Hurricane Forecast Team Sticks to Earlier Prediction

Longtime area residents will no doubt remember the two hurricanes which struck southwestern Connecticut with great fury 56 years ago this month. Hurricane Connie soaked New England with torrential rains on August 12 and 13, 1955. Then, just five days later, Tropical Storm Diane followed suit creating massive flooding not seen since the 1930s.

While the two hurricanes affected the entire Atlantic coast, Connecticut suffered the most damage. For example, of the 180 lives that were lost, 77 were in Connecticut. Of the 680 million dollars in property damage, over 350 million dollars occurred in Connecticut. Over 200 dams in New England suffered partial to total failure. This is a photo of Winsted, virtually devastated by the flood.

We've been extremely fortunate in recent years with respect to hurricanes and tropical weather, but that doesn't mean we should let our guard down at all. The well-respected forecast team at Colorado State University stuck to its earlier seasonal hurricane forecasts yesterday, calling for 16 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major storms packing winds of more than 110 miles per hour.

The CSU team’s leaders, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, predict that this season be similar to hurricane seasons in 1952, 1966, 2005, and 2008. The team points to a warm sea surface temperature and unusually low sea-level pressure in the tropical Atlantic among the reasons Florida could see a very active hurricane season.

They also point to Pacific Ocean conditions that are neutral between El Nino and La Nino. El Ninos is a warmer-than- usual pattern in the Pacific that can create winds that shear apart hurricanes before they form. La Nina — a cooler than usual pattern — and neutral conditions have no such effect.

For the remainder of the season, Klotzbach also recalculated probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast:

•A 70 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the United States coastline;

•A 46 percent chance for the East Coast, including Florida. The long-term average for the last century is 31 percent;

•A 45 percent chance for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle West to Brownsville. The full-season average for the last century is 30 percent.

Many people still remember Hurricane Gloria in September of 1985, but the combination of Connie and Diane 30 years earlier yielded rainfall totals close to 25 inches in some areas, resulting in unprecedented flooding. Nearly all of the major rivers in the lower Connecticut Valley exceeded flood stage. Some rivers rose more than 20 feet over their banks. Let's hope we never see that again.

For now, though, we continue to watch Tropical Storm Emily, which showed continued signs of disorganization and slowed to dump torrential rains on Hispaniola. Emily's forecast track still shows the storm will regroup and brush past South Florida, with the latest track a bit further east than had been feared Wednesday.

Paul

Lightning Over the Atlantic Video

Ralph Fato of Norwalk sent the following video to me. He wrote, "Here’s a five minute edited video of lightning over the Atlantic Ocean Monday night (August 1). I caught over 15 bolts on camera. It was incredible to watch. Winds were sustained around 15-20 mph at one point on the beach."

He used a Kodak z990 to capture the video. Click the 720 HD option.



Paul

Hot & Dry July by the Numbers

The official weather statistics for July have been tabulated and, as expected, the month was much warmer and drier than normal. The highlight of last month was the 103-degree temperature on July 22, which tied the all-time record high for southwestern Connecticut. Just one day later, the mercury soared to 96 degrees during the hottest part of the month.

The daily average temperature for July was 77.6 degrees, which is more than three-and-a-half degrees above the normal average (74) and less than a degree away from the record of 78.4 degrees set in 1994. There were five days which saw temperatures climb above 90 degrees, including July 11 (91 degrees), July 12 (95), and July 30 (91).

All but two of the first 13 days of July were warmer than normal. The hottest stretch happened from July 16 through July 24 when the daily average temperature was above normal for nine consecutive days. All told, there were only six days with cooler-than-normal temperatures, but five of those were just a degree below normal and one (July 25) was just two degrees cooler-than-normal.

Only two inches of rain fell last month, which is slightly better than half the normal rainfall (3.77") for July. There were only eight days with measured precipitation, but only four days with more than two-hundredths of an inch of rain. Two days featured at least a half-inch of rain, including July 26 (0.80") and July 8 (0.50"). The only other day with substantial rain happened July 18 (0.45").

Although August got off to a wild start with strong thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, a quieter day is expected. Today will be mostly sunny, quite warm, and somewhat less humid with afternoon temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Tonight will be partly cloudy and mild with a low near 60. A few scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to close to 80 degrees.

Paul

August Weather Traditionally Hot and Tropical

August is about to pick up where July left off. Today will be hot and humid with late-afternoon thunderstorms and a high temperature close to 90 degrees. Some of the storms may be strong with heavy rain, vivid lightning, and gusty winds. You'll certainly need to be aware of the weather if you're going to be outdoors today.

You may recall that last August was much warmer than normal. We experienced a heat wave the last three days of the month, and the average monthly temperature (75.1 degrees) was less than one degree from the record of 76 degrees set in 1955. Five years ago, we christened August with a heat wave when the first three days established record high temperatures of 95, 96, and 97 degrees, respectively, at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford.

Traditionally, August is the second warmest month of the year with a mean average temperature of 73.1 degrees, just behind July's average of 74 degrees, based on 40 years worth of data. The mercury has actually climbed to 100 degrees twice --- on August 9, 2001, and August 27, 1948. In fact, the daily record highs for the month never dip below 90 degrees. The warmest August on record (1955) featured two of the most potent rainstorms on record.

However, there are subtle signs that Summer is in decline over the next four weeks. The normal high temperature falls from 82 degrees on August 1 to 78 degrees by the end of the month. The overall mean temperature drops from 75 degrees to 70 by August 31. In fact, the record low temperature on August 29 is 44 degrees!

