Preparation is Key Before Violent Thunderstorms Strike

The deadly and destructive tornadoes which struck Massachusetts Wednesday were associated with a strong cold front which plowed into an extremely warm and humid air mass during the height of afternoon heating. Strong thunderstorms spawned at least three confirmed tornadoes. A Tornado Watch was issued for southwestern Connecticut early Wednesday afternoon, and even though severe weather remained to the North, any watch or warning issued by the National Weather Service must be taken seriously.

The hurricane season also began Wednesday, and the official start of Summer is less than three weeks away. Needless to say, it’s that time of the year again when thunderstorms become a staple in the seven-day forecast. Whether it’s the heat and humidity which bring late-afternoon “popcorn” thunderstorms, or a well-defined cold front advancing from the West that triggers cloud-to-ground lightning, thunderstorms are a seemingly regular feature in our late-Spring and Summertime weather forecast.

Thunderstorms certainly put on a fascinating show, complete with the flashing lightning and booming thunder, but they are dangerous, nonetheless. There are precautions you can take before, during, and after a thunderstorm to assure that you and your family remain safe.

Thunderstorms can appear just about anywhere, anytime during the Spring and Summer, especially when people are enjoying the outdoors. If you have plans to be outside for an extended period of time and thunderstorms are possible, make sure you check the forecast before leaving, watch for signs of approaching storms, keep an AM radio with you to hear the electrical static, and be prepared to move inside.

Before a thunderstorm strikes, make sure you have a flashlight and extra batteries, battery-operated portable radio, first aid kit and manual, non-electric can opener, essential medicines, and cash. If a thunderstorm should suddenly develop and you are outdoors, here are some guidelines to follow:

• Attempt to get into a building or hardtop car and keep the windows closed;
• If there isn’t a structure in the area, go to an open space and squat low to the ground. If you’re in the woods, find an area protected by a low clump of trees. Never stand beneath a large tree in the open;
• Kneel or crouch with your hands on your knees;
• Avoid tall structures, such as tall trees, fences, telephone lines, or power lines;
• Stay away from natural lightning rods, such as golf clubs, fishing rods, bicycles, or camping equipment;
• Stay away from rivers, lakes, or other bodies of water;
• If you’re boating or swimming, get to land and find shelter immediately;
• If you are isolated in an open field and feel your hair stand on end, that indicates lightning is about to strike. Drop to your knees and bend forward, put your hands on your knees, and do not lie flat on the ground.

If you are indoors:

• Do not take a bath or shower. Metal pipes can transmit electricity;;
• Turn off air conditioners. Power surges from lightning can overload the compressors;
• Avoid using the telephone since the lines conduct electricity;
• Do not handle any electrical equipment;
• Listen to a battery-operated radio for the latest storm information.

If you are in a vehicle:

• Keep windows completely closed;
• Pull safely onto the shoulder of a road away from any trees that may fall;
• Avoid flooded roadways;
• Stay in the vehicle and turn on the emergency flashers during heavy rain.

Our weather will remain pleasant and calm through tomorrow before some unsettled conditions arrive by the end of the weekend. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm later Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will remain in the 70s through the middle of next week.

Paul

June Weather Preview

I certainly hope you enjoyed Memorial Day weekend. The weather was quite warm and humid, especially yesterday. The high temperature at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford Monday afternoon was 87 degrees, tying the record high for the date which was set in 1987. We'll finish May on a sunny and warm not, but it won't be as humid as highs reach the mid 80s inland and 70s along the immediate shoreline due to an afternoon sea breeze.

 
June is here already, and that means the length of daylight continues to grow, and the first day of Summer is just around the corner. The direct rays of the Sun strike the Tropic of Cancer at 1:16 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 21, reaching their northernmost point on the face of the Earth. That marks the start of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

As far as our June weather is concerned, the average high temperature for southwestern Connecticut jumps to 80 degrees by the end of the month, a leap of seven degrees from June 1. The all-time record high for the month is 97 degrees, which was established during the record-breaking heat wave on June 9, 2008.

That unusual late-Spring heat wave three years ago forced early dismissals and closings at area schools. The unseasonably warm air arrived Sunday, June 8, when the mercury reached 90 degrees. The next two days featured daytime high temperatures of 97 and 96 degrees, respectively, capping a most unusually hot stretch of weather for early June.

The mercury also reached 96 degrees two other times (June 19, 1994, and June 26, 1949). Record high temperatures of 95 degrees have been set three times, including back-to-back days of June 16 and 17 of 1957. The warmest June on record happened in 1994 when the average temperature for the month was 71.7 degrees, well above the 68.0 degree normal.

