Weather Plays Role in Election Day Outcomes

Today is Election Day. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate, although you'll need to wear a coat or jacket. Today will become partly sunny and chilly with a high near 50 degrees. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. There are many local races on the ballot. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut this evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul

Previewing November's Weather

November is starting on a mild note with high temperatures climbing well into the 60s to close to 70 degrees today. However, a front will push through the region later today followed by a secondary cold front late tomorrow, and that will bring the coldest air in quite some time to the region Sunday night into Monday morning. So, what can we expect during the month of November? Just about anything.

Snow is certainly not out of the question during this month. You may recall that last year over eight inches of snow (8.3") fell at Sikorsky Airport in Stratford from November 7th to the 8th. The most memorable Thanksgiving Day in recent memory occurred in 1989 when over a half-foot of snow fell that day. The snow began falling shortly after midnight, and by the time it ended late Thanksgiving afternoon, it was the biggest single-day snow event in November.

Snow also fell twice in 1995, including 2.4 inches on November 29 of that year. That was the snowiest Winter on record across southwestern Connecticut. Another "snowstorm" of note happened on November 6 and 7 of 1953 when a combined 5.4 inches fell. However, the average snow for the month is only 0.6 inches.

November can also be a wet month, too. The most precipitation in November occured in 1972 when 10.22 inches were recorded. There have also been some impressive single-day totals, including 3.12" (Nov. 2, 1954), 3.04" (Nov. 8, 1972), and 2.91" (Nov. 10, 1948). The average precipitation for the month is 3.81 inches, ranking it fourth behind March, May, and April as the wettest months of the year. The driest November happened 37 years ago when only 0.36" fell in 1976.

We begin to experience a dramatic decline in average temperatures, too. At the start of the month, the normal high and low are 59 and 43 degrees, respectively. However, by month's end, the normals are 47 and 33. That's an 11-degree drop in the mean temperature. The average high temperature is 53 degrees, while the average low for the month is 38.2 degrees.

The warmest November on record occured in 1975 when the average temperature was a relatively balmy 50.5 degrees. The coldest November happened 17 years ago, in 1996, when the mercury averaged 40.7 degrees. Although the temperature has never officially reached 80 degrees at the airport during the month, we've come close a few times. The warmest single day reading was 78 degrees which happened twice, on Nov. 4, 1975, and Nov. 15, 1993. Other notable warm days include 77 degrees (Nov. 2, 1950), and 72 degrees (Nov. 5, 1961).

The length of daylight continues to decrease with each passing day. We're a little more than seven weeks from the Winter Solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. By the middle of the month, Sunrise and Sunset are at 6:41 a.m. and 4:33 p.m., respectively. By the last day of the month, the Sun rises at 6:58 in the morning and sets at 4:24 in the afternoon. That's only one minute later than the earliest Sunset, at 4:23, in early-to-mid December.

The Full Beaver Moon happens November 17th at 10:16 a.m. EST. Why the Beaver Moon? This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

Welcome to November.

Paul

Fairfield Woods Middle School's Sixth-Graders Soar as Weatherkids Stars

Paul

Recalling the Historic Nor'easter Two Years Ago

The historic Nor'easter which happened the weekend of October 29 and 30, 2011, was one for the record books. An unusual early Autumn storm delivered record-breaking October snow and massive power outages across Connecticut the last weekend of October two years ago. By the time the storm pulled away, over a foot of snow fell across much of Northern Fairfield County, and four inches blanketed Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, making Saturday, October 29, the snowiest October day on record.

Many trees and tree branches came crashing down due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow, the leaves still on the trees, and the gusty winds. The snow totals were unbelievable for October. Danbury reported 17 inches of snow, while Ridgefield (15.5") and Shelton (12.8") received over a foot. Locally, Wilton (10.8"), New Canaan (6.0"), Norwalk (5.5"), and Bridgeport (4.0") also had record-breaking snow. Viewer Ralph Fato of Norwalk sent this photo of the Route 7 connector Saturday afternoon.

The normal average monthly snowfall for October in southwestern Connecticut is just a trace. Prior to that weekend, the only measured snow in October fell on Sunday, October 4, 1987, when a half-inch coated the region. That's what made this Autumn snowstorm historic. Take a look at this photo of an ice- and snow-covered lake along Route 7 Sunday afternoon, October 30.

In the wake of the storm, skies cleared, the wind abated, and the temperature dropped like a rock. The mercury fell into the 20s inland and lower 30s along the shoreline, causing icy roads and cold homes for those without power. Take a look at these photos, including a picture of a downed tree and snow-covered Route 7 in Danbury. Was it really October?

