New England Regional Little League Tournament Weather "Batting a Thousand"

Fairfield American Little League plays its fourth and final game of the round-robin New England Regional tournament against Wellesley, Massachusetts, this evening at 8 o'clock at Breen Field in Bristol. The weather will be warm and humid, but there is very little chance of rain. Skies should be partly cloudy with a temperature of 76 degrees, humidity at 71%, and a South wind at six miles an hour by game time. Fairfield American is hoping to win its fourth game in a row.

So far, Mother Nature hasn't adversely affected the tournament. The weather has been fine since the first games were played last Friday. Fairfield American defeated Coventry, RI, last Friday night by a 1-0 score, and followed that with an impressive 17-1 win over South Burlington, VT, in the heat and humidity Saturday night. The squad won its third straight game Monday night by posting a 15-2 triumph over Scarborough, Maine.

The semi-finals are scheduled at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. tomorrow, but there is a threat of thunderstorms during the afternoon. It will be warm and humid with an afternoon high temperature of 86 degrees and a dew point close to 70 degrees. The games should be played, though, even though a rain or thunderstorm delay is certainly not out of the question.

The championship game is scheduled for Saturday evening at 6 o'clock. Based on the latest forecast, thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours --- which may lead to flash flooding --- should begin later Friday and continue into Saturday morning. Skies are expected to gradually clear Saturday afternoon. However, it will be warm and quite humid with a dew point in the lower 70s. It will certainly feel tropical and oppressive.

I'm sure the grounds crew will keep the playing field as dry as possible. The field is well-manicured, and the championship game will be televised by ESPN, so I'm fairly confident the final game will be played. The winner will travel to Williamsport to play in this year's Little League World Series. Fairfield American, which has won the state championship each of the last three years, is hoping to make its second appearance in the LLWS in the last three years.

Let's go Fairfield American!

Paul

Photos courtesy The Connecticut Post.

What Makes a Top Ten Day?

Today will probably be the best day of the week. High pressure moving across southwestern Connecticut will deliver plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures with an afternoon high of 80 to 86 degrees, within the range of the normal high of 82 degrees for this time of the year. The wind will be light and variable throughout the day.

That got me thinking. What are the parameters for a Top Ten day? Obviously, it is implied that there will be more than ten days which will qualify for the list every year. Further, the necessary "ingredients" may differ from person-to-person and be somewhat arbitrary, but I decided to create the five most important weather elements for a day to make the Top Ten list.



Sky Cover --- The day should feature mostly clear skies, just like in the photo of Gulf Beach above. Ideally, there shouldn't be any clouds in the sky. Meteorologically, the sky can be classified as clear, having scattered clouds, broken clouds, or overcast clouds. Generally speaking, the sky is mostly clear if more than 90% is cloud-free; the clouds are scattered if 10 to 50% of the sky is covered; broken clouds obscure 50 to 90% of the sky; and overcast clouds cover 90 to 100% of the sky.

Temperature --- Since our daily high and low normal average temperatures are based on 40+ years of climatology and differ with the seasons, a Top Ten day should feature an afternoon temperature within five degrees either side of the normal high for the date. Today, for example, the high temperature will be in the low-to-mid 80s, which is just above the 82-degree normal high for August 7.

Wind --- This is perhaps the most important ingredient for a number of reasons. First of all, the wind direction plays a pivotal role in our weather, especially during the Spring months. Today's wind will be light and variable, all but assuring pleasant weather. There shouldn't be any sustained winds above 15 to 20 miles an hour or strong wind gusts. A moderate breeze is just fine, and that's what we'll have today. The photo below shows calm weather at Gulf Beach in Milford.



Humidity --- The humidity plays an important role in our weather, specifically during the mid Summer months when it can become unbearable. Any time the humidity is below 60% our weather is comfortable, for the most part. As of early-morning, the dew point was a comfortable 61 degrees.



Visibility --- Boaters and pilots need extremely good visibility when they are out on the water or up in the sky. When the sky is mostly clear and the humidity is fairly low, our visibility is better than 20 miles. You can easily see Long Island or part of New York City from the Connecticut shoreline on a day like this. Naturally, when the humidity increases and the air becomes saturated, ground fog develops. That all but obscures our visibility completely.

