*** Paul Piorek is editor and publisher of the Weather Journal for southwestern Connecticut ... Paul is the broadcast meteorologist at WICC 600 AM, 95.9 FM, 107.3 FM, & voiceofct.com ... Paul is a New York Emmy award winner (2007), five-time Emmy nominee (1993, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010), four-time winner of the Connecticut Associated Press Broadcasters' Association award for Best TV Weathercast (2006, 2008, 2009, 2012), and three-time winner of the Communicator Award of Distinction (2012, 2013, 2026) ... Paul was voted Best Local Television Personality by the readers of Fairfield County Weekly Magazine (2012) ... Paul was inducted into the Housatonic Community College Hall of Fame and received the Distinguished Alumni Award (2012) ... Follow Paul at https://bsky.app/profile/paulpiorekwicc.bsky.social/

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Drama Over Tropical Storm Sandy Continues to Unfold

The drama of Tropical Storm Sandy continues to unfold this week. The big question is how much of an effect the storm will have on southwestern Connecticut late this weekend into the start of next week. The European model is suggesting a huge impact on southwestern Connecticut. Once the storm passes over Cuba, we'll have a much better idea as to where it is headed. A hurricane or tropical storm in mid-to-late October is extremely rare. However, if the storm does strike, it would occur on the one-year anniversary of last October's memorable Nor'easter.

The various computer models for early next week continue to show Tropical Storm "Sandy" moving north out of the Caribbean, while an upper level trough of low pressure swings eastward from the Midwest. There is a decent consensus that the trough will interact with "Sandy" and will continue to support its northward movement. However, the exact position of these steering features will ultimately determine whether the storm impacts the Eastern United States or stays chiefly out to sea.


So the range of possibilities is still anywhere from "no impact" (GFS model) to a very significant impact (European and Canadian models). But an extremely unusual upper-air pattern and storm track would be required for the worse-case scenario of heavy rain and winds. So, we are still at the "wait and see" stage for this potential system, which again could have a minimal impact or a significant impact or something in between.

Joe Rao, the meteorologist at News 12 Westchester, wrote, "Actually I have come up with an analog, but it involves a Winter set-up: The Blizzard of February 6 &7, 1978. Those of us "old timers" will remember that on Monday morning, February 6, 1978, a low pressure system was positioned 175 miles east of Elizabeth City, North Carolina. It would have passed harmlessly out to sea well to our south, except there was a rapidly digging shortwave cutting across the Great Lakes that ultimately captured and intensified the offshore low before the morning was over, literally dragging it back toward the mainland on a highly anomalous northwest trajectory (sound familiar?).

"Eventually, the shortwave and the surface low became 'vertically stacked' south of Long Island, where the storm took 24-hours to perform a small 'loop-de-loop' before finally moving on its way late on February 7. Parts of Long Island and southern New England were buried with three to four feet of snow. Tropical cyclones that adversely affect the Northeast US usually move either on southwest-to-northeast or south-to-north paths; but I don't ever remember a tropical system coming at us on a southeast to northwest track."  

At any rate, it should be a very interesting couple of days ahead. As for the short-term forecast, today will be mostly cloudy and cool with light sprinkles or a few light showers and a high temperature in the lower 60s. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a low of 44 to 52 degrees. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of afternoon sun and a high in the lower 60s. Friday and Saturday look fine. But the big question mark occurs later Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned.

Paul

Monday, October 22, 2012

October a Harbinger of Winter?

Here we go again. This month's average temperature is running nearly two degrees (+1.9) above normal through yesterday. If October's daily average temperature finishes above normal, it will mark the 20th straight warmer-than-normal month across southwestern Connecticut. The last time the average monthly temperature fell below normal was February of 2011.

However, the warmer-than-normal average temperature this month may carry more significance as far the as the long-term forecast is concerned. Ralph Fato took a closer look at the October mean temperature departures for Bridgeport and Syracuse, New York, since 1990 and compared the results to the subsequent four months to see if there was any correlation.

Interestingly, seven out of nine times (78%) when October's average temperature was above normal by at least +0.50 degrees, the following Winter was warmer-than-normal. The only two exceptions were the Winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11. Take a look at the following chart which Ralph created. Click the chart to see a larger version.


The Winters of 1990-91, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures each month from October through February. The two colder-than-normal Winters which followed mild Octobers are prominent on the graph. You'll see the red outline below the normal (0 degrees) average temperature.

It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues this year. All signs are pointing to a colder and snowier Winter-than-normal, but the climatological statistics don't lie: a warmer-than-normal October leads to a milder Winter nearly 80 percent of the time over the last 22 years! Thanks, Ralph.

