Full Beaver Moon to Shine Brightly Tonight

Now that our latest storm system has exited the region, high pressure will return today paving the way for a mostly clear and quite cold night. The Full Beaver Moon (9:46 a.m.) will shine brightly this evening after it rises at 4:40 p.m. However, temperatures will fall in a hurry as winds relax and dry air arrives. Tonight's lows will drop into the 20s across much of the region.

November's Full Moon is so named because this was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm Winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for Winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

During the late 1800s, beavers were almost hunted to extinction by the white trappers and traders, because the beaver pelt became a very fashionable wardrobe accessory, especially for men's top hats in Europe and in New England. Since that time they have greatly increased in number and in the amount of damage that they cause during the building of their dams and dens.

Are you aware that a single beaver may chew down hundreds of trees every year as he continuously builds and repairs his lodges and dams? The beavers do provide habitat for other animals such as ducks and otters, but they can also cause unexpected large-scale floods.



Over ten years ago in the Washington, D.C. tidal basin, where many of the famous ornamental cherry trees bloom drawing tourists from all over the world, a family of beavers moved into the "luxurious digs." The beavers were noticed as soon as they began downing cherry trees to build their lodges. The National Park Service Rangers quickly set live humane traps and moved the family of pesky beavers to another area where the trees were not as famous or rare.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

As far as our weather goes, today will feature partly sunny skies, but it will be breezy and chilly with a high temperature in the low-to-mid 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the 20s to close to 30 degrees along the shoreline. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high once again in the lower 40s. Enjoy the Full Beaver Moon.

Paul

Thanksgiving Day to Bring Feast from Mother Nature

We're on a Thanksgiving weather winning streak! Another pleasant Thanksgiving Day is shaping up to be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with afternoon high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s. This will be the fourth dry Thanksgiving Day in the last five years. The only blemish during the streak happened two years ago when light rain fell on Thanksgiving Day, bringing four-hundredths of an inch of precipitation to the region.

Obviously, with the date of Thanksgiving fluctuating from year to year, the weather can be very different from one year to the next. We've experienced a record-breaking rainstorm, record-setting snowstorm, unseasonably mild temperatures, and strong, gusty winds over the last 25 years on Thanksgiving Day. However, the two most memorable storms happened in 2006 and 1989.

The most memorable Thanksgiving Day over the last 25 years occurred on November 23, 1989. That's when over a half-foot of snow fell across southwestern Connecticut, marking the snowiest Thanksgiving on record in these parts. In fact, the snow began falling the night before, creating a nightmare at airports, bus depots, and roadways on the heaviest travel day of the year.

Officially, 6.2 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport. Coupled with the nearly half-inch that fell the night before, just about seven inches of snow blanketed the region. It was the snowiest November day on record until this month's Nor'easter brought 8.3 inches of snow to the region. Remember, the average snowfall for the entire month based on 40 years of climatology is less than an inch (0.7").

Seventeen years later to the exact day, nearly two inches of rain (1.84") fell during Thanksgiving Day, November 23, 2006, with most of it coming during the mid-to-late morning hours. That's over half the normal average rain for the entire month. I was the emcee at Fairfield Warde High School's halftime ceremony during the Mustangs' football game against arch-rival Fairfield Ludlowe. The gala event included the field dedication ceremony and 50th anniversary celebration of the opening of the school.

If you're counting, 11 of the last 24 Thanksgivings have produced measured rain locally, including a streak of four in a row from 2004 through 2007. The longest dry stretch was four years, from 2000 through 2003. Nearly an inch of rain fell on Thanksgiving Day 1998, and just about a half-inch was recorded the following year in 1999. Just a trace of rain fell three years ago, November 26, 2009.



In fact, over the last 50 years, the numbers are strikingly similar. Measured rain has been recorded 24 times on Thanksgiving Day, or just about 50 percent of the time. As for the warmest Thanksgiving Day in recent memory, the mercury climbed to 69 degrees at Central Park in New York City on November 29, 1990, establishing a record high for the date. The coldest Thanksgiving morning in the last 20 years happened on November 28, 1996, when the temperature fell to 23 degrees.

Paul

Glancing at the Snowy Record Book

The recent Nor'easter, which happened just nine days after Hurricane Sandy, delivered record snow to much of the Northeast. Officially, 8.3 of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on November 7 and 8, making it the snowiest November on record. The previous record happened 23 years ago, when a Thanksgiving storm brought over a half-foot of snow (6.6") on November 22 and 23, 1989, to the region. Consider that the normal average snowfall for the entire month is 0.6 inches.

Local climatologist Ralph Fato of Norwalk examined the record books and found that the Nor'easter brought the most November snow to the region in more than 61 years. However, what makes this year's snow even more impressive is that it happened well before Thanksgiving. In addition to Sikorsky's record snow, the official snow totals from the storm included 6.2" at Newark Airport and 4.3" at Kennedy Airport in New York.

