Severe Weather Potential for Wednesday

The second of three consecutive hot and humid days is sending many southwestern Connecticut families to lakes, beaches, and close to the air conditioners this afternoon. Today will most likely be the hottest day of the week after the mercury reached 91 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford Monday afternoon. The normal high temperature for this time of the year is 83 degrees, and the record high is 95 set in 1953.

The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection has issued an Air Quality Alert, which will remain in effect through 11 o'clock tonight. A southwest flow of air is bringing tropical moisture, high humidity, and hot surface temperatures to the region. This will create a favorable environment for ozone levels to exceed the threshold for 'unhealthy for sensitive groups.'

However, our weather picture is about to change in a big way. A cold front will approach from the North tomorrow afternoon, bringing the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms to the region. The forecast surface map below shows the cold front just to the North and West of southwestern Connecticut at 8 o'clock Wednesday evening. There is concern for the possibility of vivid lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. 

The atmosphere will be saturated. Working in our favor, though, are winds less than 50 knots in the upper atmosphere and the influence of the maritime air ahead of the front. Keep an eye to the sky tomorrow afternoon. Not surprisingly, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a slight threat for strong convection during the day tomorrow.

The silver lining behind the front will be much more comfortable and seasonable weather by the end of the week and the weekend. One of the computer models is hinting at some moisture making its way toward Southern New England Friday, but we're playing optimist in the weathercenter and expecting a large dome of high pressure to keep us bright and dry through Sunday.

Paul