Classic Nor'easter Brings Record-Breaking Snow to Region

Just nine days after Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of southwestern Connecticut, especially shoreline communities, a classic Nor'easter brought gusty winds, cold temperatures, and record-breaking snow to southwestern Connecticut. The snow began falling late yesterday morning as the storm exploded, causing bands of moderate-to-heavy snow to fall the rest of the day and through the night.

Officially, Sikorsky Memorial Airport recorded 5.4 inches of snow yesterday, which was a record for the date and the second snowiest November day on record. More than a half-foot of snow (6.2 inches) fell on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 23, 1989. Three inches of snow fell as recently as November 27, 2002, but nothing quite like what we experienced over the last 24 hours. The photos are courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk.

Here are some snowfall totals from across southwestern Connecticut:

• Monroe: 11.5"
• Danbury: 9.9"
• Bridgeport: 8.0"
• Ridgefield: 8.0"
• Darien: 7.9"
• Greenwich: 6.0"
• Trumbull: 6.0"
• New Canaan: 6.0"
• Norwalk: 5.8"
• Stamford: 5.3"

A strong North wind continued to pull colder air into much of New England throughout the day. Yesterday's high temperature of 39 degrees happened at 10:21 a.m. By mid-afternoon, the mercury had dropped into the low-to-mid 30s, causing the precipitation to fall as heavy wet snow. The low temperature fell to 31 degrees at 8:24 p.m. The normal high and low temperatures for November 7 are 56 and 40 degrees, respectively. Wednesday's average temperature of 35 degrees was 13 degrees colder than the normal average of 48.

Initially, it appeared the storm would be more of a wind-maker rather than a snow-maker, as computer models pushed the center of the storm farther to the East. However, the winds never reached the 50-mph forecast gusts which were anticipated. The highest wind gust at Sikorsky Airport was 36 miles per hour out of the North, and the highest wind speed was 29 miles an hour. The average wind speed yesterday was 19.2 miles an hour.

Fortunately, our weather picture will improve over the next couple of days, and the Veteran's Day holiday weekend is shaping up to be mostly sunny and warmer. The rest of today will be cloudy, breezy, and chilly with a high of 44 degrees. Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold with lows of 27 to 32. Tomorrow will be sunny and milder with a high near 50. Plenty of sunshine is expected Sunday & Monday with daytime highs into the lower 60s each afternoon.

Paul

Weather Plays a Role in Election Outcomes

Election Day is tomorrow. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high temperature in the middle 40s. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. By tomorrow night we'll know who the next President, United States Senator, and local legislators will be. There are many other races on the ballot, too. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut Tuesday evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul

Hurricane Sandy Satellite Loop

This is the GOES satellite loop for Hurricane Sandy from the Caribbean to Canada from October 23 to November 3.

Paul

November by the Numbers

Hurricane Sandy is long gone, but its effects will be felt for quite some time. Many people are still without power today, including those in homes and businesses throughout southwestern Connecticut. Now, it's time to look ahead to November and how the month shapes up climatologically. Don't forget to "fall back" this weekend. Standard Time begins this coming Sunday morning, November 4, at 2 o'clock.

Snow is certainly not out of the question during this month. Perhaps the most memorable Thanksgiving Day in recent memory occured in 1989 when over a half-foot of snow fell that day. The snow began falling shortly after midnight, and by the time it ended late Thanksgiving afternoon, it was the biggest single-day snow event in November.

Snow also fell twice in 1995, including 2.4 inches on November 29 of that year. That was the snowiest Winter on record across southwestern Connecticut. Another "snowstorm" of note happened on November 6 and 7 of 1953 when a combined 5.4 inches fell. However, the average snow for the month is only 0.6 inches.

November can also be a wet month, too. The most precipitation in November occured in 1972 when 10.22 inches were recorded. There have also been some impressive single-day totals, including 3.12" (Nov. 2, 1954), 3.04" (1972), and 2.91" (Nov. 10, 1948). The average precipitation for the month is 3.81 inches, ranking it fourth behind March, May, and April as the wettest months of the year. The driest November happened 36 years ago when only 0.36" fell in 1976.

We begin to experience a dramatic decline in average temperatures, too. At the start of the month, the normal high and low are 59 and 43 degrees, respectively. However, by month's end, the normals are 47 and 33. That's an 11-degree drop in the mean temperature. The average high temperature is 53 degrees, while the average low for the month is 38.2 degrees.

