Memorial Day Forecast Includes Mother Nature's Fireworks

Memorial Day weekend --- and the unofficial start of Summer --- is upon us. Unfortunately, this will not be an ideal weekend weatherwise, but it won't be a washout, either. Tomorrow will be the best day of the three-day holiday weekend with partly-to-mostly sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 80s. Here is my latest forecast:


Memorial Day Forecast by PaulWXman

Although it seems like we've had a fair share of rain recently on Memorial Day, last year was the only time in the last five years there has been measured rain on Memorial Day in southwestern Connecticut. You may recall that Monday, May 30, 2011, brought a third of an inch of rain and extremely warm temperatures. In fact, the mercury climbed to 87 degrees last Memorial Day, establishing a new record high for the date.

According to the National Weather Service climate summary for the Greater New York City metropolitan area, measured rain fell on Memorial Day just nine times in the last 25 years (since 1987). The rainiest Memorial Day occurred on May 26, 2003, when over an inch (1.28") of rain fell during the morning hours. Rain fell on successive Memorial Days in 1995 (0.68") and 1996 (0.11"), and then again in 2003 and 2004 (0.21").

Take a look at the last five Memorial Day weather summaries for southwestern Connecticut, including the high and low temperatures, daily average, and rainfall totals:

• May 30, 2011: 87 - 67 - 77 - 0.33"
• May 31, 2010: 73 - 62 - 68 - 0.00"
• May 25, 2009: 76 - 61 - 69 - 0.00"
• May 26, 2008: 73 - 55 - 64 - trace
• May 28, 2007: 85 - 60 - 73 - 0.00"

A frontal boundary will be the focus of our holiday weekend weather. A weak warm front to the South will dissipate today, while high pressure remains to the East, and a cold front approaches from the West. The front will approach later tonight and stall over the Northeast through early Sunday, and then lift slowly North as a warm front later Sunday and Sunday night. Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes Memorial Day and move through southern Canada Monday night through Wednesday morning.

If you're wondering, the normal high and low temperatures across southwestern Connecticut for this time of the year are 70 and 54 degrees, respectively, for a daily average of 62 degrees. The record high and low temperatures for this Monday, May 28, are 90 (1991) and 40 (1961), respectively. Sunrise is at 5:23 a.m. and sunset is at 8:17 p.m. The wettest May 28 on record happened in 1985 when nearly an inch-and-a-half (1.48") was recorded at Sikorsky Airport.

Happy Memorial Day weekend.

Paul

Near-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted

The official start of the hurricane season is just over a week away, and with Tropical Storm Irene still fresh in our minds, many people are wondering what this year will bring. Fortunately, it shouldn't be an above average tropical season in the Atlantic basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction center, which issued its forecast earlier this morning.

NOAA predicts that there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher this year. Four to eight of them will strengthen to a hurricane with top winds of 74 mph or higher and, of those, one to three will become major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking as either a category three, four, or five. Based on the period from 1981 to 2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, a category five hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

The seasonal outlook does not predict how many storms will hit land. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts are provided by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, which continuously monitors the tropics for storm development and tracking throughout the season using an array of tools including satellites, advance computer modeling, hurricane hunter aircraft, and land- and ocean-based observations sources such as radars and buoys.

Tropical Storm Irene will long be remembered by residents of southwestern Connecticut for the number of lives it affected. According to Mitch Gross, a spokesman for Connecticut Light and Power, more than 700,000 customers were without power early Sunday, August 28, 2011, easily breaking the previous record of 480,000 following Hurricane Gloria in September of 1985. Rainfall totals ranged from just over three inches to more than a half-foot in Northern Fairfield County. Officially, the airport set a record of 2.50 inches August 28, bringing the two-day storm total to 3.35 inches.









Although the storm's effects were felt for quite some time, it could have been much worse. The highest wind gusts reported in the region was 63 miles an hour at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford just before daybreak, Sunday, August 28. The highest wind speed was 46 miles an hour, and the average wind speed was 24.9 miles an hour. Fortunately, winds never reached hurricane force, but that certainly was little consequence to the thousands of people who were without power or who suffered damage from Irene.

“Every hurricane season we ask families, communities, and businesses to ensure they are prepared and visit www.ready.gov/hurricanes,” said Tim Manning, FEMA deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “Being prepared includes developing a family emergency plan, putting an emergency kit together or updating your existing kit, keeping important papers and valuables in a safe place, and getting involved to ensure your community is ready.”

Paul

May Rain Totals Growing Year-by-Year

Have we had enough rain yet? I'm sure that's a question you thought you'd never ask just over a month ago when we were worried about a potential drought. However, the recent weather pattern has pushed our monthly rain total well above normal. Tuesday's rain was originally supposed to taper off by midday, but light rain and showers persisted through much of the afternoon and into the evening.

Officially, 0.35" of rain fell Tuesday at Sikorsky Memorial Airport. That boosted May's total rainfall to 4.25" and nearly two inches above normal (2.57") through May 22. It also helped close the yearly deficit gap to under four inches. Since January 1, we've received over a foot (12.82") of precipitation, still much lower than the normal amount (16.64") through Tuesday. Yesterday was also the 12th day with measured rain this month.

Ralph Fato of Norwalk wrote, " It hasn't stopped raining all day. This is nuts. I'm at 7.00" for the month here in Norwalk." Yes, some parts of southwestern Connecticut have seen even more rain, especially the extreme southwestern corner, where the heaviest rain fell Monday. Ralph also pointed something else out. After looking at the weather record book, he noticed that the rainfall amounts in May have increased each year since 2007.

