Phil Predicts Early Spring, but February Weather Can Be Brutal

Another huge crowd gathered at Gobbler's Nob this morning awaiting word from Punxsutawney Phil as to whether or not there will be six more weeks of Winter. Phil didn't disappoint. He did not see his shadow, meaning that we'll have an early Spring. This has been an active Winter season thus far, punctuated by the violent weather which arrived early Thursday morning. The midpoint of Winter, by the way, is this Monday, February 4, marking 45 days since the Winter Solstice and 45 days until the Vernal Equinox.



As for February, it brings an average of 7.2 inches of snow locally, trailing only January as the snowiest month of the year based on 40 years of climatology. There have been a couple of memorable snowstorms in February, including the 16-inch President's Day blizzard, Monday, February 17, 2003. That still stands as the snowiest February day on record. Other impressive snowstorms next month include the 15.9 inch storm on February 9, 1969, and 13 inches of snow on February 16, 1958. There were three other snowstorms with at least a foot of snow, most recently the 12.5 inches which fell on February 12, 2006.

The average daily temperatures begin to slowly climb during February, from a mean of 30 on February 1 to a mean of 35 by the end of the month. The average daily high temperature jumps from 37 to 41 degrees, and the average overnight low temperature increases from 23 to 28. The coldest February day on record across southwestern Connecticut was five degrees below zero on February 8, 1963. The mercury fell to three degrees below zero on February 2, 1961.

There have been several mild days in February, too. The warmest temperature ever recorded during the month was 67 degrees, established three times, most recently on February 27, 1997. There have been 12 dates in February on which the mercury reached at least 60 degrees, including 62 degrees, February 1, 2012. The warmest February on record locally happened in 1997 when the average temperature was 37.3 degrees.

On the flip side, the coldest February on record happened in 1978 when the average temperature was only 24.1 degrees. That was also the year of the famous blizzard when nearly a foot of snow fell on February 6, and the late-Governor Ella Grasso effectively "closed the state" due to the heavy snow and icy roadways.

The amount of daily sunshine continues to increase throughout the month. Today, for example, we enjoy a little more than 10 hours of daylight. However, by the last day of the month, the Sun is out for 11 hours and 16 minutes. That's an increase of one hour and 12 minutes! In fact, the Sun sets at 5:09 tomorrow afternoon, but it doesn't drop below the horizon until 5:42 on February 28. Sunrise also happens earlier throughout the month. The Sun appeared at 7:04 this morning, but it rises over a half-hour earlier (6:27) by the last day of the month!

Can Spring be far behind?

Paul

Warmer & Drier-Than-Normal January

Despite some brutally cold weather during the latter half of the month, January was warmer and drier-than-normal in southwestern Connecticut. The average temperature last month was 32.8 degrees, which is 2.7 degrees above normal. We received exactly two inches of precipitation, well below the 3.10" normal. Nearly five inches of snow (4.7") fell last month.

All but one of the last 24 months have been warmer-than-normal at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford. The only month which was colder-than-normal was last November, when the average temperature of 42.7 degrees was 2.8 degrees below the normal average. Last month, only two of the first 17 days featured temperatures below normal. In fact, during one five-day stretch from January 10 through January 14, the average daily temperature each day was 11, 7, 14, 13, and 17 degrees above normal, respectively.

It was a different story the second half of the month, however. Much colder air arrived by January 22, and the average daily temperature was 10 to 14 degrees below normal from January 22 through January 25. In fact, the average daily temperature was below normal for eight straight days from January 21 through January 28. The last three days, however, were featured average daily temperatures of 5, 16, and 14 degrees above normal, respectively.

The warmest temperature last month was 58 degrees on January 31, which happened at 4:36 a.m.prior to the arrival of a powerful cold front. That brought near-hurricane force winds winds, a 61-mph gust, power outages, and damage to buildings, including the roof at Fairfield Ludlowe High School. The coldest temperature last month was eight degrees exactly one week earlier, January 24. There were eight days with a maximum temperature of of 32 degrees or below and 26 days with a minimum temperature of 32 degrees or below.

There were just nine days with measured precipitation last month. The first 10 days only had a trace of precipitation (January 6). Five of the next six days, though, delivered measured precipitation, including 0.56" of liquid precipitation and 3.5" of snow January 16. The next eight days didn't have any measured precipitation, save for a trace of snow on January 21. Then, four of the last eight days of January had precipitation, including a half-inch of snow January 25 and 0.7" of snow January 28.

February is beginning on a chilly note. Daytime temperatures should stay in the 30s through the middle of next week. Nighttime lows will drop close to 20 degrees. Snow is expected to develop Saturday night and continue into Sunday, possibly mixing with rain along the immediate shoreline. Two-to-three inches are possible by Sunday night. More snow is possible later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Have a good weekend.

