Leonid Meteors to be Active Early Tuesday Morning

The following was written by News 12 Westchester meteorologist and astronomer Joe Rao:

This is the time for the Leonids meteors, that middle-of-November, middle-of-the night celestial light show. These ultra-swift light streaks appear to emanate from out of the constellation of Leo (hence the name, “Leonid”), which begins to rise in the northeast around 11 p.m., then gradually ascends the sky, remaining in view for the balance of the night.

The meteors usually reach their peak each year on Nov. 17 or 18 as Earth travels through streams of dust left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle. Tempel-Tuttle orbits the Sun every 33-years, and during its closest approach the heat of the Sun causes some of the comet’s ice to bubble off, taking some dusty debris with it; stray bits of comet matter that go whipping through the solar system.

The average Leonid that is visible to the naked eye, is scarcely larger than a grain of sand. We know them best when they reach the Earth’s upper atmosphere and flare into streaks of light from friction with the rarefied air. They enter with an immense velocity—45 miles per second, or 162,000 miles per hour—and its kinetic energy is used up in such processes as the instantaneous production of light, heat and ionization.

Thus, such a small particle can be seen as a “shooting star” from more than 100 miles away. Obviously, however, it's really the light energy that it develops and not the particle itself that we see.

This year the best time to look for the Leonids will not be on the traditional nights of Nov. 17 or 18, but rather in the early morning hours of Tuesday, Nov. 20. Two reputable experts in the field of meteor science, Jeremie Vaubaillion of France and Mikhail Maslov of Russia, have independently calculated that the Earth is on target to pass directly through a small clump of dust that was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle when it swept around the Sun back in the year 1400. That interaction is to occur between 12:30 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. EST.
 

But don’t expect a tremendous number of meteors. Maslov, in fact, doesn’t think there will be no more than 15 to 20 Leonids per hour as seen from a dark sky location; even less if you trying to watch from a brightly-lit city.

So why bother looking at all? In this case, it isn’t quantity, but quality.

When a comet releases particles into space most are indeed the size of dust and sand grains, but there are also some larger pieces too, ranging from pebble size to perhaps a child’s marble. Those kind of pieces can create outstandingly bright meteors—called “fireballs”—perhaps even meteors that explode in their flight across the sky—called “bolides.”

After a number of revolutions around the Sun, most of the dust-sized particles become dispersed so only the larger pieces remain. In the case of the clump of particles shed by Tempel-Tuttle in 1400, it has circled the Sun 18 times. So if there’s anything left out there in space, there should at least be some of those larger pebble-sized pieces.

If so, then during that 3- or 4-hour interval beginning soon after midnight on Tuesday morning, there’s a “chance” that we might be treated to a few of those types of meteors. The Leonids are well-known for leaving particularly long-enduring incandescent trains, sometimes lingering for many seconds or even minutes. With binoculars you can see these trains drifting against the backdrop of stars, indicative of swift winds in the very high atmosphere.

If you plan to watch, here are a couple of tips: Make sure to stay warm and get comfortable. Should you have a lawn chair that reclines, use it during your search for Leonid meteors since it will help keep your neck from getting stiff as well as make it easier to look at the night sky.

Just seeing one of those dazzlers will make your whole night. Hopefully, nature will be in a show-off mood in the predawn hours of Tuesday.

Shorter Days Lead to Seasonal Affective Disorder

After 18-and-a-half years of working the early-morning shift, I suppose I’ve gotten used to getting up and driving to work in the dark. However, I have an especially difficult time with the Sun setting so early in the afternoon. It seems that there is very little time to do anything outside before it gets dark. In fact, one of the late buses from our neighborhood school arrived just before 5 o’clock last night when it was completely dark out. I don’t like it.

Those who work the 9-to-5 shift are coming home in the dark now. Sunset this afternoon is at 4:33. And, it only gets earlier over the month. By the end of the month, Sunset is at 4:24. The earliest time the Sun sets at our latitude is 4:23 in early December. That is a striking contrast to late June, when the latest Sunset in southwestern Connecticut happens at 8:30.