Ralph created this graph illustrating the sky cover for the month of May over the last five years, including the rain total for each month. The colors of blue (clear), gray (partly cloudy), white (cloudy), and green (rain) represent the weather for the number of days which are labeled. We still need 1.37" of rain through the end of May for that trend to continue. Last year's total of 5.61" was helped in no small part by back-to-back days of record rain.

Here are the rainfall totals for each of the last five years in May at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford: 

• 2007: 1.05"
• 2008: 2.44"
• 2009: 2.93"
• 2010: 3.16"
• 2011: 5.61"

Can the monthly rain top last year's impressive amount? Although there aren't any major storms in the immediate future, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. Of course, any thunderstorm may be accompanied by heavy rain. The Memorial Day holiday weekend, though, looks fairly good. Although it won't be nearly as perfect as last weekend, a weather front will be in the area, causing scattered showers or thunderstorms later Saturday and Monday.

Paul

Spring Roses in Full Bloom

Today's rain is certainly good for the lawns and gardens. This is the 11th day with measured rain this month, pushing our total May rainfall to close to four inches. Viewer Hilkka Schulz of Stamford wrote, "It is really pouring right now. Our street looks like a river. Wow. However, this weekend was just gorgeous, and roses are looking their best here in Connecticut. These are a few samples from my backyard. Have a wonderful week." They look great! Thanks, Hilkka!

Paul

Today Marks 16th Anniversary of Warmest Spring Day on Record

Today marks the 16th anniversary of the warmest May day on record. The mercury soared to 97 degrees at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on Monday, May 20, 1996, nearly 30 degrees higher than the average high temperature for the date. In fact, only one other Spring day has been as warm, and that happened on June 9 of 2008. What made the record high of 1996 so memorable was that it happened just 40 days after nearly a foot of snow capped the snowiest Winter on record, and just days after much colder-than-normal temperatures.

“Just over a week ago, the climate got rewound to Winter,” wrote N. R. Kleinfield of The New York Times in an article dated May 21, 1996. “Six inches of snow coated parts of upstate New York (as if the year required more snow). In the city last week, the high temperature dipped to the 50s. Spring, you might have noticed, either got lost or just forgot to come. Then came yesterday (May 20, 1996). It all got fast-forwarded to August. Bathing suits instead of ski parkas,” he continued.

“Turn off the heater and turn up the air-conditioner. What’s going on? Is this Earth or is this Mars? People could be excused for being mystified, discombobulated, distraught, furious, dazed, crazed, tentative, dizzy and, of course, just plain really, really hot.” The temperature reached a record high of 96 degrees in Central Park, eclipsing the previous record of 91 set in 1959, and a new record was established in Newark, where it was 99 degrees. Incredibly, just over a week earlier, on the weekend of May 11 and 12, 1996, it snowed in upstate New York.

Remember, the first two-and-a-half weeks of May in 1996 were unseasonably chilly. The record heat and outages at two power plants, one in Westchester and one in upstate New York, reduced the electricity reserves of New York state’s power pool, leading Consolidated Edison to ask customers to curtail electricity consumption. With air-conditioners thrumming away, demand in New York City reached around 9,000 megawatts, well above the normal 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts for this time of year.

Twelve years later, a late Spring scorcher, which included another 97-degree Spring day, forced area schools to dismiss early and close in early June of 2008. Temperatures soared to 90 degrees or hotter on Sunday, June 8 (90 degrees), Monday, June 9 (97), and Tuesday, June 10 (96). The normal high temperature for the first week of June is 74 degrees. It’s the first time in recent memory that school systems shut down due to the oppressive heat.

It won't be nearly as hot today, but the humidity will be on the rise. After a picture-perfect weekend, some showers can be expected from late-morning through this afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s to close to 70 degrees. Our weather picture will remain unsettled through the next couple of days before we begin to see some improvment by Thursday and Friday. The Memorial Day holiday weekend looks fairly good, too, with the exception of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Paul

Second Straight Day of Record Rain Soaked Region One Year Ago

The recent rainy pattern helped close the gap in our rainfall deficit this year, but it pales in comparison to the nearly-week-long stretch of record rain one year ago. There were six straight days of measured rain from May 14 through May 19, 2011, soaking southwestern Connecticut with more than four inches (4.19") of rain in less than a week. An additional half-inch of rain fell over the next five days, bringing the monthly total to more than five-and-a-half inches (5.61").

Officially, nearly two-and-a-half inches (2.35") of rain fell exactly one year ago today --- May 18, 2011 --- at Sikorsky Memorial Airport, marking the second straight day of record rain. Well over an inch (1.26") of rain was measured the previous day, bringing the two-day total to more than three-and-a-half inches. The total amount of rain over the six-day stretch was greater than the normal rainfall (4.03") for the entire month, based on 40+ years of averages.

Take a look at the rain amounts during the week of May 14 through May 19, 2011:

• May 14: 0.45"
• May 15: 0.09"
• May 16: 0.03"
• May 17: 1.26"
• May 18: 2.35"
• May 19: 0.01"

Our weather won't be anything like that the next couple of days. High pressure will dominate through tomorrow bringing mostly sunny skies. Today's highs will reach the lower 70s, while tomorrow's highs will climb into the upper 70s to close to 80 degrees. An ocean storm will eventually bring showers to the region Sunday night through the middle of next week, continuing our recent theme of wet weekdays and dry weekends.

Paul