Dreaming of a White Christmas

The Winter Solstice is less than two weeks away, and Christmas is just 16 days from now. Not surprisingly, many people have asked me about the odds of seeing a "White Christmas." Light snow is expected by mid-morning through mid-afternoon tomorrow, and one-to-two inches are possible by tomorrow evening. Another storm is possible by Saturday.

So, what are the chances of snow by Christmas? Here in southwestern Connecticut, weather records have been kept for a long time. Our climatology is based on record-keeping over a 40-year period. Based on history, shoreline communities such as Stamford, Darien, Stratford, and Milford have a 30% chance of seeing at least one inch of snow on the ground by December 25. There's a 10% chance of at least five inches of snow on the ground by then. However, we have a zero percent probability of having ten inches of snow or more on our front lawns by Christmas morning.

Inland, the odds are more favorable. People living north of the Merritt or Wilbur Cross parkways have a 57% chance of at least one inch of snow for Christmas. The odds are slightly lower than one-in-four (23%) for five inches of snow, and quite slim (3%) for at least ten inches of snow. However, residents in Wilton, Redding, Easton, and Woodbridge have a much better opportunity of seeing snow on the ground than their shoreline counterparts.

As far as the rest of New England is concerned, the chance of a white Christmas gets even better. Northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts have about a 40 to 60% chance of at least one inch of snow; central New England's chances improve to 60 to 80 percent; and northern New England (80 to 100%) is virtualy assured of having a White Christmas.

One of the more memorable snowstorms which occured in late December was the Christmas Eve storm of 1966. We received over a half-foot of snow (6.9"), making roads quite slippery and travel very difficult. I distinctly remember my family on our way to visit my grandmother in the snow, but my parents deciding the drive wasn't worth the risk. We turned around and headed for home, but the car slid several times on the snowy roadways.

You may recall the snowstorm which delivered more than nine inches of snow to southwestern Connecticut the weekend of December 19 and 20, 2009. The snow began late Saturday evening, and six inches had accumulated by midnight. The snow tapered off early Sunday morning, but not before another 3.2 inches caused headaches for holiday shoppers the last weekend before Christmas.

Another recent snow occurred on Christmas Day, 2002. Some light snow happened early that morning, but a steadier and heavier snow developed by later in the afternoon and evening. The snow totals were quite impressive locally. Darien received 10 inches of snow by the time the storm exited the following day. Redding (9.5"), New Canaan (9.2"), Norwalk (7.0"), Greenwich (7.0"), and Westport (6.5") each saw at least a half-foot of snow!

On the flip side, I'm sure you recall December of  2006. The afternoon high temperatures from December 23 to 26 reached 58, 52, 44, and 50 degrees respectively, well above the 38-degree normal high. Over an inch of rain fell December 23 (1.15") and over a quarter-inch (0.28") was recorded on Christmas Day. We were left dreaming of snow for quite some time.

Paul

LIVE Weathercast from Fairfield Woods Middle School

The sixth-graders at Fairfield Woods Middle School took part in a LIVE weather forecast from their school, Wednesday morning, December 5, 2012.

 

Paul

Surprise Snowstorm Hit Region 55 Years Ago Today

"They sure don't make 'em like they used to." How many times have you heard somebody say that? It applies to just about everything these days, especially our weather. Did you know that 55 years ago today a snowstorm virtually paralyzed southwestern Connecticut? Just about a half-foot of snow fell across the region, catching most everybody, including commuters and holiday shoppers, by surprise.

Officially, 5.1 inches of snow fell in Bridgeport on Wednesday, December 4, 1957, causing one of the greatest traffic jams in that city, according to The Bridgeport Post. The front-page article said that "Downtown streets were clogged with stalled traffic. The bumper-to-bumper situation persisted for five hours, delaying thousands of homeward-bound workers."



Many people were stranded temporarily when rides failed to show or scheduled buses ran well behind schedule. Bus lines and taxis reported many extra customers, but the traffic jam prevented them from reaching their destinations promptly. The New Haven Railroad reported that commuter trains were jammed all evening, but there were no train delays blamed on the storm.