Paul

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Orionid Meteor Showers to Peak This Sunday Morning

It may not be quite as exciting as the baseball playoffs or the political debates, but another meteor shower arrives this week. The Orionids have a very broad peak from October 17 through October 25, so just about any night should be good for observing, weather permitting. However, the meteor shower will peak early this coming Sunday morning. The meteor shower normally produces up to 20 "shooting stars" visible per hour before dawn, given good sky conditions.

“We expect to see about 25 meteors per hour when the shower peaks on Sunday morning, October 21st,” says Bill Cooke, the head of NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office. “With no Moon to spoil the show, observing conditions should be ideal. The Orionid meteor shower isn’t the strongest, but it is one of the most beautiful showers of the year. It really is a wonderful morning to be awake,” added Cooke. “Just don’t plan on going anywhere in a hurry.”



So, what are the Orionids? They are bits of debris shed long ago by Halley's Comet which the Earth intersects during its annual orbit around the Sun. The comet last came through the Solar System in 1985-86, and its nucleus shed a layer of dirty ice about six meters thick on average. During that time the dirt bits have spread all around Halley's orbit, which is why some of the particles now intersect the Earth even though the comet's orbit does not. The first known Orionid shower was recorded by the Chinese in 288 AD when "stars fell like rain." Astronomers first recognized it in 1864.

Across southwestern Connecticut, the meteor shower rises high in the Eastern sky, at least 45 degrees high, by 2 a.m. That's when the meteor activity begins to reach its peak. To watch the Orionids comfortably, bundle up, and bring a lawn chair. Find a dark spot with an open view of the sky. The less light pollution, the better the view will be. Sky and Telescope Magazine encourages viewers to "Arrange the chair so that any bright lights are behind you out of sight, bundle up, lie back, and watch the stars. Be patient."

We certainly won't be able to see the Orionids tonight or tomorrow night since an approaching storm will bring periods of moderate-to-heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm. But, conditions are expected to improve this weekend, just in time for the peak viewing of the meteor shower. Saturday will feature a few early showers followed by gradual clearing, while Sunday will offer a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 60s. Enjoy the show.

Paul

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Photos Illustrate the Beauty of Autumn

Ralph Fato of Norwalk took these following photos which display the beauty of Autumn in southwestern Connecticut. Ralph is a regular contributor to this site, and is a photographer, weather observer, and weather historian.


Paul

Monday, October 15, 2012

Remembering the Devastating Flood of October 14 & 15, 1955

The following was written by Brent M. Colley on the 50th anniversary of the October 14 & 15 devastating flood and printed by the Norwalk River Watershed Association

In 1955, the worst natural disasters to strike Connecticut since the hurricane of 1938 occurred within a two-month span. Two hurricanes, one tropical storm, and a pair of floods ravaged homes and businesses throughout the state in the months of August and October.

The August disaster was a result of back-to-back hurricanes in mid-August 1955. Hurricanes Connie and Diane arrived toward the end of a wetter-than-usual Summer, combining to drop over 24 inches of rain on the Northern regions of Connecticut between August 13th and August 20th, leaving record levels of flooding and widespread havoc in their wake.



Many Connecticut rivers, particularly the Housatonic, Naugatuck, Still, Quinebaug, Mad, and Farmington, overflowed their banks as never before; towns and cities in Litchfield and Hartford counties were particularly hard hit. The downtowns of many cities were devastated, including Winsted where the downtown was completely washed away. Property damage mounted into the tens of millions of dollars. Almost 100 people were killed, an estimated 4,700 were injured, and countless others were left homeless.

Surprisingly, towns and residents of the Norwalk and Saugatuck Watershed in the Southwestern section of Connecticut did not sustain rainfall accumulations as high as those to the north and were spared of flood conditions in August. Their time was yet to come.


The Cross Street Bridge in Norwalk, underwater, collapsed, and buried in debris. This was the highway from New York to Boston.

In October, a four day tropical storm dumped an additional 12-14 inches of rain on southwestern New England. This event was not as widespread as the August storms; however, the Flood of October, 1955, was devastating to the local communities along the Norwalk and Saugatuck Rivers. Millions of dollars and several lives were lost as a result of the rains that fell between Friday Oct. 14, and Monday Oct. 17th, 1955. 