Psychologically, the darker afternoons and evenings affect many people. You’ve no doubt heard about Seasonal Affective Disorder. According to the National Mental Health Association, some people suffer from symptoms of depression during the Winter months, with those symptoms subsiding during the Spring and Summer. This may be a sign of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). SAD is a mood disorder associated with depression episodes and related to seasonal variations of light.

How does SAD affect people? People with the disorder frequently experience the following:

• Sleep problems – oversleeping but not refreshed, cannot get out of bed, needing a nap in the afternoon
• Overeating – carbohydrate craving leading to weight gain
• Depression, despair, misery, guilt, anxiety – normal tasks become frustratingly difficult
• Family / social problems – avoiding company, irritability, loss of libido, loss of feeling
• Lethargy – too tired to cope, everything an effort
• Physical symptoms – often joint pain or stomach problems, lowered resistance to infection
• Behavioral problems – especially in young people

Melatonin, a sleep-related hormone secreted by the pineal gland in the brain, has been linked to SAD. This hormone, which may cause symptoms of depression, is produced at increased levels in the dark. Therefore, when the days are shorter and darker the production of this hormone increases.

Phototherapy or bright light therapy has been shown to suppress the brain’s secretion of melatonin. Although, there have been no research findings to definitely link this therapy with an antidepressant effect, many people respond to this treatment.

I admit, the early darkness always shocks me in early November. Remember, it was just over two months ago we were still enjoying Summer and relatively brighter evenings. The Sun set at 7:25 on the first day of September. Seemingly, in the blink of an eye, we’re just about five weeks from the first day of Winter. Yeah, it’s a bummer, to be sure.

Personally, the only positive about the longer nights is the relative ease of falling asleep. I actually feel as though I should be going to bed at 8 p.m., even though it’s an early time by most people’s standards. During the Summer, it’s virtually impossible to fall asleep when the Sun is still shining, my son is playing, and I hear people laughing and talking outside. I actually embrace the darker evenings for that reason alone. After all, the 2 o’clock alarm is not a “friend,” no matter the time of the year.

So, if you don’t enjoy the shorter days and longer nights, we have about a month before the length of daylight begins to increase once again. The first day of Winter is technically “the shortest day of the year.” Before you know it, the evenings will start getting a little brighter once more.

It can’t get here fast enough!

Paul

Possible Coastal Storm Next Week

It's not time to panic just yet, but there is the potential for a prolonged coastal storm early next week. The two main weather models --- the European and the Global Forecast System --- have fashioned two completely different scenarios for next week. The Euro, which picked up on Hurricane Sandy more than a week before its arrival, has been the more accurate of the two. It shows the Northeast getting blasted for a prolonged period of time through the middle of next week. Click on the image to enlarge it.

Take a look at each of the different panels. The storm is just taking shape late Sunday, but by Monday evening, the center of low pressure begins to move North along the Atlantic coast. A steep pressure gradient develops between the low to the South and the high pressure system to the North and East, delivering a gusty East wind. That's certainly not good news for Long Island Sound and the coastal communities.

The GFS model, which didn't pick up on Sandy until much later, takes the center of the storm out to sea to the East. By Monday evening (Tuesday 00Z), the center of the storm has moved well to the East, and the gusty winds are just offshore. By Tuesday evening, the storm slowly pulls away to the East, and a drier North wind develops. Take a look at each of the panels.

Naturally, next week is the busiest travel week of the year. We'll certainly have a better gauge on the track of the storm by the end of this week. Fortunately, the local weather picture is fairly quiet the rest of the week and through the upcoming weekend. Today will be mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly with a high temperature in the mid-to-upper 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with a low of 24 to 33 degrees. Make sure you bundle up before you head outside today.

