Weather Plays Role in Election Day Outcomes

Tomorrow is Election Day. The seemingly-endless campaigning, non-stop political ads, and intense debates have finally come to an end. Now, it's time to cast your vote. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn't seem to want to cooperate. Rain showers are likely with a possible thunderstorm as high temperature climb to between 60 and 65 degrees Tuesday. Does weather actually play a role in voter turnout? Only recently has science been applied to illustrate that bad weather on Election Day can indeed change the course of history.

The longtime belief is that rain hurts Democrats. Generally speaking, Democrats are more likely to live in cities and tend to be less affluent than Republicans. Consequently, they are more likely to walk to the polls or depend on public transportation. So logically, rain might discourage more Democrats than Republicans from getting out to vote or from waiting outside crowded urban polling places.

A recently released study confirmed that belief. The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was published in The Journal of Politics in June of 2007. A team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.

The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in dry areas such as Los Angeles. Overall, the researchers found that "rain does have a significant effect decreasing the Democratic vote share," said political scientist Brad Gomez, a co-author of the study.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found. Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."

So if it's raining or snowing on Election Day, the challenge for Democrats is to overcome the Republican advantage by better mobilizing their supporters, the researchers said. "Otherwise, Democrats may wish to pray for dry weather," they said. The single most impressive example of rain dampening enthusiasm occurred in 1972 in Tunica County, Mississippi, the researchers reported. Over four inches of rain (4.37") fell on Election Day that year, and voter turnout plunged 3.8 percent.

In the hotly contested 2000 election, better weather in Florida could have tilted it into Democrat Al Gore's column, the study concluded. That would have made irrelevant the recount that led to George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. Supreme Court that year. In 1960, the study said, Richard Nixon would have won an additional 106 electoral votes --- and the presidency --- had the weather been bad in Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, all closely contested states Kennedy won that year.

Although the weather was pretty bad across the country on Election Day in 1972 and 1992, the outcomes those years were so lopsided for Nixon and Bill Clinton, respectively, that less precipitation couldn't have changed things, the researchers said. So, the obvious conclusion is that the tighter the election, the more important the weather becomes, according to the study.

We'll see whether the weather influences this year's elections. There are many local races on the ballot. Make sure you take your umbrella and cast your vote.

Paul

Today Marks Sixth Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy

Today marks the sixth anniversary of the arrival of Hurricane Sandy. It devastated much of the Eastern seaboard with powerful winds, record-low pressure, and historic tidal surges. The hurricane, which brought heavy rain and flooding across the mid-Atlantic region, made its heralded landfall near Atlantic City, N.J., around 8 p.m. Monday evening, October 29, 2012. It arrived slightly earlier than originally projected because it had picked up speed, moving at about 28 mph.

Although our region was spared the heavy rainfall, winds increased throughout the day Monday, reaching a peak wind gust of 76 miles-an-hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford later that evening. The hurricane-force gusts resulted in massive power outages, downed trees and power lines, and three deaths in Connecticut.

Unfortunately, the storm came during a Full Moon, causing a storm surge of 10 feet at Bridgeport harbor late Monday night. Sandy's strength and angle of approach combined to produce a record storm surge of water into New York City. The surge level at Battery Park topped 13.88 feet at 9:24 p.m. Monday, surpassing the 10.02 feet record water level set by Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The local shoreline communities, especially Fairfield and Milford, were hit hardest. Many homes, which had been hammered by Tropical Storm Irene just over a year earlier, were severely damaged or destroyed by Sandy.

Flooding prevented some homeowners from even getting to their homes near the beach in Fairfield. People were getting around by kayaks and canoes in the shoreline neighborhood, which was buzzing with the sound of pumps taking water out of houses. At one point Tuesday, United Illuminating reported that 100% of its Fairfield customers were without power. Schools were closed the rest of the week, and Fairfield Ludlowe High School opened a shelter for displaced residents and pets.

An Easton volunteer firefighter died while clearing debris in front of a fire truck Monday evening, October 29, on Judd Road. Lt. Russell Neary was struck by a falling limb. The body of a missing 34-year-old man, who was last seen swimming in the heavy surf after jumping from a pier Monday evening,  was recovered in Milford. Also, a 90-year-old Mansfield woman was killed and two family members were seriously injuted when a tree fell on them during the storm Monday.

More than 750,000 people were reported to have lost power across the region. Cities including Washington and Boston closed their mass-transit systems. Schools were closed, and shelters began to fill with hundreds of thousands of people ordered to leave their homes and seek safety. Wall Street trading was disrupted, as were political campaigns throughout the region just eight days before election day. Here is a view of the waves at Laurel Beach in Milford.