Slowed to a snail's pace by the blinding snow, it took motorists an hour to an hour-and-a-half to travel from downtown Bridgeport to North Avenue. The greatest difficulty was crossing intersections clogged by autos inching along bumper-to-bumper. Cars standing in traffic for a prolonged period of time ran out of gas, adding to the confusion. Police noted numerous instances of car batteries and lights failing as cars stalled at intersections.



The weather bureau said a combination of unusual conditions caused the storm to pause at midday and strengthen a few hours later. The storm's intensification caught many people off guard and unprepared. The rapidly-falling snow created skidding hazards and all but erased the effects of the Department of Public Works' sanding operations earlier in the day.

The snowfall was the greatest in Bridgeport since a two-day storm in March of 1956 delivered 19.4 inches. Consider that the normal average snowfall for the entire month of December is 3.6 inches. Strong winds, especially during the evening and nighttime hours, caused considerable drifting of the snow 55 years ago today. Winds gusted over 35 to 40 miles an hour.

I wonder how many people remember that storm? If you do, I'd like to hear from you. I can only imagine what it must have been like for stranded motorists. They sure don't make 'em like they used to!

Paul

Cold November Ends Prolonged Warm Streak

The streak is over. For the first time since February of 2011, we've experienced a colder-than-normal month. November's average temperature of 42.7 degrees was 2.8 degrees below normal. Believe it or not, each of the previous 20 months was warmer-than-normal. In addition, November was much drier than normal, too, with just five days of measured precipitation.

November started on a chilly note with each of the first 10 days featuring average temperatures at or below normal. It was cooler-than-normal for seven straight days from Nov. 3 through Nov. 9. The month delivered another seven consecutive days with below-normal temperatures from Nov. 14 to Nov. 20. Finally, 15 of the last 17 days of the month had daily temperatures at or below-normal, including six straight cooler-than-normal days to wrap up the month.

Last month was the tenth coldest November on record at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. In fact, it was the coldest November since 1997. The following graph, produced by Ralph Fato, illustrates the top 10 coldest Novembers on record. Notice three of the coldest Novembers happened in the 1990s, and this is the only November this century to make the list.

It was also one of the coldest Novembers at Sikorsky Airport since 1950. Not only was it the coldest November this century, but it was also the coldest since November of 1997 (42.2 degrees). Ralph also created this bar graph illustrating the November mean temperatures at the airport over the last 62 years. Please click the image to enlarge.

November was also much drier than normal. The total precipitation for the month was 1.22 inches, which was more than two inches below normal (3.39"). Two of the five days with measured precipitation included the Nor'easter of  November 7 and 8, which brought six-tenths of an inch of liquid and 8.3 inches of snow, establishing all all-time record snowfall for the month. Another tenth of an inch of snow fell Nov. 27, when nearly a half-inch of liquid brought the monthly precipitation total to over an inch.

December is beginning on a mild note. Sunday's high temperature was 50 degrees, which is three degrees above normal, and the daily average temperature of 45 degrees is five degrees above normal. Early morning fog will lift, giving way to developing sunshine today with a high temperature in the mid 50s. The mercury may even reach 60 degrees tomorrow before a cold front arrives tomorrow night and early Wednesday, bringing scattered showers and cooler air by the end of the week.

Paul

Turning the Calendar Page to December

The start of the Winter season is officially three weeks away, and temperatures have been running cooler-than-normal recently. Yesterday's high temperature was 44 degrees, and the daily average of 37 was four degrees colder than the normal average of 41. However, a warm-up is ahead, and daytime high temperatures will flirt with 60 degrees by Monday and Tuesday of next week. A cold front will bring slightly cooler air by Wednesday.

The Winter Solstice occurs at 6:12 a.m., Eastern Standard Time, Friday, December 21, technically making it the “shortest” day of the year in terms of sunlight. Sunrise happens at 7:15, while the Sun sets at 4:26 on that day. Gradually, the length of daylight begins to increase by the last week of the month. As one would expect, the average temperatures in December start taking a nosedive based on 40 years of averages, or what we call climatology.

The average high temperature drops from 46 degrees on the first of the month to just 37 degrees on New Year’s Eve. The average daily temperature falls from 39 degrees to 30 degrees over the next 31 days. The record high temperature for the month is 76 degrees, established on December 7, 1998. The coldest days ever for December happened on Christmas Day, December 25, 1980, and the next day, December 26, 1980, when an all-time low of -4 was recorded at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. The mercury also fell to -1 on December 30, 1962.