On the flip side, early June can still be gray, damp, and cool. Although the temperature has never fallen below 40 degrees for the month, the record lows for the first half of June are consistently in the lower 40s. The chilliest morning was 41 degrees on June 1, 1967. The “coldest” June on record happened in 1982 when the average temperature was 63.8 degrees, over four degrees colder than normal!

The wettest June on record happened 38 years ago in 1972 when nearly a foot-and-a-half of rain fell (17.7″). That’s well above the 3.57″ norm based on 40 years of climatology. Unbelievably, there was nearly a completely dry June in 1949 when only 0.07″ of rain was recorded. The most rain recorded in one day happened on June 19, 1972 when 6.18″ fell. Nearly five inches (4.79″) fell on June 5, 1982.

The length of daylight continues to grow during the month. In fact, by the start of June the sky begins to brighten in the East a little before 4 o’clock in the morning. I can actually hear a few birds chirping when I arrive at the News 12 Connecticut studios shortly after three o’clock in the morning. June features the “longest days” of the year, and by the end of the month the Sun sets at 8:30, the latest ever in southwestern Connecticut. The earliest Sunrise happens at 5:18 from June 13 through June 16.

June features the Full Strawberry Moon. It will be full on June 15th at 4:14 p..m. This name was was universal to every Algonquin tribe. However, in Europe they called it the Rose Moon. The relatively short season for harvesting strawberries comes each year during the month of June, so the Full Moon that occurs during that month was christened for the strawberry!

Happy June.

Paul

Rainy Pattern Keeps Local Reservoir Levels at or Near Capacity

More than a half-inch of rain fell yesterday, bringing the monthly total to well over five inches. The rainy pattern has persisted for most of May, keeping local reservoir levels at or near capacity. Officially, we've received 5.26" of rain this month, well above the 2.99" normal through yesterday. The yearly precipitation total (22.61") is nearly five inches above normal (17.78").

So, how are the local reservoirs doing? The latest report issued by the Connecticut Department of Public Health, shows levels above normal for most of the state's reservoirs. Aquarion Water Company of Connecticut reports that the Greenwich system is at 99.5% of capacity, which is 102% of normal. The Stamford and Norwalk systems are at 100% of capacity, putting Stamford at 106% of normal and Norwalk at  101% of normal.

The following bar graph illustrates that reservoir capacity levels statewide are at their highest point in more than a year. The levels were at their lowest point in September and October last year when they fell below 80 percent capacity. The current levels for each month are shaded in blue, while historical levels are indicated in purple.

 
Monday's rain marked the 10th wet day this month. In fact, eight of the last ten days have featured measured rain, including 2.35" on May 18, 1.26" on May 17, and nearly a half-inch on May 4 and May 14. Since the start of meteorological Spring --- March 1 --- we've seen over a foot of rain (13.50"), nearly two-and-a-half inches above the 11.13" normal through today. In case you're wondering, 2.74" fell last May.

Today will be a warmer and more humid day with a chance of showers or thunderstorms developing later this afternoon as high temperatures reach into the 70s. Tonight will be cloudy and mild with early showers or storms and lows of 58 to 63. Tomorrow and Thursday will be the best days of the week under mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to close to 60 degrees. Scattered storms are likely Friday through Sunday.

Paul 

Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts in 11 days, and it will be a busy one if this year's predictions are accurate. Federal forecasters announced yesterday that they expect three-to-six major hurricanes during what they say should be an above-average Atlantic storm season. Thankfully, no major hurricane has made landfall in the United States during the last five years, but forecasters warned Atlantic and Gulf coast residents their luck could run out this year.

You may recall that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was well above average, with the most number of named storms since 2005. There were 19 named storms, which tied the 1995 and 1887 Atlantic hurricane seasons for the third largest number of named storms. It also featured 12 hurricanes, which tied the 1969 season for the second largest number of hurricanes. 

As for this year, as many as 18 named tropical storms may develop during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season which begins June 1. That's the word from forecasters at the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. Six-to-10 of those storms could strengthen into hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three-to-six of those could become major hurricanes, with maximum winds of 111 miles per hour or more. 

The 2011 season was not expected to be as extreme, since ocean temperatures are only two degrees warmer than normal. Last year, the ocean temperature was four degrees warmer. Also, a Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon known as “La Nina’’ was expected to dissipate early in the Summer before the season’s peak, which is typically from August to October.

The American Red Cross says families can take steps now to create an emergency plan. "This is an ideal time to get a disaster supply kit ready, make an evacuation plan with your family, and get information on what to do during a hurricane," said Charley Shimanski, senior vice president of Red Cross Disaster Services. "It's also the right time to learn how to locate a shelter, and new technology is making it even easier to do that."

