Full Beaver Moon Happens This Sunday

You may have noticed the Moon waxing over the last several nights. In fact, it was shining brilliantly on my way to work this morning just after 3 o'clock. The Full Beaver Moon happens this Sunday morning, November 17, at 10:16. Unfortunately, there skies will be mostly cloudy late Saturday night and Sunday as a frontal system approaches from the West.

November's Full Moon is so named because this was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm Winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for Winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.



During the late 1800s, beavers were almost hunted to extinction by the white trappers and traders, because the beaver pelt became a very fashionable wardrobe accessory, especially for men's top hats in Europe and in New England. Since that time they have greatly increased in number and in the amount of damage that they cause during the building of their dams and dens.

Are you aware that a single beaver may chew down hundreds of trees every year as he continuously builds and repairs his lodges and dams? The beavers do provide habitat for other animals such as ducks and otters, but they can also cause unexpected large-scale floods.

Over ten years ago in the Washington, D.C. tidal basin, where many of the famous ornamental cherry trees bloom drawing tourists from all over the world, a family of beavers moved into the "luxurious digs." The beavers were noticed as soon as they began downing cherry trees to build their lodges. The National Park Service Rangers quickly set live humane traps and moved the family of pesky beavers to another area where the trees were not as famous or rare.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

As far as our weather goes, today will feature sunshine mixing with high clouds and temperatures in the middle 50s. Tonight will become mostly cloudy and not as cold with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Early clouds will give way to sunshine tomorrow with a high in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with some light drizzle or a sprinkle or two by afternoon with a high near 58 degrees.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

Holland Hill School's Third- and Fourth-Graders Well-Prepared for Weatherkids Visit

I visited with the third- and fourth-graders at Holland Hill School in Fairfield, Wednesday morning, November 13, 2013. They were well-prepared for my visit.

   

Paul

First Snow of Season Coats Lawns

A strong cold front brought a burst of snow to the region early this morning, which caused wet roads and a whitening of the lawns. Officially, one-tenth of an inch of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, but two inches of snow were unofficially reported in Redding. This view along Route 107 in Redding was taken by our camera during the mid-morning snow.

This wasn't the earliest snow in recent memory. That happened two years ago when a Nor'easter delivered up to a foot of snow in parts of Northern Fairfield County October 29, 2011. More than eight inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Airport last November 7 and 8. Here is a look at the dates of the first snowfall from each of the last seven years, courtesy of local climatologist Ralph Fato:

• November 12, 2013
• November 7, 2012
• October 29, 2011
• November 8, 2010
• December 5, 2009
• November 30, 2008
• December 13, 2007

The temperature was in the lower 50s at midnight, but once the cold front cleared the region, the mercury dropped like a rock. In fact, the temperature quickly fell into the low-to-mid 30s by mid-morning. Light drizzle was reported in Norwalk between 3 and 6:45 a.m. before transitioning to a mix of rain and wet snow from 6:45 to 7 o'clock. A half-inch of snow was measured in Norwalk between 7 and 9 o'clock before it tapered off.

Here are three more photos taken by Ralph. The first shows a Wintry scene along the Merritt Parkway in Stamford. The second was taken in Greenwich at 9 o'clock. The last photo was taken at the country club in New Canaan at 11 o'clock.

Paul

Wettest November on Record Happened 41 Years Ago

The last seven weeks have been extremely dry across southwestern Connecticut. Officially, just eight of the last 50 days have featured any measured rain at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. Some light rain and snow showers are expected later tonight into early tomorrow morning, but it should do little to offset a half-foot deficit in the rain gauge this year.

However, 41 years ago today, the weather picture was quite different across southwestern Connecticut. Residents were recovering after a drenching rain and wind storm. Winds gusted to 67 miles-an-hour and over three inches of rain fell across the region, causing broken windows, downed trees, power outages, and significant property damage. It was the first of two significant rainstorms within a week during the wettest November on record.

