Near-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted

The official start of the hurricane season is just over a week away, and with Tropical Storm Irene still fresh in our minds, many people are wondering what this year will bring. Fortunately, it shouldn't be an above average tropical season in the Atlantic basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction center, which issued its forecast earlier this morning.

NOAA predicts that there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher this year. Four to eight of them will strengthen to a hurricane with top winds of 74 mph or higher and, of those, one to three will become major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking as either a category three, four, or five. Based on the period from 1981 to 2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, a category five hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

The seasonal outlook does not predict how many storms will hit land. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts are provided by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, which continuously monitors the tropics for storm development and tracking throughout the season using an array of tools including satellites, advance computer modeling, hurricane hunter aircraft, and land- and ocean-based observations sources such as radars and buoys.

Tropical Storm Irene will long be remembered by residents of southwestern Connecticut for the number of lives it affected. According to Mitch Gross, a spokesman for Connecticut Light and Power, more than 700,000 customers were without power early Sunday, August 28, 2011, easily breaking the previous record of 480,000 following Hurricane Gloria in September of 1985. Rainfall totals ranged from just over three inches to more than a half-foot in Northern Fairfield County. Officially, the airport set a record of 2.50 inches August 28, bringing the two-day storm total to 3.35 inches.









Although the storm's effects were felt for quite some time, it could have been much worse. The highest wind gusts reported in the region was 63 miles an hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford just before daybreak, Sunday, August 28. The highest wind speed was 46 miles an hour, and the average wind speed was 24.9 miles an hour. Fortunately, winds never reached hurricane force, but that certainly was little consequence to the thousands of people who were without power or who suffered damage from Irene.

“Every hurricane season we ask families, communities, and businesses to ensure they are prepared and visit www.ready.gov/hurricanes,” said Tim Manning, FEMA deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “Being prepared includes developing a family emergency plan, putting an emergency kit together or updating your existing kit, keeping important papers and valuables in a safe place, and getting involved to ensure your community is ready.”

Paul