Winter's Forecast Based on Local Climatology

It certainly was a chilly start to the day. Temperatures fell into the 30s at daybreak in Redding, Easton, Orange, and Woodbridge under clear skies and light winds. Bridgeport's morning low temperature dropped into the lower 40s, much cooler than the 49-degree normal low for this date. Yes, Winter can't be that far off. In fact, the first day of Winter is less than eight weeks away.

So, what kind of Winter can we expect? All signs are pointing to a cold and snowy Winter in the Northeast, based on the North Atlantic Oscillation trend, the jet stream, and developing weather patterns. However, Ralph Fato of Norwalk took it a step further. He decided to research our local climatology and examine if any pattern developed after mild and relatively dry Winters. I'm sure you recall how easy we had it last Winter. The results are quite interesting.

Ralph scoured the record books to find six years which had similar amounts of snowfall as last Winter and then compare that to the following Winter. In every case, the amount of snow the following year was much greater. Just over a foot (13.60") of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford last Winter, well below the 27-inch normal for the season. Take a look at the chart Ralph created and see what happened each of the following six years with similar snow totals to last year's (click the chart to enlarge):

Upon closer inspection, the Winter of 1950-51 had just about the same amount of snow as last year (13.70"), but the following year brought nearly two feet (23.50"). The Winter of 1999-2000 delivered just 13.30" to the region. However, the following year (2000-2001) brought more than four feet (52.2") to southwestern Connecticut. Further, just over a foot (13") of snow fell in 1988-89, but Mother Nature dumped 31.3" the very next year.

The pattern is quite clear. Based on the climate data for southwestern Connecticut, a snowy Winter follows a relatively mild and snow-free one. We don't have any snow to worry about in the near future, but some showers are headed this way later this evening through early tomorrow. Another chance of scattered showers is expected later Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny, dry, and slightly cooler-than-normal. Winter can wait as far as I'm concerned.

Paul 

Rainy Ten-Day Stretch Pushes Yearly Total Above Normal

Early last week I was lamenting the yearly rainfall deficit across southwestern Connecticut. We were running about four-and-a-half inches below normal until the weather pattern dramatically changed. In fact, over a half-foot (6.14") of rain has fallen at Sikorsky Memorial Airport over the last 10 days, highlighted by nearly five inches (4.80") a exactly one week ago. A viewer sent this video of the flooded Stamford Transit Way following last week's heavy rain.



Seven of the last 10 days have featured measured rain, including over a half-inch (0.64") this past Tuesday and just under a half-inch (0.45") yesterday. In fact, three of the first four days this month brought measured rain to southwestern Connecticut. As a result, the annual rainfall total is finally above normal through yesterday. The yearly total (33.31") is almost a half-inch above normal (32.84").

Since September 1, we've received more than eight inches (8.10") of rain, which is more than double the 3.94" normal through yesterday. Fourteen of the 34 days over that stretch saw measured rain, including four of the first eight days of September. Six of the last eight days of last month had measured rain, pushing the monthly total to seven inches, just about double the norm (3.52") for September.

Mother Nature is providing a break from the cloudy and damp weather we've experienced over the last 10 days. However, more rain is in the forecast. An approaching front will bring a few scattered showers later tomorrow afternoon before a wave of low pressure will skirt the New England coast with rain and much cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs will reach the mid-to-upper 70s today but only reach the mid 50s by Sunday.

It's been said that Mother Nature always finds a way to balance everything out, including the rain. That's never been truer than this year. Have a good weekend.

Paul

Today Marks 25th Anniversary of Earliest Snow on Record

We're off to another mild and humid morning with patchy dense fog. Temperatures were well into the 60s before daybreak and will reach the lower 70s this afternoon before a cold front arrives later today. However, it was quite a different story 25 years ago today. The earliest snow on record fell across the Northeast, delivering up to a foot of snow in parts of Vermont and even a half-inch along the Connecticut shoreline at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford.

The storm knocked out power to more than 300,000 homes. Remember, many trees still had their leaves at this time of the year, which was a major contributing factor to the number of fallen trees and limbs, many of which took down power lines. The snow-to-liquid ratio was 3.5 to 1. The hardest hit areas were Dutchess, Ulster, and Columbia counties in New York, where power was out for as much as two weeks. Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Dutchess, Greene, and Montgomery counties were declared disaster areas. Take a look at the satellite image from October 4, 1987, at 11 a.m.

The storm was caused by a collision of cold and wet air masses. Coastal areas of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey were lashed by a cold rain, which eventually turned to snow, but were spared heavy snowfall as temperatures held in the 40s. The National Weather Service reported snow accumulations of up to 20 inches in upstate New York, 18 inches in Western Massachusetts, 12 inches in parts of Vermont, and nine inches in upstate Connecticut. Even the Northwest corner of New Jersey reported three inches of snow.