Daily sunshine continues to dwindle, too. We'll enjoy 14 hours and 21 minutes of daylight today. But, by the last day of the month, the Sun is out for 13 hours and nine minutes. We lose about an hour and a quarter of daylight over the next 31 days. In fact, sunrise occurs at 6:18 and sets at 7:27 by August 31. Remember, on the first day of Summer, the Sun set at 8:30.

As far as rainfall is concerned, the month averages about 3.75" of precipitation. The wettest August happened in 1952 when 13.29" of rain fell. There have been some drenching rains in August, including 4.66" on August 19, 1991, 4.01" on August 27, 2006, 3.99" on August 11, 2000, 3.92" on August 12, 1955, and 3.69" on August 21, 1952. Remember, we are in the heart of hurricane season, and tropical moisture is always a threat.

Long-time area residents will never forget August of 1955 when two of the most memorable hurricanes --- Connie and Diane --- battered the Northeast. Hurricane Connie soaked New England with torrential rains on August 13, 1955. Just five days later, Tropical Storm Diane followed suit creating massive flooding not seen since the 1930s.

The combination of Connie and Diane yielded rainfall totals close to 25 inches in some areas, resulting in unprecedented flooding. Nearly all of the major rivers in the lower Connecticut Valley exceeded flood stage. Some rivers rose more than 20 feet over their banks. There was tremendous destruction in the Naugatuck River Valley, especially in the city of Ansonia.

Let's hope this August is somewhat quieter and more tolerable. After the thunderstorms roll through the region later this evening, some tranquil weather is expected tomorrow. Another shower or storm is possible Wednesday, followed by sunny and warm weather the rest of the week.

Paul

Carry an AM Radio to Detect Lightning from Approaching Storms

Another round of potentially strong thunderstorms is possible this afternoon as an approaching cold front plows into a very warm and humid air mass over southwestern Connecticut. In fact, daybreak temperatures were in the upper 70s, and the dew point was close to 70 degrees making it downright tropical outside.

If you're going to be outside later this afternoon and especially this evening, you'll need to keep an eye to the Western sky. Lightning can be a killer. However, if you don't have access to the latest radar, one of the easiest ways to detect nearby lightning is with an AM radio. Ever since I was a child, I have been fascinated by the sound of static on AM radio during thunderstorms.

Each stroke of lightning sends out an electromagnetic radio wave that creates a "static crash" on your AM radio receiver. When you hear these static crashes on the radio, you are actually listening to the lightning in real time. In addition, when you hear thunder outside, you are listening to the time-delayed sound of the lightning.

When I was a child, I was glued to the AM radio. It was the only source of popular music, live sporting events, and local newscasts "back in the day." We didn't have any of the modern technology of today. I quickly learned that I could hear many powerful stations East of the Mississippi River late at night. That's when I'd listen to baseball games from Cleveland, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh.

What struck me as bizarre was that I could hear static from lightning in other parts of the country even though the weather was clear where I lived. That's because lightning is propagated as radio waves by the Earth's ionosphere. So, when I heard static on KDKA in Pittsburgh, I instantly knew why the Pirates' game was being delayed by rain and thunderstorms.

When thunderstorms arrive later this afternoon, why not give it a try. You can hear the sounds of lightning best on the lower frequencies of the AM radio band. Try to find a clear spot on the dial where you can't hear any signals from any radio stations. They will interfere with your listening for static on the radio.

Then, listen for the sounds of static. Radio scientists and engineers call these sounds "static crashes." They are actually the sounds of the lightning. Watch for lightning outside. You will notice that you hear lightning on your AM radio at the exact same time you see the lightning flashes. This is because radio waves and light both travel at the speed of light, which is about 186,000 miles per second.

Fortunately, we won't hear any static on the AM radio this weekend, at least locally. It will be mostly sunny, hot, and moderately humid tomorrow and Sunday with daytime highs in the upper 80s to close to 90 degrees and nighttime lows near 70. Believe it or not, I'll still have my AM radio with me when I take my daily walks. Some habits are hard to break.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

Viewer's Photos Tell the Weather Story

A powerful cold front, as expected, pushed through southwestern Connecticut late yesterday bringing two rounds of intense thunderstorms. The storms delivered locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Nearly one inch (0.80") of rain fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, bringing the monthly total close to two inches (1.81").

The high temperature climbed to 89 degrees at 3:14 p.m. before the storms brought gusty Northwest winds of 25 to 30 miles an hour and a peak wind gust of 36 miles an hour. As a result, the temperature dropped nearly 20 degrees in five hours. One of our viewers, Lori, took this photo of a rainbow in the Black Rock section of Bridgeport following the first thunderstorm.

The second round of thunderstorms brought heavier rain during the late-eveing hours. Once the storm exited, skies cleared and a Northwest wind delivered much drier air. Dew points dropped into the upper 50s at daybreak this morning, and it was certainly more comfortable. Another viewer sent this photo of a beatuful sunrise behind the sparkling water fountain at Commons Park at Harbor Point in Stamford.

Today will be the best day of the week. We will enjoy mostly sunny skies, lower humidity, and a warm afternoon with daytime highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy and mild with a low in the 60s. Tomorrow will become partly sunny and a little more humid with a high in the mid 80s. Thunderstorms are likely tomorrow night and early Friday in advance of hotter air which will arrive by the end of the week.

Paul