Nearly a foot of rain (10.22") fell during November of 1972, establishing an all-time record for the month. Consider that the normal average rain for the entire month is 3.65 inches. This November, by contrast, nine of the first 10 days were completely dry. The November 8, 1972 storm delivered 3.04 inches of rain. Just six days later, November 14, nearly three more inches (2.84") soaked the area.

According to the Thursday, November 9, 1972 edition of The Bridgeport Post, "The full force of the coastal storm struck between 2 and 4 o'clock yesterday, slowing traffic on the Connecticut Turnpike and the Merritt Parkway, as the wind-driven rain cut visibility sharply. Public Works Department crews in Bridgeport and across the county were kept busy throughout the afternoon and evening cleaning up fallen tree limbs and branches."

The report stated that the worst electrical interruptions occurred in Norwalk and New Canaan, where 2,600 customers of the Connecticut Light and Power Company were without electricity for varying amounts of time yesterday afternoon and last night. The United Illuminating Company reported a large number of small power failures, resulting from wind gusts, but no major power interruption.

According to the newspaper account, in Milford, a wind gust sent a beach umbrella high in the air and smashed it down on a police patrol car at 2:30 p.m. at Yale Avenue and Easy Street. The policeman said he was unable to avoid the umbrella. It damaged the patrol car's searchlight and left fender, and a moment later struck a parked car anb flew off. Smashed display windows were plentiful as wind gusts reached gale level. One gust of wind peeled off a 30-foot section of a new roof on the Pleasure Beach ballroom.

This November is quite different from the soaker we experienced back in 1972. After tomorrow morning's light rain and snow showers, it will turn windy and much colder with a daytime high temperature in the lower 40s. Temperatures will begin to moderate by the end of the week and this weekend, but no rain is in sight until at least the beginning of next week.

Paul

Classic Nor'easter Dumped Over a Half-Foot of Snow to Region One Year Ago

Just nine days after Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of southwestern Connecticut, especially shoreline communities, a classic Nor'easter brought gusty winds, cold temperatures, and record-breaking snow to the region, Wednesday, November 7, 2012. The snow began falling late-morning as the storm exploded, causing bands of moderate-to-heavy snow to fall the rest of the day and through the night.

Officially, Sikorsky Memorial Airport recorded 8.3 inches of snow from November 7 through early November 8. The six inches that fell November 7 was a record for the date and the second snowiest November day on record. More than a half-foot of snow (6.2 inches) fell on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 23, 1989. Three inches of snow fell as recently as November 27, 2002, but nothing quite like what we experienced last year at this time. The photos are courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk.

Here are some of the snowfall totals from across southwestern Connecticut:

• Monroe: 11.5"
• Danbury: 9.9"
• Bridgeport: 8.0"
• Ridgefield: 8.0"
• Darien: 7.9"
• Greenwich: 6.0"
• Trumbull: 6.0"
• New Canaan: 6.0"
• Norwalk: 5.8"
• Stamford: 5.3"

A strong North wind continued to pull colder air into much of New England throughout the day. The high temperature of 39 degrees November 7 happened at 10:21 a.m. By mid-afternoon, the mercury had dropped into the low-to-mid 30s, causing the precipitation to fall as heavy wet snow. The low temperature fell to 31 degrees at 8:24 p.m. The normal high and low temperatures for November 7 are 56 and 40 degrees, respectively. The average temperature of 35 degrees on November 7 was 13 degrees colder than the normal average of 48.

Initially, it appeared the storm would be more of a wind-maker rather than a snow-maker, as computer models pushed the center of the storm farther to the East. However, the winds never reached the 50-mph forecast gusts which were anticipated. The highest wind gust at Sikorsky Airport was 36 miles per hour out of the North, and the highest wind speed was 29 miles an hour. The average wind speed during the storm was 19.2 miles an hour.

Paul

Weather Plays Role in Election Day Outcomes

Today is Election Day. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate, although you'll need to wear a coat or jacket. Today will become partly sunny and chilly with a high near 50 degrees. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. There are many local races on the ballot. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut this evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul