at least 88 degrees seven of the first eight days this month, and the mercury topped 90 degrees three times. Generally fair weather is expected through the end of the week before more humid air arrives this coming weekend.

However, our weather wasn't nearly as quiet on this date in 1989. One of the most unforgettable weather days happened 23 years ago today when a series of deadly and destructive tornadoes hit Connecticut on the afternoon of July 10, 1989. I was the early morning forecaster at the Western Connecticut State University weathercenter in Danbury back then. Although I predicted strong to severe thunderstorms for the region that afternoon, I never imagined the magnitude of the tornadoes which would strike Connecticut later that day.

I remember the storms began early that morning in upstate New York. A tornado hit Ogdensburg just before daybreak, injuring one person. One inch hail and wind gusts of over 50 miles an hour were a telltale sign that the approaching frontal boundary meant business. Many reports of wind damage in New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts occurred before noon.

Unfortunately, the timing of the storm had it moving into western Connecticut by the afternoon hours, when the atmosphere is most volatile due to the heating of the Sun. By midafternoon, as the atmosphere continued to heat up and the front moved eastward, the tornadoes developed. The first tornado, which may actually have been three distinctly separate tornadoes, started in the Northwest community of Cornwall, and leveled the Cathedral Pines forest.

The tornado continued south-southeast through Milton, leveling hundreds of trees and virtually destroying the village of Bantam before dissipating. A 12-year-old girl, who was on a campout with family and friends, was killed by falling trees in Black Rock State Park. Not much later, another tornado touched down in Watertown, passing through Oakville and northern Waterbury . That either damaged or destroyed over 150 homes and injured 70 people.



However, the most destructive tornado occurred in Hamden by late-afternoon. The path was only about five miles long, and it stopped just short of New Haven. The tornado destroyed almost 400 structures, and even cars were tossed into the air. Rows of houses and an industrial park were flattened as a result of the tornado. The storm was so strong that much of the area was without power for at least a week, and there were some trees still being cleared months later. The adjacent photo shows some of the damage in Hamden. This video was made for the Hamden Fire Department's Training Division the day after the tornado struck.



The powerful F-4 tornado which struck Hamden caused $100 million in damage and another $20 million in the Greater New Haven area. Forty people were injured in the tornado. After the tornado dissipated, a wind gust of 80 miles an hour was reported in New Haven. At about that time, another tornado struck Mount Carmel, tearing the roof off a condominium and injuring five people.

Of course, 23 years ago we didn't have the technology we do today, but I was still able to monitor the radar by the time I arrived home early in the afternoon. Remember, the Internet, News 12 Traffic and Weather, and access to instant local weather coverage didn't exist in those days. By the evening, the violent weather had ended, skies were clearing, and the damage had been done. It was certainly a day I'll never forget.

Paul

Lawn Care Tips During July Heat

How is your lawn doing? My lawn is beginning to feel the effects of the strong July sunshine and hot weather over the past several days. Thursday's high temperature climbed to 91 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, and a potential heat wave will culminate tomorrow when a Heat Advisory will be in effect for the afternoon hours. The average temperature this month is a whopping 6.3 degrees above normal.

The brown spots and dried-out grass are becoming more widespread on my lawn. According to my weather record book, we've had just one day of measured rain this month, and eight of the last ten days have been dry. The only rain in the extended forecast will happen when a cold front approaches late tomorrow and Saturday night, triggering thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe.

I've been watering the lawn every day for the last week. However, you may wonder when is the best time to water the lawn? According to allaboutlawns.com, the best time to turn on your sprinkler is about 5 o'clock in the morning. Why? "Early morning watering is best due to the lack of evaporation that takes place, low winds that can blow you lawn dry, high humidity, and morning dew that adds to the moisture.

"Early morning watering helps to prevent lawn diseases that can be caused by watering at night because it gives your lawn time to dry by night fall. Obviously, this can be best accomplished with a sprinkler system, unless you just can't sleep, especially during the Summer months."

Here's another tip. Try watering a day before you plan on mowing your lawn if you dislike the browning that forms on the tips of the grass afterwards. This will allow your lawn to recover from the cutting and help it to look nicer as a result. Did you know that during the hottest Summer months, the surface of your closely cropped lawn can easily climb two dozen degrees above the outdoor air temperature? Heat is a killer.

So is moisture loss, which occurs when the lawn is cut too frequently during high temperatures. Heat-stressed, dry lawns are extremely susceptible to insects, spotting, weeds, and root disease as they try to heal from literally being scalped. Many of my neighbors hire lawn cutters who appear at the same time every week to mow the lawns, whether they need it or not. I don't think I'll cut my lawn this weekend. It just doesn't need it.

According to allaboutlawns.com, "It's important to realize that mowing actually creates a routine lawn injury. You can minimize the damage by using sharp blades and mowing in cooler morning or evening hours, but only when the lawn is dry. In the Summer months, you may have to mow more frequently, but always mow at a higher cut. If you're cutting more than 1/3 of the total height of the grass, you're scalping it.