When hurricane hunter aircraft measured its central pressure at 940 millibars -- 27.76 inches -- Monday afternoon, it was the lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The previous record holder was the 1938 "Long Island Express" Hurricane, which dropped as low as 946 millibars. Here is a time-lapsed loop of the surface pressure around Hurricane Sandy beginning October 26th.

 

 Paul

Thursday Marks 33rd Anniversay of Hurricane Gloria

The heavy rain Tuesday brought flooding to many parts of southwestern Connecticut, the likes of which hadn't been seen in many years. However, 33 years ago today, a more significant storm was about to hit, resulting in significant wind damage, massive power outages, and heavy rain. That's when area  residents were bracing for Hurricane Gloria, which caused significant damage and destruction to the Northeast the next day.

I was a rookie educator at the time, having just secured my first position as a seventh grade teacher in a self-contained classroom at a private school in New Haven. Weather was my passion, naturally, and I was able to share my excitement at the upcoming storm. Just three weeks into the profession, I received a week's vacation unexpectedly.

I was also a weekend newscaster and disc jockey at WMMM radio in Westport. I received a phone call from program director Gary Zenobia just after I returned home from school on Thursday afternoon requesting that I host an overnight newscast to inform our listeners about the impending storm and emergency measures which may have to be taken. WMMM was a daytime-only station, meaning it was on the air during daylight hours and signed off at sunset, but this time it was granted an exception by the Federal Communications Commission.

As my family was applying tape to picture windows, securing lawn furniture, stocking up on non-perishable food, and checking batteries for flashlights and portable radios, I was packing a bag for my overnight stay at the radio station. We had a few reporters "on location" at various shelters throughout town, and then-First Selectman William Seiden joined me on the air most of the night to reassure listeners that their safety was our primary concern.

The overnight hours were anxious moments for all of us as we awaited the arrival of the storm. Local shelters began to fill up quickly, and I remember answering the telephone every couple of minutes from town residents who were sharing their concerns and fears. Gloria struck fast and furiously. The hurricane hit New York and Connecticut as a moderate hurricane early the next day. At the time of landfall on Long Island, Gloria had sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, while rapidly moving forward at 35 miles per hour.

This combination of sustained winds and rapid forward motion produced major hurricane conditions and gusts to 115 mph across a narrow area of Eastern Long Island, New York. Although Gloria was not a major hurricane when it struck Connecticut, it was still the most damaging hurricane to strike the state since Carol in 1954. The rain began overnight, and before long the winds became a serious matter.

As the morning wore on, Gloria continued to accelerate northward off the Eastern seaboard, brushing the coastlines of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey with hurricane-force gusts. Later that morning, Gloria finally crossed the coast of the United States mainland near western Long Island about 10-miles East of Kennedy International Airport. Passing over central Long Island, Gloria crossed the Connecticut coast near Bridgeport about 40 minutes later with sustained winds of 80 mph. By that time, I was already home, but there was no way I was going to go to sleep.

I vividly remember the eye of the hurricane passing almost directly overhead by midday. That's when the skies cleared, the winds calmed dramatically, and the damage was plainly visible. Downed trees, power lines, and debris scattered just about everywhere greeted us as we stepped outside. Naturally, the power was out, too, and we remained "in the dark" for almost six days. Needless to say, I didn't have to worry about any lesson plans for quite awhile.

There were very few wind reports near the area of landfall in New York and Connecticut due to the complete evacuation of Coast Guard personnel from stations across the region. The strongest official wind gust recorded on Long Island was 84 mph at Islip. In Connecticut, the National Weather Service at Sikorsky Airport in Stratford recorded sustained winds of 74 mph with a gust to 92 mph.

A barometric pressure of 28.37 inches was measured by aircraft when Gloria crossed Long Island. The National Weather Service at Kennedy International Airport recorded a minimum pressure of 28.57 inches, while Sikorsky Airport in Bridgeport, Connecticut, recorded a low pressure of 28.47 inches. This was the lowest barometric pressure recorded in Connecticut and New York since Donna in 1960, 25 years earlier.

Gloria produced weak Category Two hurricane conditions across southwestern Connecticut. The storm continued to lose intensity as it passed over Long Island. Peak wind gusts in south-central and southeastern Connecticut were close to 95 mph as the tropical cyclone swept over the region. The metropolitan New Haven area was hit with wind gusts of 90 mph and heavy rain. There were only a few reports of minimal structural damage in southwestern Connecticut. Tree damage in Connecticut was heavy within 10 to 20 miles of the coast, and along the coast from around Bridgeport to New London.

By late Friday afternoon, the storm was long gone, but the cleanup was just staring. Since the power was out, my family and I headed to nearby Bridgeport to have dinner at a restaurant which was operating on emergency generators. I still think of Gloria whenever I drive past that restaurant. In fact, I still have my framed certificate from Mr. Seiden thanking me for my service to Westport. It was a storm I'll never forget.