Today will have all five ingredients for a Top Ten day. What do you look for in a Top Ten day? Do you have your own list of criteria? I'd like to know what you think of my list, too. Feel free to send me an email or make a comment below. I'd sincerely appreciate it.

Have a Top Ten day.

Paul

Starting Summer's Second Half

Yesterday marked the official midpoint of Summer. It had been 46 days since the Summer Solstice, and the Autumn Equinox is 46 days from Sunday. It seems like the Summer is flying by. A powerful cold front approached the region last night, bringing strong thunderstorms, vivid lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain, but today should be sunny, warm, and less humid by afternoon. It should be a nice start to the second half of Summer.

The first 46 days of Summer this year have been much warmer than one year ago. There have been 11 days with a high temperature of 90 degrees or more compared to just six last year. There have been two heat waves this Summer compared to none a year ago. We had one heat wave from June 29 through July 1 with high temperatures of 91, 92, and 92 degrees, respectively. The second heat wave happened June 16 through 18 when the mercury hit 91, 93, and 95 degrees on successive days.

Coincidentally, the first half of last Summer and the first half of this Summer each featured 14 days (30%) with measured rain. Last June had four rainy days from June 21 through June 30, while this June featured five days with measured rain, including four in a row from June 22 through June 25. Last July and this July each featured eight rainy days. Last August (through August 5) had two days with measured rain, while this August has seen just one rainy day.

Another warm day is ahead with afternoon high temperatures reaching well into the 80s. The normal high temperature for this date is 82 degrees, while the record high of 90 was established in 2001. A northwest breeze will bring drier air into the region, and the dew point, which was an oppressive 76 degrees Sunday afternoon, will drop into the 50s later today. Tonight will be mostly clear and much more comfortable with a low temperature of 54 degrees inland and 64 along the immediate shoreline.

The humidity will begin to climb once again by the middle of the week, and there is a threat of showers and thunderstorms later in the week and into the beginning of the weekend. The Dog Days of Summer officially end this Saturday, August 11. The 40-day period when the star Sirius, also known as the Dog Star, rises with the Sun ends this coming Saturday. However, it looks like our weather will improve by the end of the weekend.

Paul

Chalk Up Another Warmer and Wetter-than-Normal Month

The streak lives. The average temperature in July was 77.3 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, which was exactly three degrees above normal. Incredibly, it marked the 17th straight month across southwestern Connecticut with above-average temperatures. July was also the third straight month with more than four inches of rain, continuing a much shorter streak of above-average rainfall.

The average daily temperature each of the first 18 days last month was above normal. Five of the days posted an average temperature at least nine degrees above normal. There were two streaks of four days each with cooler-than-normal temperatures, including July 19 through 23 and July 28 through 31. The warmest temperature last month was 95 degrees on July 18, while the coolest temperature was 61 degrees on July 22. The mercury never dropped below 60 degrees throughout the entire month.

There were nine days last month with a high temperature of 90 degrees or more, including three of the first seven days of July. A heat wave happened July 16 through July 18 with afternoon high temperatures of 91, 93, and 95, respectively. We missed a heat wave by one degree from July 5 through July 7 when the mercury topped 91, 89, and 93 degrees, respectively. Following the heat wave, the temperature eclipsed 90 degrees just once more when a high of 93 degrees happened on July 24.

July also featured more than four inches (4.35") of rain, which was nearly an inch (0.89") above normal. Although there were only eight days with measured rain, nearly two inches (1.97") fell during the monsoon of Saturday, July 28, and nearly an inch (0.94") fell on July 15. Just one of the first 13 days delivered measured rain to the region, but seven of 15 days from July 14 through July 28 featured measured rain and two more days offered a trace rain.

The heat and humidity will build over the next couple of days with nothing more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm through Saturday. Daytime high temperatures will reach well into the 80s to close to 90 degrees inland today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches later Sunday, bringing a better threat of stronger thunderstorms. Any leftover shower or thunder move away Monday, and drier air arrives for the middle of next week.