Paul

Hurricane Sandy: One Year Later

Today marks the first anniversary of the arrival of Hurricane Sandy. It devastated much of the Eastern seaboard with powerful winds, record-low pressure, and historic tidal surges. The hurricane, which brought heavy rain and flooding across the mid-Atlantic region, made its heralded landfall near Atlantic City, N.J., around 8 p.m. Monday evening, October 29, 2012. It arrived slightly earlier than originally projected because it had picked up speed, moving at about 28 mph.

Although our region was spared the heavy rainfall, winds increased throughout the day Monday, reaching a peak wind gust of 76 miles-an-hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford later that evening. The hurricane-force gusts resulted in massive power outages, downed trees and power lines, and three deaths in Connecticut.

Unfortunately, the storm came during a Full Moon, causing a storm surge of 10 feet at Bridgeport harbor late Monday night. Sandy's strength and angle of approach combined to produce a record storm surge of water into New York City. The surge level at Battery Park topped 13.88 feet at 9:24 p.m. Monday, surpassing the 10.02 feet record water level set by Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The local shoreline communities, especially Fairfield and Milford, were hit hardest. Many homes, which had been hammered by Tropical Storm Irene just over a year earlier, were severely damaged or destroyed by Sandy. Here is a video of the storm surge at nearby St. Mary's by the Sea in Bridgeport.

 
Flooding prevented some homeowners from even getting to their homes near the beach in Fairfield. People were getting around by kayaks and canoes in the shoreline neighborhood, which was buzzing with the sound of pumps taking water out of houses. At one point Tuesday, United Illuminating reported that 100% of its Fairfield customers were without power. Schools were closed the rest of the week, and Fairfield Ludlowe High School opened a shelter for displaced residents and pets.

An Easton volunteer firefighter died while clearing debris in front of a fire truck Monday evening, October 29, on Judd Road. Lt. Russell Neary was struck by a falling limb. The body of a missing 34-year-old man, who was last seen swimming in the heavy surf after jumping from a pier Monday evening,  was recovered in Milford. Also, a 90-year-old Mansfield woman was killed and two family members were seriously injuted when a tree fell on them during the storm Monday.. 

More than 750,000 people were reported to have lost power across the region. Cities including Washington and Boston closed their mass-transit systems. Schools were closed, and shelters began to fill with hundreds of thousands of people ordered to leave their homes and seek safety. Wall Street trading was disrupted, as were political campaigns throughout the region just eight days before election day. Here is a view of the waves at Laurel Beach in Milford.

When hurricane hunter aircraft measured its central pressure at 940 millibars -- 27.76 inches -- Monday afternoon, it was the lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The previous record holder was the 1938 "Long Island Express" Hurricane, which dropped as low as 946 millibars. Here is a time-lapsed loop of the surface pressure around Hurricane Sandy beginning October 26th.

 

 Paul

This Month May be the Driest October Ever on Record

We need rain, desperately. The official monthly rainfall total at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford through this morning is just 0.28", which is well below the 2.86" normal through the period. In fact, there have been just four days with measured rain this month, and three of them produced 0.03" or less. The weather forecast calls for dry conditions to continue through the middle of next week.

The dry weather pattern has been with us for the last six weeks. Only six of the last 42 days have produced measured rain. The only appreciable rain happened September 12 when more than an inch (1.13") was recorded. The total rainfall over the six-week span is less than an inch-and-a-half (1.43"). The ground remains extremely dry. Take a look at this month's climate summary for Sikorsky Airport.

The driest October on record happened exactly 50 years ago when a third-of-an-inch was recorded in 1963. Nearly four inches (3.96") of precipitation fell in October of 2011, including the four inches of snow during the Nor'easter of October 29th, while over three inches (3.24") fell last year, including the rain from Hurricane Sandy. Conversely, the wettest October on record happened in 1955 when nearly 11 inches (10.72") fell.

This year's total precipitation is just under 30 inches (29.78"), which is nearly a half-foot below normal (35.24"). The immediate forecast calls for dry weather through the upcoming weekend and into the middle of next week. The weekend will be fair, breezy, and chilly with daytime highs moderating into the upper 50s by Sunday.

However, it looks like rain will finally happen by Halloween evening, which may spoil festivities for the trick-or-treaters once again. You may recall that Halloween was postponed or cancelled in several local communities each of the last two years due to the weather. Further, the forecast for Halloween rain may keep this month from being the driest on record.

Paul