I'm sure you haven't forgotten the post-Christmas blizzard two years ago, which "snowballed" into one of the most memorable Winters in recent memory. Heavy snow fell from Sunday, December 26, through Monday, December 27, kick-starting a nearly two-month stormy pattern which led to 60 inches of snow. Although that's double the norm, it fell short of the all-time snowiest Winter on record in southwestern Connecticut, when 78 inches fell during the 1995-96 season.

Officially, 12 inches of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford from Sunday morning through early Monday morning, Dec. 26 & 27, 2010. The eight inches of snow which fell Sunday marked the third snowiest December day on record in southwestern Connecticut. Only December 19, 1948 (16 inches), and December 30, 2000 (10 inches) brought more snow in one day. Here are some impressive snow totals from that storm across southwestern Connecticut:

• Wilton: 18"
• New Canaan: 17.5"
• Greenwich: 17"
• Stratford: 16"
• Norwalk: 16"
• Westport: 14.8"
• Darien: 14.5"
• Milford: 14"
• Bridgeport: 12"

One of the more memorable snowstorms in December occurred on Christmas Eve, 1966, when seven inches fell. You may remember that 3.5 inches of snow fell on New Year’s Eve, December 31, 2008.

As far as precipitation is concerned, the average for the month is 3.47 inches. The wettest December on record happened in 1972 when 7.87 inches fell at the airport. Heavy rain plagued southwestern Connecticut  December 11 and 12, 2008, when 3.54 inches of rain fell over those two days, which is more than the average for the entire month. The driest December was in 1955 when only 0.33 inches filled the gauge. The average monthly snowfall is about 3.6 inches.

There is a "bright" side to the month. Although the time of sunrise gets later through the month, the Sun sets later and later, too. Today, for example, the Sun sets at 4:25, which is only one minute after the earliest Sunset in mid December. However, by New Year’s Eve, the Sun will fall below the horizon at 4:33. So, we’ll gain nearly 10 minutes of daylight in the evening through the end of the month.

The Full Cold Moon, otherwise known as the Full Long Nights Moon, happens Friday, December 28, at 5:21 a.m. EST. It is sometimes called the “Moon before Yule.” The term Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the midwinter night is indeed long, and the Moon is above the horizon a long time. The midwinter Full Moon takes a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite to the low Sun.

Happy December!

Paul

Full Beaver Moon to Shine Brightly Tonight

Now that our latest storm system has exited the region, high pressure will return today paving the way for a mostly clear and quite cold night. The Full Beaver Moon (9:46 a.m.) will shine brightly this evening after it rises at 4:40 p.m. However, temperatures will fall in a hurry as winds relax and dry air arrives. Tonight's lows will drop into the 20s across much of the region.

November's Full Moon is so named because this was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm Winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for Winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.

During the late 1800s, beavers were almost hunted to extinction by the white trappers and traders, because the beaver pelt became a very fashionable wardrobe accessory, especially for men's top hats in Europe and in New England. Since that time they have greatly increased in number and in the amount of damage that they cause during the building of their dams and dens.

Are you aware that a single beaver may chew down hundreds of trees every year as he continuously builds and repairs his lodges and dams? The beavers do provide habitat for other animals such as ducks and otters, but they can also cause unexpected large-scale floods.



Over ten years ago in the Washington, D.C. tidal basin, where many of the famous ornamental cherry trees bloom drawing tourists from all over the world, a family of beavers moved into the "luxurious digs." The beavers were noticed as soon as they began downing cherry trees to build their lodges. The National Park Service Rangers quickly set live humane traps and moved the family of pesky beavers to another area where the trees were not as famous or rare.

Full Moon names date back to Native Americans in what is now the Northern and Eastern United States. The tribes kept track of the seasons by giving distinctive names to each recurring Full Moon. Their names were applied to the entire month in which each occurred. There was some variation in the Moon names, but in general, the same ones were current throughout the Algonquin tribes from New England to Lake Superior.

As far as our weather goes, today will feature partly sunny skies, but it will be breezy and chilly with a high temperature in the low-to-mid 40s. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the 20s to close to 30 degrees along the shoreline. Tomorrow will bring a mix of sun and clouds with a high once again in the lower 40s. Enjoy the Full Beaver Moon.

Paul