Paul

A Tale of Two Months

The current streak of 20 consecutive warmer-than-normal months may be coming to an end. October's average temperature of  58.1 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford was 3.2 degrees above normal. In fact, the last 14 days of last month were warmer-than-normal, including four days with average temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. In addition, the first six days of October were warmer-than-normal.

This month, however, has been a different story. Yesterday's high temperature of 62 degrees notwithstanding, November's average temperature of 44 degrees through the first 11 days is 4.4 degrees below normal. Although we're expecting one more day with above average temperatures, a cold front will deliver much cooler air later tomorrow through the end of the week.

Take a look at the following bar graph created by Ralph Fato of Norwalk. He wrote, "Here is a look at the departure from normal for maximum temperatures for (two) Connecticut locations. Don’t let the line fool you. The line represents the normal temperature as you can see from the axis on the right. The bars show how much we have been above or below normal since October 1. November is looking cold so far. BDL was 20 degrees below normal on the 7^th!" Click the image to enlarge it.

Thus far this month, six days have been colder-than-normal. Three days (November 6 through 8) were at least ten degrees colder-than-normal. Only two days (November 10 & 11) have been warmer-than-normal. Just two days this month featured morning low temperatures at or below 32 degrees. The current brief stretch of mild weather will come to a close tonight as a cold front brings some rain and much cooler air in its wake. Daytime highs won't escape the 40s by Thursday.

Paul

Wettest November on Record Happened 40 Years Ago

Even though we've experienced two historic storms over the last two weeks, we've only had two days with any measured rain thus far this month. Just under three quarters of an inch of rain fell November 7 (0.45") and November 8 (0.25") combined, leaving us below normal in the rain gauge this month. Rain is expected Tuesday morning as a cold front arrives, but the remainder of the week will be mostly sunny and cooler.

However, 40 years ago today, the weather picture was quite different across southwestern Connecticut. Residents were recovering after a drenching rain and wind storm. Winds gusted to 67 miles-an-hour and over three inches of rain fell across the region, causing broken windows, downed trees, power outages, and significant property damage. It was the first of two significant rainstorms within a week during the wettest November on record.

Nearly a foot of rain (10.22") fell during November of 1972, establishing an all-time record for the month. Consider that the normal average rain for the entire month is 3.65 inches. This November, by contrast, nine of the first 10 days were completely dry. The November 8, 1972 storm delivered 3.04 inches of rain. Just six days later, November 14, nearly three more inches (2.84") soaked the area.

According to the Thursday, November 9, 1972 edition of The Bridgeport Post, "The full force of the coastal storm struck between 2 and 4 o'clock yesterday, slowing traffic on the Connecticut Turnpike and the Merritt Parkway, as the wind-driven rain cut visibility sharply. Public Works Department crews in Bridgeport and across the county were kept busy throughout the afternoon and evening cleaning up fallen tree limbs and branches."



The report stated that the worst electrical interruptions occurred in Norwalk and New Canaan, where 2,600 customers of the Connecticut Light and Power Company were without electricity for varying amounts of time yesterday afternoon and last night. The United Illuminating Company reported a large number of small power failures, resulting from wind gusts, but no major power interruption.

According to the newspaper account, in Milford, a wind gust sent a beach umbrella high in the air and smashed it down on a police patrol car at 2:30 p.m. at Yale Avenue and Easy Street. The policeman said he was unable to avoid the umbrella. It damaged the patrol car's searchlight and left fender, and a moment later struck a parked car anb flew off. Smashed display windows were plentiful as wind gusts reached gale level. One gust of wind peeled off a 30-foot section of a new roof on the Pleasure Beach ballroom.



This November is quite different from the soaker we experienced back in 1972. After Tuesday's morning rain, the next threat of any rain won't happen until early next week when a stalled coastal storm may bring rain and wind to the Northeast.

Paul

Nor'easter Snow Video

I took this video of the snowstorm outside my home, Wednesday afternoon, November 7, 2012.


November 7, 2012, Nor'easter by PaulWXman

Paul