Paul

Severe Storm Brings Damaging Winds & Destruction to Region

A powerful cold front plowed into southwestern Connecticut early this morning, bringing 60-plus mile-an-hour winds, moderate-to-heavy rain, power outages, and severe damage to the region. Part of the roof of Fairfield Ludlowe High School was destroyed, causing an early dismissal and a three-day weekend for students, teachers, and staff.

  

The storms was caused by a clash of two air masses. Ahead of the front, temperatures surged to a record 58 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford at 4:36 a.m., which broke the previous mark of 54 degrees set one year ago. It was also 35 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year. The peak wind gusts happened after 4 o'clock as the front approached. The wind gusted to 61 mph at the airport at 4:28 and 64 mph in Norwalk at 4:15.

The near-hurricane force winds caused the damage to the Ludlowe roof. According to a letter sent to parents from FLHS principal Greg Hatzis, "In the early morning hours of January 31, storm winds blew off a section of the rubber membrane on the FLHS roof. The affected area is above a main hallway in the second floor (Warner House). This left a portion of the building without a moisture barrier and the rain from the storm entered the building. This hallway contains fifteen classrooms, about ten of which sustained some water damage."

Wind gusts were even stronger in other parts of the state. In fact, a 78-mile-an-hour wind gust was clocked in Westbook at 5:20 a.m., and a 73-mile-an-hour wind gust was recorded at Madison at 5:25 a.m. East Haven (68 mph), Old Saybrook (65 mph), Middletown (64 mph), and New Haven (61 mph) also had wind gusts over 60 miles an hour.

The damaging winds also caused many power outages. Many residents of Westport were without power following the height of the storm. Westport First Selectman Gordon Joseloff said the storm left more than 40 percent of the town without electricity at one point. A dozen utility crews were on hand to help restore power.



Moderate rainfall accompanied the cold front. More than one inch of rain fell in Danbury, and over a half-inch (0.60") was measured at Sikorsky Airport. The winds shifted out of the West once the front passed before daybreak, and temperatures dropped steadily throughout the day. After reaching the record high of 58 degrees after 4 o'clock, the mercury dropped to 46 degrees just before one o'clock as winds gusted over 30 miles an hour. By 7 o'clock, the temperature fell to 36 degrees.

Now, cold weather is here to stay. Daytime temperatures will remain in the 30s through the middle of next week with nighttime lows in the lower 20s. Another system will bring snow to the region by Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Two-to-three inches of snow are possible by the time the storm exits Sunday night. Another round of snow is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Never a dull moment in the weathercenter.

Paul

Blizzard Two Years Ago Today Resulted in Snowiest January on Record

A powerful storm exploded over southwestern Connecticut two years ago this morning, delivering heavy snow, gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. Nearly a foot-and-a-half of snow was reported in most communities in the area before the snow moved away by daybreak, January 26, 2011. Not surprisingly, it resulted in the snowiest January on record across southwestern Connecticut.

Officially, after that memorable storm, nearly three feet (34.8") of snow had fallen at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford, breaking the previous January record of 26.2 inches set in 1965. The normal snowfall for the month is 8.5 inches. Last January, just 7.4" of snow fell, while three years ago, only 7.7 inches of snow fell in January. Take a look at this photo from viewer Margaret in Devon which was taken at 2 o'clock in the morning two years ago today.



Here are snowfall totals from Wednesday, January 26, 2011:

• Norwalk: 17.0"
• Darien: 15.5"
• Milford: 15.0"
• Fairfield: 15.0"
• Greenwich: 14.5"

Once again, my neighbor, Todd, who owns a snowplow, drove me to work. Without question, it was the worst ride to work in my 15-and-a-half years of doing morning weather at News 12 Connecticut. I have never seen I-95 as snow-covered and as dangerous as two years ago today. There were several tractor trailers jacknifed, and the backup was extensive on the Northbound side in Westport. The heavy, wet snow made driving extremely difficult.



I woke up to the sound of muffled thunder shortly after midnight, and when I went to look out the window, I saw nothing but white. The snow was falling heavily, and I knew the storm had intensified due to the gusty winds, thunder, and lightning. This was no ordinary snowstorm. Nearly a foot of snow had accumulated by midnight. When Todd arrived at my driveway at 2:20, I couldn't get the kitchen door open because the snow was piled so high. Just walking to his plow was a chore in itself. Here's another shot from Devon two years ago this morning.



A blustery and cold day is ahead under mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the upper 20s. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and milder. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop later Monday, but that will allow for much milder air and rain to arrive by the middle of next week.