According to Ralph, prior to this year's Nor'easter, the most snow for the month of November over the last 61 years at Newark Airport was 5.7" and 3.7" at Kennedy Airport on November 22 and 23, 1989. A quick glance at the record book for Sikorky Airport shows that there are only two other dates during the entire month on which at least three inches of snow fell. They include November 6, 1953 (3.4") and November 27, 2002 (3.0").

Take a look at the following graph which Ralph prepared. It shows National Weather Service data since 1950 for six coastal cities. The graph illustrates how the snowfall totals add up per decade. The average for an entire decade is highlighted by the first bar in black. Please note that the decade starts on the "0" year, ie: 1950-1959. Click the graph to enlarge it.

What is most striking is that coastal Connecticut needs just 58 inches of snow this decade to eclipse the total for the entire decade of the 1980s. Yes, there are still seven years remaining in this decade. Remember, the normal average snowfall is 27" at Sikorsky Airport.

In addition, this decade, Philadelphia has accumulated more snow than Chicago and Denver and has the same amount as Minneapolis. The "City of Brotherly Love" needs just 26 more inches of snow to beat the entire decade of the 1950s.

Baltimore needs just 55” of snow to have more than the entire decade of the 1950s. In fact, Baltimore needs the same amount of snow they have this decade (92”) to beat every single decade since the 1950s, with the exception of the 1960s.

Here are some additional interesting findings from Ralph's research:

* Since the 1980s, New York City and Bridgeport have been receiving more snow per decade;

* The last decade with below-normal snowfall in Boston was the 1980s;

* Washington, D.C. has not had an above-normal snowfall decade since the 1980s;

* Baltimore has not had an above-normal snowfall decade since the 1960s.

Special thanks to Ralph Fato for this compelling research. I found it quite interesting. I appreciate it, Ralph.

Paul

Leonid Meteors to be Active Early Tuesday Morning

The following was written by News 12 Westchester meteorologist and astronomer Joe Rao:

This is the time for the Leonids meteors, that middle-of-November, middle-of-the night celestial light show. These ultra-swift light streaks appear to emanate from out of the constellation of Leo (hence the name, “Leonid”), which begins to rise in the northeast around 11 p.m., then gradually ascends the sky, remaining in view for the balance of the night.

The meteors usually reach their peak each year on Nov. 17 or 18 as Earth travels through streams of dust left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle. Tempel-Tuttle orbits the Sun every 33-years, and during its closest approach the heat of the Sun causes some of the comet’s ice to bubble off, taking some dusty debris with it; stray bits of comet matter that go whipping through the solar system.

The average Leonid that is visible to the naked eye, is scarcely larger than a grain of sand. We know them best when they reach the Earth’s upper atmosphere and flare into streaks of light from friction with the rarefied air. They enter with an immense velocity—45 miles per second, or 162,000 miles per hour—and its kinetic energy is used up in such processes as the instantaneous production of light, heat and ionization.

Thus, such a small particle can be seen as a “shooting star” from more than 100 miles away. Obviously, however, it's really the light energy that it develops and not the particle itself that we see.

This year the best time to look for the Leonids will not be on the traditional nights of Nov. 17 or 18, but rather in the early morning hours of Tuesday, Nov. 20. Two reputable experts in the field of meteor science, Jeremie Vaubaillion of France and Mikhail Maslov of Russia, have independently calculated that the Earth is on target to pass directly through a small clump of dust that was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle when it swept around the Sun back in the year 1400. That interaction is to occur between 12:30 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. EST.
 

But don’t expect a tremendous number of meteors. Maslov, in fact, doesn’t think there will be no more than 15 to 20 Leonids per hour as seen from a dark sky location; even less if you trying to watch from a brightly-lit city.

So why bother looking at all? In this case, it isn’t quantity, but quality.

When a comet releases particles into space most are indeed the size of dust and sand grains, but there are also some larger pieces too, ranging from pebble size to perhaps a child’s marble. Those kind of pieces can create outstandingly bright meteors—called “fireballs”—perhaps even meteors that explode in their flight across the sky—called “bolides.”

After a number of revolutions around the Sun, most of the dust-sized particles become dispersed so only the larger pieces remain. In the case of the clump of particles shed by Tempel-Tuttle in 1400, it has circled the Sun 18 times. So if there’s anything left out there in space, there should at least be some of those larger pebble-sized pieces.

If so, then during that 3- or 4-hour interval beginning soon after midnight on Tuesday morning, there’s a “chance” that we might be treated to a few of those types of meteors. The Leonids are well-known for leaving particularly long-enduring incandescent trains, sometimes lingering for many seconds or even minutes. With binoculars you can see these trains drifting against the backdrop of stars, indicative of swift winds in the very high atmosphere.