Newspaper reports from several local publications varied greatly on the amount of rain and the amount of time in which it fell. These numbers varied from the 12.58 inches reported by Georgetown Weatherman's George Howes to as much as 13.88 inches reported in Ridgefield. The time frame also varied from 36 hours to 48 hours depending on the source of information. Regardless of the exact amount and time frame, a great deal of rain fell upon an already saturated watershed on the weekend of October 14th, 1955.


The dam broke and was washed away at the Gilbert and Bennett factory in Georgetown.

All of Fairfield County was hit, but Branchville, Georgetown, Norwalk, Wilton, and sections of Ridgefield were hit worse, because of the Norwalk River. According to Charles Howes, Georgetown's weather observer, and his assistant, Conrad Borgensen. Starting at 7am on Friday morning, Mr. Howes recorded .62 inches by 5:30pm, and another 2 inches by midnight. By noon Saturday, another 2.23 inches had fallen. During the next 24 hours, 7.82 inches of rain was dumped upon this area.

By mid-afternoon Saturday, the Georgetown Fire Department and all available men were stationed at the bridges into town and at Branchville. The danger: fire and/or explosions from the washed-out gasoline tanks of the Branchville Motors garage, their contents riding the crest of the flood, causing alarm for several hours.

By 6pm the Norwalk River had flooded Route 7 from Branchville Station to just south of the Georgetown Motors garage. The Branchville train station, businesses, and homes in the area were swamped, the bridge near Branchville cemetery completely washed away.

Shortly after 6pm residents were evacuated from Branchville and Georgetown, some by boat, others by heavy-duty trucks. Residents who did not have relatives or friends they could not reach in the area were taken to the Georgetown Firehouse where they remained overnight.


Bridge approach washed out entering Wilton from New Canaan (on the Silvermine River). A dog checks it out.

The Press reported the Peatt family on Mamanasco Lake brought in boats and "went to Branchville to rescue some people whose houses were surrounded by still rising waters of the Norwalk River."


A house in Norwalk that has become an island in a turbulent river. The floodwaters had dropped from from their peak when this shot was taken.

Nazzareno Ancona reported seeing the gas station on Route 7 flooded with water half-way up the garage door, water coming in the back door and coming out the front door "bringing everything with it," he said.

The dam at Perry's Pond, on Route 53, above Georgetown (now Route 107) gave way a little before 9pm Saturday night sending a rush of water into the heart of Georgetown. In addition, there was a landslide about a half mile up Route 53 (now Route 107), but cars were able to get through.

At 9pm a northbound train out of Norwalk came to a halt in the "wilds" between Honey Hill and Seeley Roads in Cannondale. The stalled train and its 83 passengers would remain stranded for the next 14 hours until three U.S. Army helicopters were able to airlift them to safety in a rescue mission that spanned 3 hours. They were all transported to Danbury via buses.

By 10:30pm water was 4 feet deep in the center of Georgetown. Factory pond was so high that residents later reported water up to their porches on Portland Avenue.

The nearly 8 inches of rain that fell between Saturday and Sunday taxed the dams along the Norwalk River, in all likelihood already fatigued by the storms of August, to such an extent that at approximately 10:30pm the dam at Great Pond gave way, sending a surge of water through the Norwalk River Valley with such force that all dams and most of the bridges in its path crumbled in its wrath.

The concrete bridge on Route 7, which is parallel to the railroad trestle (between DeLuca's Hardware and Bob Sharp), crashed into the river just before 11pm Saturday night, and shortly after that the trestle, undermined by the flood waters, collapsed as well, leaving the tracks still spanning the river, but with no visible means of support.


Temporary bridge for Route 7 over Norwalk River.

At approximately 11pm, there was an audible "pop" as the embankment surrounding the the dam that had served the Gilbert & Bennett factory for over 100 years gave way sending water levels in Georgetown and through the factory to heights estimated from 8 to 12 feet deep.

Connery's Lumber Yard was washed away when the dam broke at the factory, and evidences of it could be found as far down the Norwalk River as Cannondale. It's safe to say Harold Connery was a good humored man. Following the Flood, Harold was asking all his customers downstream if they had received the shipments of lumber he sent them.

The dam at the "old mill" (Old Mill Road) went shorty after the dam at the factory gave way, sending more tons of water down the valley.

As dams to the north succumbed to the avalanche of water surging down the valley, Cannondale and Wilton were next in the river's path of destruction. Flood waters inflicted heavy damage on the New Haven Railroad tracks at several points in Wilton. The trestle in Cannondale, just below what was left of the Cannon Grange Hall, collapsed. At the northern approach to the Cannondale trestle, the tracks twisted crazily off their embankment; and were seriously undermined at several other points throughout Wilton.

