Wettest November on Record Happened 40 Years Ago

Even though we've experienced two historic storms over the last two weeks, we've only had two days with any measured rain thus far this month. Just under three quarters of an inch of rain fell November 7 (0.45") and November 8 (0.25") combined, leaving us below normal in the rain gauge this month. Rain is expected Tuesday morning as a cold front arrives, but the remainder of the week will be mostly sunny and cooler.

However, 40 years ago today, the weather picture was quite different across southwestern Connecticut. Residents were recovering after a drenching rain and wind storm. Winds gusted to 67 miles-an-hour and over three inches of rain fell across the region, causing broken windows, downed trees, power outages, and significant property damage. It was the first of two significant rainstorms within a week during the wettest November on record.

Nearly a foot of rain (10.22") fell during November of 1972, establishing an all-time record for the month. Consider that the normal average rain for the entire month is 3.65 inches. This November, by contrast, nine of the first 10 days were completely dry. The November 8, 1972 storm delivered 3.04 inches of rain. Just six days later, November 14, nearly three more inches (2.84") soaked the area.

According to the Thursday, November 9, 1972 edition of The Bridgeport Post, "The full force of the coastal storm struck between 2 and 4 o'clock yesterday, slowing traffic on the Connecticut Turnpike and the Merritt Parkway, as the wind-driven rain cut visibility sharply. Public Works Department crews in Bridgeport and across the county were kept busy throughout the afternoon and evening cleaning up fallen tree limbs and branches."



The report stated that the worst electrical interruptions occurred in Norwalk and New Canaan, where 2,600 customers of the Connecticut Light and Power Company were without electricity for varying amounts of time yesterday afternoon and last night. The United Illuminating Company reported a large number of small power failures, resulting from wind gusts, but no major power interruption.

According to the newspaper account, in Milford, a wind gust sent a beach umbrella high in the air and smashed it down on a police patrol car at 2:30 p.m. at Yale Avenue and Easy Street. The policeman said he was unable to avoid the umbrella. It damaged the patrol car's searchlight and left fender, and a moment later struck a parked car anb flew off. Smashed display windows were plentiful as wind gusts reached gale level. One gust of wind peeled off a 30-foot section of a new roof on the Pleasure Beach ballroom.



This November is quite different from the soaker we experienced back in 1972. After Tuesday's morning rain, the next threat of any rain won't happen until early next week when a stalled coastal storm may bring rain and wind to the Northeast.

Paul

Nor'easter Snow Video

I took this video of the snowstorm outside my home, Wednesday afternoon, November 7, 2012.


November 7, 2012, Nor'easter by PaulWXman

Paul

Classic Nor'easter Brings Record-Breaking Snow to Region

Just nine days after Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of southwestern Connecticut, especially shoreline communities, a classic Nor'easter brought gusty winds, cold temperatures, and record-breaking snow to southwestern Connecticut. The snow began falling late yesterday morning as the storm exploded, causing bands of moderate-to-heavy snow to fall the rest of the day and through the night.

Officially, Sikorsky Memorial Airport recorded 5.4 inches of snow yesterday, which was a record for the date and the second snowiest November day on record. More than a half-foot of snow (6.2 inches) fell on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 23, 1989. Three inches of snow fell as recently as November 27, 2002, but nothing quite like what we experienced over the last 24 hours. The photos are courtesy of Ralph Fato in Norwalk.

Here are some snowfall totals from across southwestern Connecticut:

• Monroe: 11.5"
• Danbury: 9.9"
• Bridgeport: 8.0"
• Ridgefield: 8.0"
• Darien: 7.9"
• Greenwich: 6.0"
• Trumbull: 6.0"
• New Canaan: 6.0"
• Norwalk: 5.8"
• Stamford: 5.3"

A strong North wind continued to pull colder air into much of New England throughout the day. Yesterday's high temperature of 39 degrees happened at 10:21 a.m. By mid-afternoon, the mercury had dropped into the low-to-mid 30s, causing the precipitation to fall as heavy wet snow. The low temperature fell to 31 degrees at 8:24 p.m. The normal high and low temperatures for November 7 are 56 and 40 degrees, respectively. Wednesday's average temperature of 35 degrees was 13 degrees colder than the normal average of 48.

