Prepare Now for Sandy's Arrival

Now is the time to prepare for the impending coastal storm, which should arrive Sunday night through Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center is expecting Sandy to make landfall late Monday night and early Tuesday morning across southern New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic. However, the GFS model, which indicated that Sandy would move out to sea earlier this week, is moving the storm over Old Saybook Monday night. If that scenario unfolds, it would be devastating for southwestern Connecticut.

The biggest issue with the impending storm will be the wind. Tropical storm force winds may gust between 60 and 70 miles an hour Monday into Tuesday. Naturally, power outages will be more than likely, considering what happened last year during Tropical Storm Irene and the October Nor'easter. Coastal communities need to take extra precautions due to the strong Southeast wind and astronomically high tides due to the Full Moon.



The Full Hunter's Moon happens this Monday at 3:50 p.m. EDT. The tide will be high at Bridgeport harbor Sunday at 11:21 p.m., Monday at 11:33 a.m., Monday night at 11:59 p.m., and Tuesday at 11:33 a.m. The tides are forecast to crest at 6.88 feet Sunday night, 7.59' Monday midday, and 6.81' Monday night. However, expect much higher tides due to the Full Moon and the tropical storm force winds. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are more than likely.

As of 8 o'clock this morning, Sandy was a category one hurricane with 80 mile-an-hour winds, located about 480 miles South-Southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. It's moving Northeast at 10 miles an hour, and the central pressure is 28.64 inches. Here is the projected forecast map for Hurricane Sandy.

There are several things you can do to prepare for such a storm. First, make sure your roof gutters and storm drains are cleared of any leaves, dirt, or debris. They're bound to be clogged this time of the year due to the falling leaves. If you have a sump pump or pumps in your basement, test them before the storm hits. Have flashlights, batteries, bottled water, and canned food in case the power is out for an extended period of time. Also, make sure your car and generator --- if you have one --- are full of gas. You don't want to have an empty tank during a severe storm. Let's hope for the best.

Paul

Tracking Hurricane Sandy

Here is my latest forecast for Hurricane Sandy and its potential impact on southwestern Connecticut Monday and Tuesday of next week:

Sandy Forecast by PaulWXman

Paul

Drama Over Tropical Storm Sandy Continues to Unfold

The drama of Tropical Storm Sandy continues to unfold this week. The big question is how much of an effect the storm will have on southwestern Connecticut late this weekend into the start of next week. The European model is suggesting a huge impact on southwestern Connecticut. Once the storm passes over Cuba, we'll have a much better idea as to where it is headed. A hurricane or tropical storm in mid-to-late October is extremely rare. However, if the storm does strike, it would occur on the one-year anniversary of last October's memorable Nor'easter.

The various computer models for early next week continue to show Tropical Storm "Sandy" moving north out of the Caribbean, while an upper level trough of low pressure swings eastward from the Midwest. There is a decent consensus that the trough will interact with "Sandy" and will continue to support its northward movement. However, the exact position of these steering features will ultimately determine whether the storm impacts the Eastern United States or stays chiefly out to sea.

So the range of possibilities is still anywhere from "no impact" (GFS model) to a very significant impact (European and Canadian models). But an extremely unusual upper-air pattern and storm track would be required for the worse-case scenario of heavy rain and winds. So, we are still at the "wait and see" stage for this potential system, which again could have a minimal impact or a significant impact or something in between.

Joe Rao, the meteorologist at News 12 Westchester, wrote, "Actually I have come up with an analog, but it involves a Winter set-up: The Blizzard of February 6 &7, 1978. Those of us "old timers" will remember that on Monday morning, February 6, 1978, a low pressure system was positioned 175 miles east of Elizabeth City, North Carolina. It would have passed harmlessly out to sea well to our south, except there was a rapidly digging shortwave cutting across the Great Lakes that ultimately captured and intensified the offshore low before the morning was over, literally dragging it back toward the mainland on a highly anomalous northwest trajectory (sound familiar?).

"Eventually, the shortwave and the surface low became 'vertically stacked' south of Long Island, where the storm took 24-hours to perform a small 'loop-de-loop' before finally moving on its way late on February 7. Parts of Long Island and southern New England were buried with three to four feet of snow. Tropical cyclones that adversely affect the Northeast US usually move either on southwest-to-northeast or south-to-north paths; but I don't ever remember a tropical system coming at us on a southeast to northwest track."  