Paul

Today Marks 63rd Anniversary of The Great Flood of 1955

This week marks the 63rd anniversary of The Flood of 1955, which was the direct result of the effects of hurricanes Connie and Diane less than a week apart in August of 1955.

Here is the front-page story from The Bridgeport Telegram the following day, Saturday, August 20, 1955. Please click "view" to enlarge and read.


Paul

Today Marks 49th Anniversary of Apollo 11 Moon Landing

Some dates naturally carry more significance than others. Birthdays and anniversaries come to mind instantly. One such "anniversary" happened 49 years ago today. Those of you old enough to remember Sunday, July 20, 1969, no doubt can recall watching Apollo 11 astronaut Neil Armstrong descending the steps of the lunar module’s ladder and setting foot on the Moon for the first time. I was mesmerized by what I saw that night on the black-and-white Zenith television set in our living room.

Apollo 11, the fifth human spaceflight of the Apollo program, launched from the Kennedy Space Center four days earlier. As a young child of 10, watching the late Armstrong walk on the lunar surface was probably the most significant news event of my youth. I can still remember the late Walter Cronkite on CBS television describing the landing, and the bundle of nerves I felt for myself and the Apollo astronauts, Commander Neil Armstrong, Lunar Module Pilot Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin, and Command Module Pilot Michael Collins.

I was fascinated by the space program in the 1960s. Naturally, I couldn’t wait for the landing of Apollo on the Moon. As I recall, while on the far side of the Moon, the lunar module, called the Eagle, separated from the Command Module, named Columbia. Collins remained alone in Columbia, while Armstrong and Aldrin used Eagle’s descent engine to right themselves and descend to the lunar surface. The wait seemed interminable for this youngster, who couldn’t believe that we would actually see LIVE images from the Moon later that night.

I kept asking questions of my Mom and Dad all day and evening. “What will it look like on television?” “When will the astronauts climb out of the Eagle?” “How are we able to see it if they’re so far away?” They couldn’t answer most of my questions since this had never happened before. I still couldn’t believe what we were about to see. I’m sure it’s what ultimately piqued my interest in astronomy, subsequent space missions, and Science in general. This is what it looked like 49 years ago today.



Our family gathered in the living room in front of the small TV set with rabbit ears and watched as Cronkite prepared us for the first step on the Moon. Just over six-and-a half hours after Apollo 11 landed on the Moon at 4:17 p.m., we sat in silence and awe as Armstrong made his descent to the Moon’s surface at 10:56 p.m. and spoke his famous words: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.”

I don't know if there will be any mention of it on any newscasts today. Nine years ago, however, it was a different story as it marked the 40th anniversary of that unforgettable day. Incredibly, more than half the people living in the United States today weren’t even born when Neil Armstrong became the first man to walk on the moon. It was arguably the most historic event of the 20th century. I, for one, am glad I saw it LIVE, and I will never forget it for the rest of my life!

Paul

Earth is Farthest From Sun Today During Its Annual Elliptical Orbit

Despite the warm and humid weather all week, our planet is actually at its farthest point from the Sun today. According to the U. S. Naval Observatory, the Earth reached a point in its orbit called "aphelion" at 12:46 p.m. EDT. The Earth's aphelion is the point where it is the farthest from the Sun than at any time during the year at a distance of 94,506,507 miles.

The Earth is typically about 93 million miles from the Sun. However, because our planet's orbit is not a perfect circle but an ellipse, it has a farthest point and a closest point to the Sun. In case you're wondering, the Earth's closest approach to the Sun is called perihelion, and that occurs in early January. The Earth is exactly 3,104,641 miles (or 3.28 percent) farther from the Sun than at its closest approach. The Earth actually receives about seven percent less heat at its aphelion than at its closest approach, according to researchers.

Although the date for both will vary from year to year, the Earth will always be closest to the Sun in early January and the farthest away in early July. Not surprisingly, that comes as a surprise to most people. At perihelion, our planet is about 91 million miles from the Sun. It moves outward to about 95 million miles from the Sun at aphelion. Naturally, some people have the mistaken impression that our seasons are caused by the changes in Earth's distance from the Sun, but this is not the case.

The temperatures and the seasons are not affected by the proximity of the Earth to the Sun or even the rotation of the planet on its axis. Rather, it is the tilt of the Earth that determines the climate. When it is at perihelion in January, the Earth is tilted away from the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere, and the sunlight is not "getting a direct hit" on the Earth's atmosphere. However, when it is at aphelion in July, the Earth is tilted toward the Sun.

Today's high temperature at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford was 83 degrees, and the low temperature was 68 degrees for a 76-degree average. That's two degrees above normal for the date. So, even though it was a good day for the beach or pool, the Earth was actually at its farthest point from the Sun in its annual orbit.

Paul