Initially, it appeared the storm would be more of a wind-maker rather than a snow-maker, as computer models pushed the center of the storm farther to the East. However, the winds never reached the 50-mph forecast gusts which were anticipated. The highest wind gust at Sikorsky Airport was 36 miles per hour out of the North, and the highest wind speed was 29 miles an hour. The average wind speed yesterday was 19.2 miles an hour.

Fortunately, our weather picture will improve over the next couple of days, and the Veteran's Day holiday weekend is shaping up to be mostly sunny and warmer. The rest of today will be cloudy, breezy, and chilly with a high of 44 degrees. Tonight will be partly cloudy and cold with lows of 27 to 32. Tomorrow will be sunny and milder with a high near 50. Plenty of sunshine is expected Sunday & Monday with daytime highs into the lower 60s each afternoon.

Paul

Weather Plays a Role in Election Outcomes

Election Day is tomorrow. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Fortunately, the weather will cooperate. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high temperature in the middle 40s. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. By tomorrow night we'll know who the next President, United States Senator, and local legislators will be. There are many other races on the ballot, too. Make sure you cast your vote and then watch News 12 Connecticut Tuesday evening at 8 o'clock for the results, reaction, and analysis.

Paul

Hurricane Sandy Satellite Loop

This is the GOES satellite loop for Hurricane Sandy from the Caribbean to Canada from October 23 to November 3.

Paul

November by the Numbers

Hurricane Sandy is long gone, but its effects will be felt for quite some time. Many people are still without power today, including those in homes and businesses throughout southwestern Connecticut. Now, it's time to look ahead to November and how the month shapes up climatologically. Don't forget to "fall back" this weekend. Standard Time begins this coming Sunday morning, November 4, at 2 o'clock.

Snow is certainly not out of the question during this month. Perhaps the most memorable Thanksgiving Day in recent memory occured in 1989 when over a half-foot of snow fell that day. The snow began falling shortly after midnight, and by the time it ended late Thanksgiving afternoon, it was the biggest single-day snow event in November.

Snow also fell twice in 1995, including 2.4 inches on November 29 of that year. That was the snowiest Winter on record across southwestern Connecticut. Another "snowstorm" of note happened on November 6 and 7 of 1953 when a combined 5.4 inches fell. However, the average snow for the month is only 0.6 inches.

November can also be a wet month, too. The most precipitation in November occured in 1972 when 10.22 inches were recorded. There have also been some impressive single-day totals, including 3.12" (Nov. 2, 1954), 3.04" (1972), and 2.91" (Nov. 10, 1948). The average precipitation for the month is 3.81 inches, ranking it fourth behind March, May, and April as the wettest months of the year. The driest November happened 36 years ago when only 0.36" fell in 1976.

We begin to experience a dramatic decline in average temperatures, too. At the start of the month, the normal high and low are 59 and 43 degrees, respectively. However, by month's end, the normals are 47 and 33. That's an 11-degree drop in the mean temperature. The average high temperature is 53 degrees, while the average low for the month is 38.2 degrees.

The warmest November on record occured in 1975 when the average temperature was a relatively balmy 50.5 degrees. The coldest November happened 15 years ago, in 1996, when the mercury averaged 40.7 degrees. Although the temperature has never officially reached 80 degrees at the airport during the month, we've come close a few times. The warmest single day reading was 78 degrees which happened twice, on Nov. 4, 1975, and Nov. 15, 1993. Other notable warm days include 77 degrees (Nov. 2, 1950), and 72 degrees (Nov. 5, 1961).

The length of daylight continues to decrease with each passing day. We're a little more than seven weeks from the Winter Solstice, which is the shortest day of the year. By the middle of the month, Sunrise and Sunset are at 6:41 a.m. and 4:33 p.m., respectively. By the last day of the month, the Sun rises at 6:58 in the morning and sets at 4:24 in the afternoon. That's only one minute later than the earliest Sunset, at 4:23, in early-to-mid December.

The Full Beaver Moon happens November 28 at 9:46 a.m. EST. Why the Beaver Moon? This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

Welcome to November.

Paul