Short-term, our weekend weather looks fairly good, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. However, keep an eye to the sky later this afternoon for a possible strong thunderstorm, especially if any sunshine breaks through to stir up the atmosphere. Today's high will reach the mid 60s along the coast and 70 degrees or better inland. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high of 72, and fair and cooler weather is expected Sunday.

Have a good weekend.

Paul 

Today Marks 15th Anniversary of Warmest Spring Day on Record

Today marks the 15th anniversary of the warmest May day on record. The mercury soared to 97 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on Monday, May 20, 1996, nearly 30 degrees higher than the average high temperature for the date. In fact, only one other Spring day has been as warm, and that happened on June 9 of 2008. What made the record high of 1996 so memorable was that it happened just 40 days after nearly a foot of snow capped the snowiest Winter on record, and just days after much colder-than-normal temperatures.

“Just over a week ago, the climate got rewound to Winter,” wrote N. R. Kleinfield of The New York Times in an article dated May 21, 1996. “Six inches of snow coated parts of upstate New York (as if the year required more snow). In the city last week, the high temperature dipped to the 50s. Spring, you might have noticed, either got lost or just forgot to come. Then came yesterday (May 20, 1996). It all got fast-forwarded to August. “Bathing suits instead of ski parkas,” he continued.

“Turn off the heater and turn up the air-conditioner. What’s going on? Is this Earth or is this Mars? People could be excused for being mystified, discombobulated, distraught, furious, dazed, crazed, tentative, dizzy and, of course, just plain really, really hot.” The temperature reached a record high of 96 degrees in Central Park, eclipsing the previous record of 91 set in 1959, and a new record was established in Newark, where it was 99 degrees. Incredibly, just over a week earlier, on the weekend of May 11 and 12, 1996, it snowed in upstate New York.

Remember, the first two-and-a-half weeks of May in 1996 were unseasonably chilly. The record heat and outages at two power plants, one in Westchester and one in upstate New York, reduced the electricity reserves of New York state’s power pool, leading Consolidated Edison to ask customers to curtail electricity consumption. With air-conditioners thrumming away, demand in New York City reached around 9,000 megawatts, well above the normal 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts for this time of year.

Twelve years later, a late Spring scorcher, which included another 97-degree Spring day, forced area schools to dismiss early and close in early June of 2008. Temperatures soared to 90 degrees or hotter on Sunday, June 8 (90 degrees), Monday, June 9 (97), and Tuesday, June 10 (96). The normal high temperature for the first week of June is 74 degrees. It’s the first time in recent memory that school systems shut down due to the oppressive heat.

It won't be nearly as hot this afternoon, but it will certainly be humid. There is a chance of a shower or stronger thunderstorm as the low pressure system which brought plenty of rain to the region continues to spin over the Northeast. High temperatures will hover close to 70 degrees. Another spot shower or storm is possible tomorrow, but the weekend weather will be much better than what we've experienced this week.

Paul

Second Straight Day of Record Rain Punctuates Dreary Week of Weather

This has been one of the dreariest weeks of weather in recent memory. Yesterday marked the fifth straight day with measured rain across southwestern Connecticut, and we haven't seen much of the Sun since last Friday. Unfortunately, the weather pattern responsible for this week's weather won't move away any time soon. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm are in the forecast the next two days with afternoon high temperatures into the 60s.

Officially, nearly two-and-a-half inches (2.35") of rain fell yesterday at Sikorsky Memorial Airport, marking the second straight day of record rain. Well over an inch (1.26") of rain was measured Tuesday, bringing the two-day total to more than three-and-a-half inches. The total amount of rain over the last five days (4.18") is greater than the normal rainfall (4.03") for the entire month, based on 40+ years of averages.
Take a look at the rain amounts from each of the last five days:

• Saturday: 0.45"
• Sunday: 0.09"
• Monday: 0.03"
• Tuesday: 1.26"
• Wednesday: 2.35"

Not surprisingly, this year's precipitation total is well above normal. Since January 1, nearly two feet (22.01") of liquid precipitation has been measured, which is much greater than the 17.13" normal through today. Thus far this month, the rain gauge shows 4.66" of rain, nearly double the 2.34" normal through May 19. In addition, since the start of climatological Spring --- March 1 --- over a foot of rain (12.90") has fallen, and that's more than the 10.48" normal through the last 40 days.


I'm afraid the unsettled weather pattern will continue the next couple of days. Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with patchy fog and a few scattered showers. There may even be a strong thunderstorm this afternoon if any sunshine is able to break through the clouds. Tomorrow will be cloudy with a few showers and a possible storm with daytime highs in the 60s.

I'm sick of this weather!

Paul