At any rate, it should be a very interesting couple of days ahead. As for the short-term forecast, today will be mostly cloudy and cool with light sprinkles or a few light showers and a high temperature in the lower 60s. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a low of 44 to 52 degrees. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of afternoon sun and a high in the lower 60s. Friday and Saturday look fine. But the big question mark occurs later Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned.

Paul

October a Harbinger of Winter?

Here we go again. This month's average temperature is running nearly two degrees (+1.9) above normal through yesterday. If October's daily average temperature finishes above normal, it will mark the 20th straight warmer-than-normal month across southwestern Connecticut. The last time the average monthly temperature fell below normal was February of 2011.

However, the warmer-than-normal average temperature this month may carry more significance as far the as the long-term forecast is concerned. Ralph Fato took a closer look at the October mean temperature departures for Bridgeport and Syracuse, New York, since 1990 and compared the results to the subsequent four months to see if there was any correlation.

Interestingly, seven out of nine times (78%) when October's average temperature was above normal by at least +0.50 degrees, the following Winter was warmer-than-normal. The only two exceptions were the Winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11. Take a look at the following chart which Ralph created. Click the chart to see a larger version.

The Winters of 1990-91, 2001-02, and 2011-12 featured significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures each month from October through February. The two colder-than-normal Winters which followed mild Octobers are prominent on the graph. You'll see the red outline below the normal (0 degrees) average temperature.

It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues this year. All signs are pointing to a colder and snowier Winter-than-normal, but the climatological statistics don't lie: a warmer-than-normal October leads to a milder Winter nearly 80 percent of the time over the last 22 years! Thanks, Ralph.

Paul

Orionid Meteor Showers to Peak This Sunday Morning

It may not be quite as exciting as the baseball playoffs or the political debates, but another meteor shower arrives this week. The Orionids have a very broad peak from October 17 through October 25, so just about any night should be good for observing, weather permitting. However, the meteor shower will peak early this coming Sunday morning. The meteor shower normally produces up to 20 "shooting stars" visible per hour before dawn, given good sky conditions.

“We expect to see about 25 meteors per hour when the shower peaks on Sunday morning, October 21st,” says Bill Cooke, the head of NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office. “With no Moon to spoil the show, observing conditions should be ideal. The Orionid meteor shower isn’t the strongest, but it is one of the most beautiful showers of the year. It really is a wonderful morning to be awake,” added Cooke. “Just don’t plan on going anywhere in a hurry.”



So, what are the Orionids? They are bits of debris shed long ago by Halley's Comet which the Earth intersects during its annual orbit around the Sun. The comet last came through the Solar System in 1985-86, and its nucleus shed a layer of dirty ice about six meters thick on average. During that time the dirt bits have spread all around Halley's orbit, which is why some of the particles now intersect the Earth even though the comet's orbit does not. The first known Orionid shower was recorded by the Chinese in 288 AD when "stars fell like rain." Astronomers first recognized it in 1864.

Across southwestern Connecticut, the meteor shower rises high in the Eastern sky, at least 45 degrees high, by 2 a.m. That's when the meteor activity begins to reach its peak. To watch the Orionids comfortably, bundle up, and bring a lawn chair. Find a dark spot with an open view of the sky. The less light pollution, the better the view will be. Sky and Telescope Magazine encourages viewers to "Arrange the chair so that any bright lights are behind you out of sight, bundle up, lie back, and watch the stars. Be patient."

We certainly won't be able to see the Orionids tonight or tomorrow night since an approaching storm will bring periods of moderate-to-heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm. But, conditions are expected to improve this weekend, just in time for the peak viewing of the meteor shower. Saturday will feature a few early showers followed by gradual clearing, while Sunday will offer a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 60s. Enjoy the show.

Paul

Photos Illustrate the Beauty of Autumn

Ralph Fato of Norwalk took these following photos which display the beauty of Autumn in southwestern Connecticut. Ralph is a regular contributor to this site, and is a photographer, weather observer, and weather historian.

Paul