According to a New York Times article, "For thousands of people, it was a day to go nowhere and to do nothing, a day without power, heat, or television, or visitors, with time to look out the window at the tapestries of falling snow and silent woodlands." Connecticut had 77,000 homes without power as utility crews labored throughout the day. Snow removal efforts were handicapped because trucks had not yet been fitted with plows, and eventual melting was expected to do the job.

At least two deaths were attributed to the storm. The victims were killed by falling trees. Scores of minor traffic accidents were reported across the region, and Metro North trains were stranded for as much as two hours on some routes. The snow began late Saturday night, October 3, in some areas, and moved East where it continued throughout Sunday morning, October 4. The precipitation eventually tapered off by early-to-mid afternoon.

Paul

Welcome to October

October is my favorite month of the year for a variety of reasons. Naturally, we begin to experience Autumn across southwestern Connecticut, and the pleasant temperatures afford us the opportunity to enjoy the many outdoor activities planned throughout the month. Whether it be a hayride with the family, a visit to a pumpkin patch, or a seat at the local high school football game, October is just about the ideal month to be outside.

However, last October was anything but quiet and was one for the record books. An unusual early Autumn Nor'easter delivered record-breaking October snow and massive power outages across Connecticut the weekend of October 29 and 30. By the time the storm pulled away, over a foot of snow fell across much of Northern Fairfield County, and four inches blanketed Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, making Saturday, October 29, the snowiest October day on record.

Many trees and tree branches came crashing down due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow, the leaves still on the trees, and the gusty winds. There were more than 760,000 customers of Connecticut Light and Power and 9,000 United Illuminating customers without power Monday morning, October 31. Many school systems were closed or had delayed openings Halloween morning.

The snow totals were unbelievable for October. Danbury reported 17 inches of snow, while Ridgefield (15.5") and Shelton (12.8") received over a foot. Locally, Wilton (10.8"), New Canaan (6.0"), Norwalk (5.5"), and Bridgeport (4.0") also had record-breaking snow. Viewer Ralph Fato of Norwalk sent this photo of the Route 7 connector Saturday afternoon, October 29.

Temperatures begin to cool dramatically throughout the month. In fact, the average daily mean temperature at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford falls from 60 degrees October 1 to 50 degrees by Halloween. The average daily high temperature drops from 69 degrees to 58 degrees, and the overnight low cools from 52 degrees to 42 by the end of the month.

The warmest temperature ever recorded in October in southwestern Connecticut was 89 degrees, which was set October 8 of 2007. That broke the previous mark of 86 degrees set on October 6, 1997. It occurred one day after another record high of 78 degrees was established on October 7, 2007. The mercury also hit 85 degrees on October 10, 1949.

The warmest October on record, not surprisingly, happened four years ago (2007) when the mercury averaged 61.8 degrees, breaking the previous mark of 60.2 degrees in 1971. The coldest Octobers on record were in 1981 and 1988 when the temperature averaged 50.5 degrees. The coldest temperature ever recorded for the month was 26 degrees, set three times, most recently on Halloween of 1988. The other two times were on October 24, 1969, and October 20, 1972.

October’s average rainfall is 3.54 inches. The wettest October ever recorded happened in 1955 when 10.72 inches fell across southwestern Connecticut. On three occasions over four inches of rain fell in one day: October 7, 1972 (4.14″), October 15, 1955 (4.76″), and October 19, 1996 (4.12″). The driest October (0.33″) happened in 1963.

Daylight dramatically decreases during the month. October 1 we enjoy 11 hours and 45 minutes of daylight. The Sun rises at 5:49 and sets at 5:34. However, by the middle of the month, October 15, the Sun rises at 6:04 and sets at 5:12. By Halloween, after the return to standard time, we only have 10 hours and 26 minutes of daylight. Sunrise happens at 5:23 while it sets at 4:49 in the afternoon.

We don’t “fall back” to Eastern Standard Time until Sunday morning, November 4, at 2 o’clock. That’s when we set our clocks back one hour and gain one extra hour of sleep. Daylight Saving Time was extended for one month beginning in 2007 as a result of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. So, the Halloween trick-or-treaters will get one extra hour of daylight in the evening.

Happy October!

Paul

Full Harvest Moon This Weekend

You've probably been noticing the waxing Moon each night this week. This morning, however, the Moon is hiding behind the clouds as a storm system will bring periods of rain and a possible thunderstorm to the region, and that will be the weather theme for much of today. We certainly do need the rain, since the yearly rainfall deficit is greater than four inches. The rain should exit later tonight, just in time to see glimpses of the Full Harvest Moon, which happens tomorrow evening, September 29, at 11:19 p.m. EDT.

The Full Harvest Moon comes closest to the Autumnal Equinox, which happened exactly one week ago tomorrow, Saturday, September 22. Generally, the Harvest Moon falls in September two out of every three years, and this year is one of them. As you may have guessed, the origin of the name comes from the fact that at the peak of harvest, farmers can work late into the night by the light of this Moon.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans, of what is now the northern and eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

The Harvest Moon was the only Full Moon given the same name by both the English name and by the Native Americans. This Full Moon falls during the crop harvest before the Winter winds arrive. As days continue to grow shorter, farmers could work on into the evening with the light of the bright Full Moon rising in the East. Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans, and wild rice the chief India staples, are now ready for gathering.