Four Wilton bridges spanning the Norwalk River - at Honey Hill, Seeley, Old Ridgefield, and Kent Roads - were wiped out, as were bridges at Silver Spring and Cedar Roads. Washouts made other bridges at Old Mill Road, Wolfpit Road, Arrowhead Road, and Cannondale impassable; but these washouts and others in Silvermine were patched up with gravel on Monday and Tuesday by town road crews and contractors.

In houses along Cottage Row in the center of Wilton which frequently experienced cellar floods but nothing worse, the water rose above the main floors- almost to the ceilings in the Grover Bradley and George Barringer homes. The home of Mrs. Millie Beers in South Wilton was twisted off its foundation. Mrs. Beers was rescued by two firemen.

The Silvermine River in the southwest corner of Wilton also went on a rampage. Several families along the river fled their homes as the raging waters threatened to wash them away. Many evacuees spent the night with neighbors; several families slept in the Wilton Congregational Church and parsonage, the firehouse and town hall.




At Wall Street in Norwalk, more details of the destruction along the Norwalk River.


Over in Redding the damage was primarily roadway and bridge wash-outs along the Saugatuck and its tributaries. The small brook that courses down Route 53 (now 107), at the top of the Glen Hill, became a raging torrent undermining the road there. The road was passable until late Monday afternoon when, S. Harold Samuelson, first selectman of Redding, ordered the road closed.

Halfway down the Glen Hill, a landslide blocked the highway until Sunday afternoon, when a bulldozer pushed a one-way lane through it. At the foot of Glen Hill, the road was impassable over the bridge at the junction of Routes 53 and 107; the bridge withstood the raging Saugatuck, but the roadway was completely washed away on either side. On Monday afternoon, a car was still standing in a deep hole that had been the approach to the bridge, leaning crazily against a telephone pole. Further downstream was another car in the river. Its occupants had abandoned it on the road Saturday night.

Upstream was the site of the tragedy which saddened the whole town. At the Diamond Hill Road bridge, Edward Arthur Phoenix, 53, and his wife, Veronica, 47, of Fox Run Road lost their lives on Saturday night when the Phoenix's car was swept into the river below the bridge. Mr. and Mrs. Phoenix were coming home from dinner at the home of Mr. and Mrs. Matthew Blair of Great Pasture Road.

A three and one-half hour frantic and near successful attempt to rescue Mrs. Phoenix from a tree, after her husband had been swept to his death, made the tragedy even more horrifying. While volunteer firemen and neighbors tried vainly to reach her in the darkness she clung doggedly to the tree, aware of the efforts to save her. But at length her strength failed and she fell into the river and drowned. At one time the rescuers were within 20 feet of the tree but were turned aside by the tremendous force of the torrent.

An Army helicopter spotted the woman's body Monday morning, 1,500 feet from the Diamond Hill Bridge. Mr. Phoenix's body was recovered early Tuesday about 50 feet further downstream.

All approaches to West Redding were blocked; not a bridge was left intact by the tributaries of the Saugatuck River. Route 53 all the way to Bethel was blocked, the only route to Bethel or Danbury left open was the Black Rock Turnpike, which people reached by devious ways.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Weatherkids off to a Super Start

I visited with the third-graders at Nichols School in Stratford this week. It was my second Weatherkids program of the year. The kids, teachers, and administrators are always excited when I visit their schools. Nichols School was one of the first schools I visited when Weatherkids began back in the mid 1990s.

"Thank you again for taking the time to visit our classroom and film the live broadcast and the weather kids," wrote third-grade teacher Janet McSally. "The children have sent you thank you notes that you should be receiving shortly. We loved the live broadcast. I showed it to them when they returned from Art. I am sending you the banner in the mail tomorrow, so you should receive that shortly.

"What a wonderful experience for all of the children.  Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to visit with the children. This was an experience they will cherish forever. We plan on performing The Crooked Man (song) at our whole school assembly in January."

"I am not surprised to read such glowing remarks about you," wrote News 12 Connecticut's promotions manager Carlos Austin. "Your commitment to both your work and community is exemplary and it truly shows. Your message is one that resonates with kids and they will remember it forever.  Thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to educate, entertain and bring smiles to the faces of so many of our youth.  It's appreciated, sir!"

This year, I've taken the program to a higher level by giving the LIVE weather forecast from the classroom at 10:01 and 10:11 a.m. each week. It's a thrill for everybody. Weatherkids is a sponsored franchise of News 12 Connecticut.


Nichols School's Third-Grade Weatherkids by PaulWXman

Paul