Take care when mowing your lawn this Summer. Properly mowed lawns retain moisture, fostering deeper root growth, and the healthy blades of grass produce more of the nutrients necessary for your lawn to thrive in difficult conditions. So, even in the driest and warmest time of the year, it is possible to keep your lawn watered regularly and cut when needed.

Paul

Despite Heat, the Earth is Farthest from the Sun Today

Despite a heat wave roasting parts of the United States and forecast high temperatures close to 90 degrees across southwestern Connecticut, our planet is actually at its farthest point from the Sun today. According to the U. S. Naval Observatory, the Earth reached a point in its orbit called "aphelion" at 12 o'clock EDT this morning. The Earth's aphelion is the point where it is the farthest from the Sun than at any time during the year.

The Earth is typically about 93 million miles from the Sun. However, because our planet's orbit is not a perfect circle but an ellipse, it has a farthest point and a closest point to the Sun. In case you're wondering, the Earth's closest approach to the Sun is called perihelion, and that occurs in early January. The Earth is exactly 3,104,641 miles (or 3.28 percent) farther from the Sun than at its closest approach. The Earth actually receives about seven percent less heat at its aphelion than at its closest approach, according to researchers.

Although the date for both will vary from year to year, the Earth will always be closest to the Sun in early January and the farthest away in early July. Not surprisingly, that comes as a surprise to most people. At perihelion, our planet is about 91 million miles from the Sun. It moves outward to about 95 million miles from the Sun at aphelion. Naturally, some people have the mistaken impression that our seasons are caused by the changes in Earth's distance from the Sun, but this is not the case.

The temperatures and the seasons are not affected by the proximity of the Earth to the Sun or even the rotation of the planet on its axis. Rather, it is the tilt of the Earth that determines the climate. When it is at perihelion in January, the Earth is tilted away from the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere, and the sunlight is not "getting a direct hit" on the Earth's atmosphere. However, when it is at aphelion in July, the Earth is tilted toward the Sun.

Officially, at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, the high and low temperatures yesterday, Independence Day, were 88 and 72 degrees, respectively, for an average of 80 degrees. That's seven degrees above normal. The record high temperature for today --- when the Earth is farthest from the Sun --- is 100 degrees, established in 1999. The normal high and low temperatures for this date are 82 and 65 degrees, respectively.

So, as you cool off at the pool, beach, or by the air conditioner today, take comfort in the fact that our planet is farther from the Sun today than at any other day of the year. Today will be mostly sunny, hot, and turning less humid with a high temperature of 86 to 91 degrees. Hot weather will continue through the start of the weekend before a cold front arrives Saturday night and early Sunday, bringing more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Paul

"Dog Days" of Summer Begin Today

The “Dog Days” of Summer officially arrive today. No, that’s not because I relented and turned on the air conditioners. Most people casually refer to the "Dog Days" as a period of hot and humid weather. But did you know that the dog days are a 40-day period which last from early July through mid-August?

The dog days of Summer run from July 3 through August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere and have to do with the star Sirius, known as “the dog star.” Sirius is the brightest star in the Northern Hemisphere other than the Sun, and it is found in the constellation Canis Major, thus the name “dog star.”

In the Summer, Sirius rises and sets with the Sun. During late July, Sirius is in “conjunction” with the Sun. The ancients believed that its heat added to the heat of the Sun, creating a stretch of hot and sultry weather. They named this period of time, from 20 days before the conjunction to 20 days after, the “dog days” after the dog star.

In ancient times, when the night sky was unobscured by artificial lights and smog, different groups of peoples in different parts of the world drew images in the sky by “connecting the dots” of stars. The images drawn were dependent upon the culture.

The Chinese saw different images than the Native Americans, who saw different pictures than the Europeans. These star pictures are now called constellations, and the constellations that are now mapped out in the sky come from our European ancestors.

They saw images of bears (Ursa Major and Ursa Minor), twins (Gemini), a bull (Taurus), and others, including dogs (Canis Major and Canis Minor). The brightest of the stars in Canis Major (the big dog) is Sirius. The star can be seen prominently in the Winter in the Northern Hemisphere, adjacent to Orion the Hunter.
The conjunction of Sirius with the Sun varies somewhat with latitude. Also, the constellations today are not in exactly the same place in the sky as they were in ancient Rome. Although we are in the middle of the dog days of Summer right now, the heat is not due to the added radiation from a far-away star, regardless of its brightness. The heat of Summer is a direct result of the earth’s 23.5 degree tilt on its axis, meaning the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun during the Summer.

So, the "Dog Days" of Summer have officially arrived as of today. We'll have a warm and dry day ahead with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight and early tomorrow before another round arrives tomorrow afternoon. Daytime high temperatures will hold in the 80s through the rest of the week and the weekend.

Happy Dog Days!


Paul