Paul

Full Wolf Moon to Shine Brightly This Weekend

We're off to another cold start this morning with temperatures in the single digits inland and lower teens along the immediate shoreline. However, the clear night sky was illuminated brilliantly by the nearly-full Moon. In fact, I could easily make out the shadows of homes and trees in the middle of the night. The Full Wolf Moon officially happens Saturday, January 26, at 11:38 p.m. EST.

Since the length of daylight is still relatively short, the full Moon will appear for nearly its longest duration of the year. In fact, today's moonrise happens at 3:58 p.m., and tomorrow's moonset is at 6:26 a.m. That means the Moon will be "out" for nearly 14-and-a-half hours. Sunrise this morning was at 7:09. During the Summer, when the Sun rises earlier and sets later, a full Moon isn't "out" nearly as long since the daylight is much longer.

The Moon rises about 30 to 70 minutes later each day, so the Moon is out during the daytime as often as it is out at night. As the Moon wanes, it becomes a half Moon and a crescent Moon on the way to a new Moon. The complete phase cycle is about 29.5 days average duration. The time in days counted from the time of New Moon is called the Moon's "age." Each complete cycle of phases is called a "lunation."



So how did the name of the January full Moon originate? Amid the cold and deep snows of midwinter, the wolf packs howled hungrily outside Indian villages. Thus, the name for this month's full Moon. Sometimes it was also referred to as the Old Moon or the Moon After Yule. Some called it the Full Snow Moon, but most tribes applied that name to the next Moon. The next three full Moons this year include the February 7th Snow Moon, March 8th Worm Moon, and April 6th Pink Moon.

As far as our weather is concerned, we won't be able to see the Full Moon tonight due to a weak Clipper system which should bring less than an inch of snow to southwestern Connecticut. The light snow will exit the region after midnight. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, blustery, and cold with a high temperatures in the upper 20s. Sunny skies are expected Sunday before milder temperatures arrive by next week.

Paul

Frigid Wind Chills Expected Today

The coldest air of the season will be with us through the start of the upcoming weekend. Low temperatures dropped into the lower single digits inland and upper single numbers along the immediate shoreline early this morning. However, a gusty Northwest wind will develop today, and wind chill values are expected to be close to zero for much of the day. Yes, bundle up!

Exposure to brutally cold wind chills for even a brief period of time can be dangerous. Make sure you're bundled up before heading outside, and keep your extremities covered. The wind chill is based on the rate of heat loss on exposed skin caused by the wind and cold. As the wind increases, it draws heat from the body, driving down the skin temperature and eventually the body temperature.

The adjacent photo (click to enlarge) is a wind chill chart. Feel free to print the chart and keep it handy. It shows corresponding values for the air temperature and wind speed. Today, for example, when the high temperature struggles to reach 20 degrees and the wind is blowing at 20 miles an hour, the wind chill will be between zero and five degrees above zero. At this wind chill temperature, exposed skin can freeze in 30 minutes!

Frostbite occurs when body tissue freezes. The most susceptible parts of the body are the fingers, toes, ear lobes, or the tip of the nose. Symptoms include a loss of feeling in the extremity and a white or pale appearance. Get medical attention immeditaely for frostbite. The affected area should be slowly warmed.

Hypothermia occurs when the body temperature falls below 95 degrees. Warning signs include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and exhaustion. Get medical attention immediately. If help is not available, begin warming the body slowly.

Warm the body core first, and not the extremities. Warming extremities first drives the cold blood to the heart and can cause the body temperature to drop even more. That may ultimately lead to heart failure. Do not take any hot beverage or food. About 20% of cold-related deaths occur in the home, according to the National Weather Service Office.

Obviously, the best way to avoid hypothermia and frostbite is to stay warm and dry indoors. If you must go outside, dress appropriately. Wear several layers of loose-fitting, lightweight, warm clothing. The trapped air inside the layers will insulate the body. Remove the layers to avoid sweating and subsequent chill. Wear a hat since half of body heat can be lost from the head. Cover your mouth to protect the lungs from the extreme cold. Mittens are actually better than gloves. Try to stay dry and out of the wind.

Remember, as far as the wind chill is concerned, it only affects people and animals. The only effect the wind chill has on inanimate objects such as car radiators and water pipes is that it cools the object more quickly to the current air temperature. For example,if the outside air temperature is five degrees below zero and the wind chill temperature is -31 degrees, then the car's radiator will not drop lower than -5.

I hope this helps. I know I'll be bundled up when I go outside today. Adding insult to injury will be an area of low pressure which will bring some light, fluffy snow to the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Perhaps an inch or two of snow will accumulate. However, temperatures are expected to moderate well into the 40s by the middle of next week. I can hardly wait.

Paul