The warmest November on record occured in 1975 when the average temperature was a relatively balmy 50.5 degrees. The coldest November happened 15 years ago, in 1996, when the mercury averaged 40.7 degrees. Although the temperature has never officially reached 80 degrees at the airport during the month, we've come close a few times. The warmest single day reading was 78 degrees which happened twice, on Nov. 4, 1975, and Nov. 15, 1993. Other notable warm days include 77 degrees (Nov. 2, 1950), and 72 degrees (Nov. 5, 1961).

The length of daylight continues to decrease with each passing day. We're a little more than seven weeks from the Winter Solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. By the middle of the month, Sunrise and Sunset are at 6:41 a.m. and 4:33 p.m., respectively. By the last day of the month, the Sun rises at 6:58 in the morning and sets at 4:24 in the afternoon. That's only one minute later than the earliest Sunset, at 4:23, in early-to-mid December.

The Full Beaver Moon happens November 28 at 9:46 a.m. EST. Why the Beaver Moon? This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

Welcome to November.

Paul

Time-Lapse Video of Storm Surge

This time-lapse video, courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk, shows people putting sand in bags to protect their property from flooding the day before Sandy's arrival. The surge happened at close to midnight, and with the loss of power, he was unable to record the entire effect of the surge.

However, take a look at the swelling of the Sound and the rare waves. The camera was chained to a flag pole. Sand and ocean debris came onshore about a quarter-mile inland. There were "feet of sand" in spots.



 Paul

Hurricane Sandy Causes Death & Destruction to Region

Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the Eastern seaboard with powerful winds, record-low pressure, and historic tidal surges. The hurricane, which brought heavy rain and flooding across the mid-Atlantic region, made its heralded landfall near Atlantic City, N.J., around 8 p.m. Monday evening. It arrived slightly earlier than originally projected because it had picked up speed, moving at about 28 mph.

Although our region was spared the heavy rainfall, winds increased throughout the day Monday, reaching a peak wind gust of 76 miles-an-hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford Monday evening. The hurricane-force gusts resulted in massive power outages, downed trees and power lines, and three deaths in Connecticut.

Unfortunately, the storm came during a Full Moon, causing a storm surge of 10 feet at Bridgeport harbor late Monday night. Sandy's strength and angle of approach combined to produce a record storm surge of water into New York City. The surge level at Battery Park topped 13.88 feet at 9:24 p.m. Monday, surpassing the 10.02 feet record water level set by Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The local shoreline communities, especially Fairfield and Milford, were hit hardest. Many homes, which had been hammered by Tropical Storm Irene just over a year earlier, were severely damaged or destroyed by Sandy. Here is a video of the storm surge at nearby St. Mary's by the Sea in Bridgeport.

 
Flooding prevented some homeowners from even getting to their homes near the beach in Fairfield. People were getting around by kayaks and canoes in the shoreline neighborhood, which was buzzing with the sound of pumps taking water out of houses. At one point Tuesday, United Illuminating reported that 100% of its Fairfield customers were without power. Schools were closed at least through Friday, and Fairfield Ludlowe High School opened a shelter for displaced residents and pets.

An Easton volunteer firefighter died while clearing debris in front of a fire truck Monday night on Judd Road. Lt. Russell Neary was struck by a falling limb. The body of a missing 34-year-old man, who was last seen swimming in the heavy surf after jumping from a pier Monday evening,  was recovered in Milford. Also, a 90-year-old Mansfield woman was killed and two family members were seriously injuted when a tree fell on them during the storm Monday.. 

More than 750,000 people were reported to have lost power across the region. Cities including Washington and Boston closed their mass-transit systems. Schools were closed, and shelters began to fill with hundreds of thousands of people ordered to leave their homes and seek safety. Wall Street trading was disrupted, as were political campaigns throughout the region just eight days before election day. Here is a view of the waves at Laurel Beach in Milford.

When hurricane hunter aircraft measured its central pressure at 940 millibars -- 27.76 inches -- Monday afternoon, it was the lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The previous record holder was the 1938 "Long Island Express" Hurricane, which dropped as low as 946 millibars. Here is a time-lapsed loop of the surface pressure around Hurricane Sandy beginning October 26th.

 

 Paul