May Was Warmer & Wetter Than Normal

It was a crazy, roller-coaster ride of temperatures last month across southwestern Connecticut. The last eight days of May featured high temperatures of 68, 75, 83, 87, 59, 63, 71, and 71 degrees, respectively. The average temperature for the month at Sikorsky Airport was 61.2 degrees, which was 2.1 degrees above normal. There were two prolonged streaks of above-normal temperatures from May 1 through May 7 and from May 15 through May 21.

The first seven days last month were warmer-than-normal. However, the average daily temperature was at or above normal all but four of the first 21 days in May. Just 10 days were cooler-than-normal, including two straight on May 8 & 9, May 13 & 14, and May 22 & 23. The last four days of the month were cooler-than-normal, including May 28, which featured a high temperature of 59 degrees just one day after a high of 87 degrees.

The total rainfall last month was exactly four inches, which was 0.2" above normal. There were 13 days with measured rain, including nearly an inch-and-a-half (1.49") May 1, and streaks of four consecutive days with measured rain from May 8 through May 11, and three straight days with measured rain from May 15 through May 17. Seven of the days had at least a tenth of an inch of rain, while three days had more than a half-inch.

Thunderstorms rolled through the region late in the morning of May 22. Lightning struck a tree five feet from a home on Surrey Lane in Fairfield. The photo of the lightning strike appears below. Fortunately, there were no injuries. Nearly three-quarters of an inch (0.73") of rain fell during the day as the high temperature didn't even reach 60 degrees (59).

Thirteen days in May featured clear skies, while 11 were partly cloudy, and seven were mostly cloudy. The hottest temperature last month was 87 degrees (May 27), and the coolest temperature was 47 (May 7). There were 134 hearing degree days, which is 71 below normal. The highest wind speed was 49 miles an hour from the West on May 4. There were four other days with peak wind speeds of at least 30 miles an hour.

Paul

June Preview

June will open with beautiful weather Sunday under mostly sunny skies, seasonable temperatures, and a light breeze. Expect a daytime high of 72 degrees, which is just about normal for this time of the year. In fact, the mercury will rebound close to 80 degrees Monday before more showers arrive by the middle of next week.

So, what can we expect for June? As far as our local weather is concerned, the average high temperature for southwestern Connecticut jumps to 80 degrees by the end of the month, a leap of seven degrees from June 1. The all-time record high for the month is 97 degrees, which was established during the record-breaking heat wave on June 9, 2008.

That unusual late-Spring heat wave six years ago forced early dismissals and closings at area schools. The unseasonably warm air arrived Sunday, June 8, when the mercury reached 90 degrees. The next two days featured daytime high temperatures of 97 and 96 degrees, respectively, capping a most unusually hot stretch of weather for early June.

The mercury also reached 96 degrees two other times (June 19, 1994, and June 26, 1949). Record high temperatures of 95 degrees have been set three times, including back-to-back days of June 16 and 17 of 1957. The warmest June on record happened in 1994 when the average temperature for the month was 71.7 degrees, well above the 68.0 degree normal.

On the flip side, early June can still be gray, damp, and cool. Although the temperature has never fallen below 40 degrees for the month, the record lows for the first half of June are consistently in the lower 40s. The chilliest morning was 41 degrees on June 1, 1967. The “coldest” June on record happened in 1982 when the average temperature was 63.8 degrees, over four degrees colder than normal!

The wettest June on record happened 42 years ago in 1972 when nearly a foot-and-a-half of rain fell (17.7″). That’s well above the 3.57″ norm based on climatology. Unbelievably, there was nearly a completely dry June in 1949 when only 0.07″ of rain was recorded. The most rain recorded in one day happened on June 19, 1972 when 6.18″ fell. Nearly five inches (4.79″) fell on June 5, 1982.

The length of daylight continues to grow during the month. In fact, by the start of June the sky begins to brighten in the East a little before 4 o’clock in the morning. I can actually hear a few birds chirping when I arrive at the News 12 Connecticut studios shortly after three o’clock in the morning. June features the “longest days” of the year, and by the end of the month the Sun sets at 8:30, the latest ever in southwestern Connecticut. The earliest Sunrise happens at 5:18 from June 13 through June 16.

June features the Full Strawberry Moon. It will be full Friday, June 13th at 12:11 a.m. This name was was universal to every Algonquin tribe. However, in Europe they called it the Rose Moon. The relatively short season for harvesting strawberries comes each year during the month of June, so the Full Moon that occurs during that month was christened for the strawberry!

Happy June.

Paul

Sunrise at Calf Pasture Beach

Morning news anchor Amelie Wilson is on special assignment this morning. She took this photo at sunrise along Calf Pasture Beach in Norwalk. It's crystal clear and chilly with temperatures in the 40s. 

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant today with a high temperature of 65 degrees. That's warmer than yesterday's high of 59, but much cooler than Tuesday's record high of 87. The normal high for this date is 71.

Paul

New Meteor Shower Saturday Morning

NOAA Predicts Below-Normal Hurricane Season This Year

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer.

El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming from Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

“Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA’s network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “And even though we expect El Niño to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land falling storm to cause a disaster.”

Humberto was the first of only two Atlantic hurricanes in 2013. It reached peak intensity, with top winds of 90 mph, in the far eastern Atlantic.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said the Atlantic – which has seen above-normal seasons in 12 of the last 20 years – has been in an era of high activity for hurricanes since 1995. However, this high-activity pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño, and by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures than we’ve seen in recent years.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical Pacific are already taking on some El Niño characteristics. Also, we are currently seeing strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, and NOAA’s climate models predict these conditions will persist, in part because of El Niño,” Bell said. “The expectation of near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures this season, rather than the above-average temperatures seen since 1995, also suggests fewer Atlantic hurricanes.”

NOAA is rolling out new tools at the National Hurricane Center this year. An experimental mapping tool will be used to show communities their storm surge flood threat. The map will be issued for coastal areas when a hurricane or tropical storm watch is first issued, or approximately 48 hours before the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. The map will show land areas where storm surge could occur and how high above ground the water could reach in those areas.

Paul

Villa Maria's School's Students Perform Weather Concert

I visited with the students at Villa Maria School in Stamford this morning. The students staged a weather concert, which included a Beatles backdrop and a popular Beatles song previewing the holiday weekend forecast. They were great!

Paul