If you plan to watch, here are a couple of tips: Make sure to stay warm and get comfortable. Should you have a lawn chair that reclines, use it during your search for Leonid meteors since it will help keep your neck from getting stiff as well as make it easier to look at the night sky.

Just seeing one of those dazzlers will make your whole night. Hopefully, nature will be in a show-off mood in the predawn hours of Tuesday.

Shorter Days Lead to Seasonal Affective Disorder

After 18-and-a-half years of working the early-morning shift, I suppose I’ve gotten used to getting up and driving to work in the dark. However, I have an especially difficult time with the Sun setting so early in the afternoon. It seems that there is very little time to do anything outside before it gets dark. In fact, one of the late buses from our neighborhood school arrived just before 5 o’clock last night when it was completely dark out. I don’t like it.

Those who work the 9-to-5 shift are coming home in the dark now. Sunset this afternoon is at 4:33. And, it only gets earlier over the month. By the end of the month, Sunset is at 4:24. The earliest time the Sun sets at our latitude is 4:23 in early December. That is a striking contrast to late June, when the latest Sunset in southwestern Connecticut happens at 8:30.

Psychologically, the darker afternoons and evenings affect many people. You’ve no doubt heard about Seasonal Affective Disorder. According to the National Mental Health Association, some people suffer from symptoms of depression during the Winter months, with those symptoms subsiding during the Spring and Summer. This may be a sign of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). SAD is a mood disorder associated with depression episodes and related to seasonal variations of light.

How does SAD affect people? People with the disorder frequently experience the following:

• Sleep problems – oversleeping but not refreshed, cannot get out of bed, needing a nap in the afternoon
• Overeating – carbohydrate craving leading to weight gain
• Depression, despair, misery, guilt, anxiety – normal tasks become frustratingly difficult
• Family / social problems – avoiding company, irritability, loss of libido, loss of feeling
• Lethargy – too tired to cope, everything an effort
• Physical symptoms – often joint pain or stomach problems, lowered resistance to infection
• Behavioral problems – especially in young people

Melatonin, a sleep-related hormone secreted by the pineal gland in the brain, has been linked to SAD. This hormone, which may cause symptoms of depression, is produced at increased levels in the dark. Therefore, when the days are shorter and darker the production of this hormone increases.

Phototherapy or bright light therapy has been shown to suppress the brain’s secretion of melatonin. Although, there have been no research findings to definitely link this therapy with an antidepressant effect, many people respond to this treatment.

I admit, the early darkness always shocks me in early November. Remember, it was just over two months ago we were still enjoying Summer and relatively brighter evenings. The Sun set at 7:25 on the first day of September. Seemingly, in the blink of an eye, we’re just about five weeks from the first day of Winter. Yeah, it’s a bummer, to be sure.

Personally, the only positive about the longer nights is the relative ease of falling asleep. I actually feel as though I should be going to bed at 8 p.m., even though it’s an early time by most people’s standards. During the Summer, it’s virtually impossible to fall asleep when the Sun is still shining, my son is playing, and I hear people laughing and talking outside. I actually embrace the darker evenings for that reason alone. After all, the 2 o’clock alarm is not a “friend,” no matter the time of the year.

So, if you don’t enjoy the shorter days and longer nights, we have about a month before the length of daylight begins to increase once again. The first day of Winter is technically “the shortest day of the year.” Before you know it, the evenings will start getting a little brighter once more.

It can’t get here fast enough!

Paul

Possible Coastal Storm Next Week

It's not time to panic just yet, but there is the potential for a prolonged coastal storm early next week. The two main weather models --- the European and the Global Forecast System --- have fashioned two completely different scenarios for next week. The Euro, which picked up on Hurricane Sandy more than a week before its arrival, has been the more accurate of the two. It shows the Northeast getting blasted for a prolonged period of time through the middle of next week. Click on the image to enlarge it.

Take a look at each of the different panels. The storm is just taking shape late Sunday, but by Monday evening, the center of low pressure begins to move North along the Atlantic coast. A steep pressure gradient develops between the low to the South and the high pressure system to the North and East, delivering a gusty East wind. That's certainly not good news for Long Island Sound and the coastal communities.

The GFS model, which didn't pick up on Sandy until much later, takes the center of the storm out to sea to the East. By Monday evening (Tuesday 00Z), the center of the storm has moved well to the East, and the gusty winds are just offshore. By Tuesday evening, the storm slowly pulls away to the East, and a drier North wind develops. Take a look at each of the panels.

Naturally, next week is the busiest travel week of the year. We'll certainly have a better gauge on the track of the storm by the end of this week. Fortunately, the local weather picture is fairly quiet the rest of the week and through the upcoming weekend. Today will be mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly with a high temperature in the mid-to-upper 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with a low of 24 to 33 degrees. Make sure you bundle up before you head outside today.

Paul