Usually the Full Moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the Moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night, just 25 to 30 minutes later across the United States, and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe.

We may see some peaks of the Full Harvest Moon tomorrow night, but clouds will be prevalent for much of the upcoming weekend. A storm system will bring periods of rain and a possible thunderstorm to southwestern Connecticut today, but tomorrow will be primarily dry under mostly cloudy skies and occasional sunshine. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers, but the weekend won't be a washout at all.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

Today Marks the 27th Anniversary of Unforgettable Hurricane Gloria

The tropics are fairly quiet this morning, and we haven't had much to worry about so far this year. However, that wasn't the case 27 years ago today. That's when southwestern Connecticut residents were bracing for Hurricane Gloria, which caused significant damage and destruction to the Northeast the next day.

I was a rookie educator at the time, having just secured my first position as a seventh grade teacher in a self-contained classroom at a private school in New Haven. Weather was my passion, naturally, and I was able to share my excitement at the upcoming storm. Just three weeks into the profession, I received a week's vacation unexpectedly.

I was also a weekend newscaster and disc jockey at WMMM radio in Westport. I received a phone call from program director Gary Zenobia just after I returned home from school on Thursday afternoon requesting that I host an overnight newscast to inform our listeners about the impending storm and emergency measures which may have to be taken. WMMM was a daytime-only station, meaning it was on the air during daylight hours and signed off at sunset, but this time it was granted an exception by the Federal Communications Commission.

As my family was applying tape to picture windows, securing lawn furniture, stocking up on non-perishable food, and checking batteries for flashlights and portable radios, I was packing a bag for my overnight stay at the radio station. We had a few reporters "on location" at various shelters throughout town, and then-First Selectman William Seiden joined me on the air most of the night to reassure listeners that their safety was our primary concern.

The overnight hours were anxious moments for all of us as we awaited the arrival of the storm. Local shelters began to fill up quickly, and I remember answering the telephone every couple of minutes from town residents who were sharing their concerns and fears. Gloria struck fast and furiously. The hurricane hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane early the next day. At the time of landfall on Long Island, Gloria had sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, while rapidly moving forward at 35 miles per hour.

This combination of sustained winds and rapid forward motion produced major hurricane conditions and gusts to 115 mph across a narrow area of Eastern Long Island, New York. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was still the most damaging hurricane to strike the state since Carol in 1954. The rain began overnight, and before long the winds became a serious matter.

As the morning wore on, Gloria continued to accelerate northward off the Eastern seaboard, brushing the coastlines of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey with hurricane-force gusts. Later that morning, Gloria finally crossed the coast of the United States mainland near western Long Island about 10-miles East of Kennedy International Airport. Passing over central Long Island, Gloria crossed the Connecticut coast near Bridgeport about 40 minutes later with sustained winds of 80 mph. By that time, I was already home, but there was no way I was going to go to sleep.

I vividly remember the eye of the hurricane passing almost directly overhead by midday. That's when the skies cleared, the winds calmed dramatically, and the damage was plainly visible. Downed trees, power lines, and debris scattered just about everywhere greeted us as we stepped outside. Naturally, the power was out, too, and we remained "in the dark" for almost six days. Needless to say, I didn't have to worry about any lesson plans for quite awhile.

There were very few wind reports near the area of landfall in New York and Connecticut due to the complete evacuation of Coast Guard personnel from stations across the region. The strongest official wind gust recorded on Long Island was 84 mph at Islip. In Connecticut, the National Weather Service at Sikorsky Airport in Stratford recorded sustained winds of 74 mph with a gust to 92 mph.

A barometric pressure of 28.37 inches was measured by aircraft when Gloria crossed Long Island. The National Weather Service at Kennedy International Airport recorded a minimum pressure of 28.57 inches, while Sikorsky Airport in Bridgeport, Connecticut, recorded a low pressure of 28.47 inches. This was the lowest barometric pressure recorded in Connecticut and New York since Donna in 1960, 25 years earlier.

Gloria produced weak Category Two hurricane conditions across southwestern Connecticut. The storm continued to lose intensity as it passed over Long Island. Peak wind gusts in south-central and southeastern Connecticut were close to 95 mph as the tropical cyclone swept over the region. The metropolitan New Haven area was hit with wind gusts of 90 mph and heavy rain. There were only a few reports of minimal structural damage in southwestern Connecticut. Tree damage in Connecticut was heavy within 10 to 20 miles of the coast, and along the coast from around Bridgeport to New London.

By late Friday afternoon, the storm was long gone, but the cleanup was just staring. Since the power was out, my family and I headed to nearby Bridgeport to have dinner at a restaurant which was operating on emergency generators. I still think of Gloria whenever I drive past that restaurant. In fact, I still have my framed certificate from Mr. Seiden thanking me for my service to Westport. It was a storm I'll never forget.

Paul