Paul

Full Sturgeon Moon Happens Just Before Midnight

The nighttime sky was unusually brighter than normal on my way to work early this morning. Although there were some clouds around, the nearly-full Moon illuminated the sky and ground below. It accompanied me on my early-morning drive. The Full Sturgeon Moon happens later this evening at 11:27 p.m. EDT. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of clouds just before midnight as a front pushes through the region.

The photo of the Full Sturgeon Moon above was taken by viewer Ralph Fato last August. Since the Full Moon happens on the first day of the month, there will be another Full Moon by the end of the month. Whenever there are two Full Moons in the same month, the second one is referred to as a Blue Moon. The next Full Moon happens Friday, August 31, at 9:58 a.m. EDT.

So, how did the August Full Moon get its name? The fishing tribes are given credit for naming it, since sturgeon, a large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water, were most readily caught during this month. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because, as the Moon rises, it appears reddish through any sultry haze. It was also called the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon.

Thunder and lightning are quite frequent with Summer storms in August. So, this month’s full Moon also goes by the name of the Lightning Moon for the Summer thunderstorms. Other names given to the Moon in August are the Red Moon and the Dog Moon.

Full Moon names date back to the days of the Native Americans, in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

Pack the umbrella before heading off to work or camp this morning. A front will approach from the West, bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms, but not everybody will get wet. Today's highs will reach close to 80 degrees. The heat and humidity build tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with daytime highs well into the 80s and nighttime lows in the lower 70s.

Paul

August Traditionally Hot & Tropical

The heat and humidity are about to climb just in time for the start of August. Believe it or not, July was the 17th straight warmer-than-normal month across southwestern Connecticut with an average temperature of 77.5 degrees, which was 3.1 degrees above normal. It looks like August will begin in much the same fashion.

You may recall that August of 2010 was much warmer than normal. We experienced a heat wave the last three days of the month, and the average monthly temperature (75.1 degrees) was less than one degree from the record of 76 degrees set in 1955. Six years ago, we christened August with a heat wave when the first three days established record high temperatures of 95, 96, and 97 degrees, respectively, at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford.

Traditionally, August is the second warmest month of the year with a mean average temperature of 73.1 degrees, just behind July's average of 74 degrees, based on 40 years worth of data. The mercury has actually climbed to 100 degrees twice --- on August 9, 2001, and August 27, 1948. In fact, the daily record highs for the month never dip below 90 degrees. The warmest August on record (1955) featured two of the most potent rainstorms on record.

However, there are subtle signs that Summer is in decline over the next four weeks. The normal high temperature falls from 82 degrees on August 1 to 78 degrees by the end of the month. The overall mean temperature drops from 75 degrees to 70 by August 31. In fact, the record low temperature on August 29 is 44 degrees!

Daily sunshine continues to dwindle, too. We'll enjoy 14 hours and 21 minutes of daylight today. But, by the last day of the month, the Sun is out for 13 hours and nine minutes. We lose about an hour and a quarter of daylight over the next 31 days. In fact, sunrise occurs at 6:18 and sets at 7:27 by August 31. Remember, on the first day of Summer, the Sun set at 8:30.

As far as rainfall is concerned, the month averages about 3.75" of precipitation. The wettest August happened in 1952 when 13.29" of rain fell. There have been some drenching rains in August, including 4.66" on August 19, 1991, 4.01" on August 27, 2006, 3.99" on August 11, 2000, 3.92" on August 12, 1955, and 3.69" on August 21, 1952. Remember, we are in the heart of hurricane season, and tropical moisture is always a threat.

Long-time area residents will never forget August of 1955 when two of the most memorable hurricanes --- Connie and Diane --- battered the Northeast. Hurricane Connie soaked New England with torrential rains on August 13, 1955. Just five days later, Tropical Storm Diane followed suit creating massive flooding not seen since the 1930s.

The combination of Connie and Diane yielded rainfall totals close to 25 inches in some areas, resulting in unprecedented flooding. Nearly all of the major rivers in the lower Connecticut Valley exceeded flood stage. Some rivers rose more than 20 feet over their banks. There was tremendous destruction in the Naugatuck River Valley, especially in the city of Ansonia.

Summer officially reaches its halfway point this Saturday, but the trend is for warmer and more humid weather through the upcoming weekend. There aren't any major storms on the horizon, and the tropics are quiet for now. Enjoy the last full month of Summer!

Paul